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177
FXUS62 KMHX 251343
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH N/NW
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH FORECAST MAXIMUM
VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 70S AREA-WIDE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SAT...WINDS ARE GENERALLY N/NW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ON
ALL AREA WATERS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW
AND INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA







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