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678
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








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