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[Printable]
762
FXUS62 KMFL 310723
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  80  90  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  50  10  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEACHES
THROUGH 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




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