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443
FXUS62 KMHX 171908
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH N/NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES FOR EWN/OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF IFR.
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THU
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.



&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRICKY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELL ENERGY. CURRENT OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS
3-6FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WAVEWATCH
AND SWAN CONTINUE TO BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE SE WELL
FROM DISTANT TC. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS
AND HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY
EARLY THU MORNING. MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE
WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF
OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...CQD/JME










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