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420
FXUS62 KMHX 240007
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH WARM FRONT STILL DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH EASTERN NC TONIGHT. TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BULK OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN GA AND SC MOVING THIS WAY.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS...WITH HRRR
DOING A GOOD JOB HANDLING CURRENT ACTIVITY. STILL LOOKING AT A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP OVERNIGHT...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT
WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH IF TIMING IS RIGHT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STRONG TSTMS. WITH STRONG LIFT AND PWAT
VALUES NEARING 1.75 INCHES OVERNIGHT EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. MAIN THREATS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SVR WX
WILL BE BTWN 10PM-4AM.

EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY EARLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...THEN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRYING ABOVE 7H...BUT INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH DEEP SOUTH TO WEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE TUE. DESPITE DECENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MDLS SHOW VERY LITTLE QPF AS FORCING IS LIMITED MON EVENING SO WL
JUST HAVE SMALL POPS IMD CST. AS FRONT DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE WILL
CONT SMALL POP CST THRU EARLY AFTN. LATE TUE AS UPR TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE W WILL BEGIN TO SEE SFC LOW FORM WELL TO THE
S AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF LIFT N INTO THE AREA...WL KEEP POPS
LOW AS TIMING IN DOUBT. WILL REMAIN MILD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN 50S TO NEAR 60 OBX. WEAK CAA TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

WET PERIOD IN STORE TUE NIGHT AND WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE S
TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NNE NEAR CST WED. STRONG ISENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND
CONT THRU THE DAY WED. HAVE CAT POPS MOST AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED. N WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD BE QUITE GUSTY AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50 INLAND AND 50 TO 55 CST.
RAIN SHLD TAPER OFF AND END QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE WED EVENING AS
LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NE. DECENT CAA BEHIND THE LOW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS BY THU MORN.

COOL AND DRY WX EXPECTED THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE THE W. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
30S INLAND TO 40S BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/NARRE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BTWN 01-05Z...AND HAVE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGREEMENT AND OBS UPSTREAM.
BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE BTWN
03-06Z...AND ISOLATED TSTM WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS COULD LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH 08/09Z BUT WILL CONTINUE IFR. IFR
COULD LINGER INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THINK GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MAINLY IFR
TO DVLP LATER TUE NIGHT AND CONT INTO WED EVENING. GUSTY NNE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WED. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND SHLD CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING SLIGHTLY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
TONIGHT AS SE WINDS INCREASE BECOMING SLY 20-30KT WITH GUSTS
35-45KT. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5FT NORTH OF HATTERAS TO
6-10FT SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING AT 7-14FT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GRADIENT
WILL BE LOOSENING SOME AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 205 PM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MON EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO WRLY LATE
MON NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT MON EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NW TUE MORN THEN NE 10 TO 15 KTS LATE TUE AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
FORM TO THE S. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE. AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE S TUE NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT N EXPECT NE WINDS
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR 25 KTS BY DAYBREAK WED. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE NIGHT SEA WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FEET. MDLS DIFFER
WITH LOW TRACK WED...ECMWF JUST INLAND...GFS NEAR COAST AND
NAM/SREF OFF THE CST. WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH MAINLY
JUST OFF CST TRACK KEEPING GUSTY NE TO N WINDS OVER THE REGION.
FOR NOW HAVE STRONG SCA WINDS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TRACK COULD SEE
SOME GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FEET OUTER
WTRS WED. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NE WED NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7
FEET LATE WED NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO WNW WINDS 15 TO 25
KTS THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS CONT IN THE 4 TO 6
FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/CQD
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD







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