000
FXUS62 KMLB 240949
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
448 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009


...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH WED...
...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...OLD FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF
TODAY AND WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOIST SSW-SW FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE THE
LIFT OVER THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS AND POPS WILL INCREASE AS IT DOES
SO. HAVE STARTED THIS MORNING OFF DRY BUT INDICATE CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND RISING TO GOOD CHANCE (~50) TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
THUNDER MENTION FOR ROUGHLY SOUTHERN HALF OF EC FL (OSCEOLA-BREVARD)
SWD. THIS GIVEN THE BETTER INSTABILITY AS MAXES REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH LOW-MID 80S
VERSUS MID-UPPER 70S NORTH AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF NORTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS INTO EARLY WED ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S GIVEN THE WARM SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AND CLOUD COVER.

WED/WED NIGHT...A +100KT H25 JET MAX PUSHING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
COMBINE WITH AN H50 VORT AXIS AHEAD OF IT TO SPIN UP A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG A THETA-E BOUNDARY OVER THE GOMEX BY DAYBREAK
WED.  THE LOW WILL FORM IN A STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW GENERATED BY A
LOW/MID LVL TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION...AND A DLM
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS.  THE PREVAILING WRLY FLOW WILL
PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY ACROSS FL ON WED...THEN INTO THE WRN
ATLC WED BY NIGHT.

DLM MOISTURE OVER THE GOMEX IS PLENTIFUL WITH BOTH H100-H70 AND
H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES AS HIGH AS 70%.  FURTHERMORE...WITH
RESPECTABLE MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED H25 JET AND
H50 VORT AXIS...PRECIP CHANCES ON WED WILL BE HIGH.  WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW BEFORE COMMITTING TO
CATEGORICAL POPS...AND THE GFS IS SHOWING ITS POCKETS OF EXTREME 3HR
PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT ARE ONE OF THE PRIMARY FLAGS FOR CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK.  STILL...THE BASIC ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY FOR A MUCH NEEDED
RAIN EVENT FOR CENTRAL FL ON WED.  WILL GO WITH 70% AREAWIDE FOR
NOW...BUT THESE MAY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE DLM SWRLY FLOW WILL OFFSET THE LACK OF
SUNSHINE FROM HIGH CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S/L80S WILL BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

RAIN WILL END FROM THE NW WED NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE ERN
SEABOARD AND H100-H85 WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW...PUSHING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA.  WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR
AREAS S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPS
ALSO A FEW DEGS ABV CLIMO (U50S/M60S).  PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND N OF I-4 WITH READINGS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO (M50S).

THU/THU NIGHT...NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AS
A DLM HIGH PRES RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY.
COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE...ENDING THE NEED FOR
ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE GULF STREAM.  THE NW WINDS
WILL DROP MAX TEMPS BACK TO NEAR CLIMO (L/M70S)...WHILE CLEARING
SKIES THU NIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP ~10-12F DEG FROM THE
WED NIGHT MINS (M40S/L50S).

FRI-MON...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN INTO THE SW ATLC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  N/NW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER FRI/SAT WITH MAX
READINGS IN THE M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M40S FRI NIGHT AND
M/U40S SAT NIGHT.  WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E/NE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING OCEAN MODIFIED AIR TO BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM LOW STRATUS AND BR THROUGH
14Z...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR ESP 10-13Z. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS TO PERSIST TODAY WITH SCT SHRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ISOLD TSRA PSBL...ESP NEAR AND S OF OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTING BACK N FROM S FL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10KT AND VEERING FROM N-NE TO E-SE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS BACK NORTHWARD FROM S
FL. A FEW TSRA PSBL THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.

WED-SAT...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WED/WED NIGHT AS A
STORM SYSTEM PULLS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THEN UP THE ERN
SEABOARD.  WINDS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY FROM THE S/SE TO THE N/NW WED
AFTN AND EVNG AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OPEN ATLC.  A
MODERATE TO FRESH NWRLY FLOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE LOW ON THU AND
FRI AS THE TRAILING RIDGE BEHIND THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE DEEP S.
LIMITED FETCH LENGTH NEARSHORE SHOULD KEEP SEAS AOB 6FT...BUT A NRLY
SWELL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SHOULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED NEAR OR AT
SCA LVLS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  67  75  63 /  40  50  70  20
MCO  79  66  79  65 /  40  50  70  20
MLB  80  69  80  67 /  40  50  70  30
VRB  81  70  80  66 /  40  50  70  30
LEE  77  65  77  62 /  40  50  70  20
SFB  78  66  78  64 /  40  50  70  20
ORL  79  66  79  66 /  40  50  70  20
FPR  81  71  80  66 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....BRAGAW