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[Printable]
736
FXUS62 KMHX 280036
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
736 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
COVER. THE SFC LOW HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE THE ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT
SHOWERS WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
SHOWER CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC
FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS. NO IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...YIELDING SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING EAST...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES JUST NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE
FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG





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