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651
FXUS62 KMFL 261736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES BEFORE
NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CDFNT AS OF 14Z IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND
SFC OB PLOT...LOCATED FROM NAPLES TO JUST NW OF WEST PALM BEACH.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT HAS PROVEN SUSTAINABLE AS IT CROSSED NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN MARKEDLY
INCREASED FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING. SHOWERS DO CONTAIN SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AFTER THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GRADUALLY FALL...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.

HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR GULF
BEACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...

WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING, WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS AS COLD FRONT
OVER NORTH FLORIDA CROSSES THE PENINSULA BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TO FALL APART AS
IT DROPS SOUTH, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
SURVIVE INTO APF. THIS IS EVEN LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH CURRENTLY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND 15Z AND JUST ABOUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY NARROW LINE ALONG
THE FRONT (ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE) JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE NAM IS STILL
SUGGESTING 40-50% CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR MIAMI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECREASING SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN LOW LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE NAM IS SUGGESTING IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE BUT QPF WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
DESCRIPTION OF THE LINE AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. IN ADDITION, NONE
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT TO MUCH MORE THAN
0.75" OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SO ANY CHANCE OF RAIN INDEED LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL.

MOST OF THE COLD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY EQUALING THE READINGS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET. NO MATTER OF ITS POSITION, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VEERING THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUT
AT ANY RATE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OR MOISTURE RETURN SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
PLEASANT AND DRY.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THEN ALL WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING WIND AND SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE SCA WILL EXTEND UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY AND AT THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE ATLANTIC WITH DELAYED
SUBSIDING OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A RETURN TO A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL BEGIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  68  52  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  69  54  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  67  54  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK




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