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281
FXUS62 KMLB 211941
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY
MELBOURNE TO TAMPA AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FADE INTO
TONIGHT. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ORLANDO AREA THROUGH LATE AFT INTO THIS EVENING. INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS LATE IN THE AFT/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER WITH
MODELS SHOWING A PRETTY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
OVER THIS REGION EXPECTING ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN
ISOLATED. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH PAST MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER DECREASING. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP OVER A FEW AREAS
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING FRONT AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MON...INCREASING 850-700MB SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TOMORROW. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY THAT INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

TUE...AXIS OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AROUND 60/70 PERCENT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WED-SAT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT
THE MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGH..60
POP...FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO AND IS REPLACED BY
RIDGING ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED
STATES. RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 50 PERCENT THU THEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT
THU THROUGH SAT AS EASTERLY PULLS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW USUALLY HAS THE RAIN AND STORMS
START EARLY AT THE COAST THEN QUICKLY PUSH INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND. HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING SHRAS/TSRAS PRODUCING
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH LATE AFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KMCO.
HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST TOWARD THE
I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAY SEE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A FEW AREAS TOWARD 10-12Z MONDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITHS SWELLS CONTINUING SEAS UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.

MON-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLC TWD CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE/EASTERLY TUE AND REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  73  86 /  10  40  20  60
MCO  72  89  72  87 /  20  60  30  70
MLB  73  86  76  85 /  20  60  30  70
VRB  71  88  75  85 /  20  60  40  70
LEE  72  89  72  88 /  10  50  20  60
SFB  72  89  73  88 /  20  50  30  60
ORL  72  89  73  88 /  20  60  30  60
FPR  71  88  76  85 /  20  60  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WX/RADAR....PENDERGRAST







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