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584
FXUS62 KMLB 201956
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT/TUE...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT PUSHED REMNANT FRONTAL
BDRY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD NWD A LITTLE...RESULTING IN
WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL
FLOW BACKS SLIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE CARVING ITSELF OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COS COULD
TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO
LIMIT INSOLATION SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH
A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSH
TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTH LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...A DEEP MOISTURE RIBBON EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE THE MOISTURE RIBBON
HOOKS UP WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MA/NY/NJ/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH GULF AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND OVER
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING A MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER
MORE UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE IT. THIS SET UP INTRODUCES AN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SITUATION WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND MUCH
LESS...20 OR LESS...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BIG DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN CLOUD COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SOUTH TO NORTH
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS REACHING WELL
INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 60S IN THE LESS CLOUDED AREAS TO THE MID 60S IN THE MORE
CLOUDED AREAS.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE
AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD TS PSBL KMLB-KSUA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/TUE NIGHT SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL
VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS
REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY.

TUE NIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF MEXICO
ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND PATTERN TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE WITH SOME 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI-SAT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRI INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS SAT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER






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