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215
FXUS62 KMLB 221915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAT CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND...

TONIGHT...MID AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD IS BECOMING BECOMING BETTER
DEVELOPED WITH TOWERING CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE AND ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND WITH A LATE COLLISION POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
ORLANDO METRO INTO LAKE COUNTY. COULD BE A FEW STRONG LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS BEFORE STORM COVERAGE DIMINISHES LATE IN
THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD SE GA
ON SAT WITH THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL. MOISTURE REMAINS
EXTREMELY LIMITED ABOVE 700 MBS WITH PWATS FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES.
EXPECT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND WITH 20-30 PCT CHC
OF STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LWR 90S ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS.

SUNDAY...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH SW WINDS
EARLY BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE
WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS INTO THE
SCATTERED RANGE FOR NRN SECTIONS AND THE INTERIOR. HIGHS LOWER 90S
COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD KEEP
POPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT.

MON-THU...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY WX PERIOD SHAPING UP
FOR NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL STRETCH AND
ELONGATE E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY...DEFORMED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NE CARIB THAT IS FCST LIFT ACRS OR E OF THE BAHAMA BANK MON/TUE.
DEEP E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...ALLOWING RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE TO
PUSH ACRS CNTRL FL. GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A MID LVL THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE FL PENINSULA BY TUE NEXT WEEK WITH H70 TEMPS
WARMING TO ARND 10C...H50 TEMPS AOA -2C. THE LACK OF THERMAL
INSTABILITY ALONE WARRANTS BLO CLIMO POPS...BUT THE PREVAILING DEEP
LYR NE FLOW CLINCHES IT. WILL CAP PRECIP CHANCES AOB
30PCT...CONTINUED WARM WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MRNG MINS IN
THE L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL NEAR INTERIOR TERMINALS THRU
00Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR KLEE TO 01Z-02Z. BECMG VFR AFT 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME NE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
5-7 FT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG NE FETCH TUE-WED BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC AND TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP SEAS/SWELLS ELEVATED INTO TUE-WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS MAY DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR SAT
AFTN AND AROUND 40 PCT ON SUNDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR BOTH AFTERNOONS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY
NE WINDS DEVELOPING MON-TUE WILL POSE A FIRE WX CONCERN.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS:
                TODAY 8/22    SAT  8/23     SUN  8/24
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1980)     96 (1988)     95 (1989)
ORLANDO         100 (1980)     99 (1915)     99 (1915)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     95 (1960)     95 (1960)
VERO BEACH       95 (1993)     96 (1980)     95 (1947)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  30
MCO  76  97  77  95 /  20  30  10  30
MLB  75  93  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  73  93  73  92 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  78  97  79  96 /  20  30  20  40
SFB  78  97  79  96 /  20  20  10  30
ORL  79  97  80  96 /  20  30  10  30
FPR  73  92  73  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....ULRICH








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