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750
FXUS63 KMKX 261540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE
CHILLY LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TODAY. MAY NEED TO BUMP HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A DUSTING OR SO THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG AROUND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE DELAYED IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AND MAY HAVE TO DELAY EVEN LONGER IF LATEST
TRENDS CONTINUE.

LIGHT SNOW WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A DUSTING OR SO THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW LINGER THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL MOVE EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO
EASTERN TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT.  THE 150 KNOT UPSTREAM JET MAX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT ONLY WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 500
MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE AREAS THIS EVENING.  A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TO EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WITH BOTH OF
THESE SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A DUSTING.

WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SNOW ON GROUND AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING
POTENTIAL...BUT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL ADD SOME LAKE
WARMING.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO ERODE
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEADILY COOLING THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT THE
SATURATED LAYER TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH
THE MORNING... SO LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE LIKELY.

THE 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C IN THE MORNING AND COOL TO -12 BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS MEANS STEADY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
20S EXCEPT TEENS TOWARD THE DELLS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING... THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUAL
SATURATION FROM THE TOP DOWN. IN ADDITION... A SHORTWAVE AND THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE LINE.

THE WAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY FRIDAY... ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS...
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS WHILE THE WEAK LIFT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MY LINGER... THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND
ELIMINATE ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THUS... ADDED A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS ARE DRY BY
THIS TIME... SO IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE
A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WARMTH... SO WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE ECWMF IS STILL
WARMER THAN THE GFS... BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
40S ON SATURDAY. THE GFS WANTS TO GIVE US DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... BUT I AM NOT BUYING INTO THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORCING DOES NOT SUPPORT THAT IDEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME
QUITE DIFFERENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OVER WI FOR WED SO I STUCK
WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH TRAPPED BELOW A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET.  WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING...ADDED LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD EXPAND THE MAINLY MVFR
STRATUS INLAND DURING THE DAY.

OVER WESTERN AREAS BY MADISON...LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY VFR CIGS THERE...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WEST
OF MADISON.

MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




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