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[Printable]
347
FXUS62 KMHX 250748
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
348 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM FRIDAY...STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 500
MB TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE OCEAN BY MID
MORNING PER LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STILL
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF
OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH
AS ABOUT 2000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL. THINK THE
PRIME TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE
ROUGHLY 20Z TO 03Z AND THINK GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...OUR NORTHERN AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED
REGION FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER
60S COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND GIVEN THE INCREASING S/SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.

TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME
MVFR CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THE 3 KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
REGION BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD
LAYERS BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-
VFR. WILL JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND
LOWER CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM
THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION
WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







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