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[Printable]
014
FXUS62 KMFL 010805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF VARYING STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER ROUGHLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST OFF OF NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN STUCK. AT THE
SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE ANCHORED
FROM NORTH FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE CAROLINA COAST. BEING SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A JUICY SUPPLY OF AROUND 2" PWAT AIR IN OUR
NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...A FEW AREAS OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THIS INVERTED TROUGH...OF COURSE FIRST
PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE REACHING THEIR DESTINATION.
WHEN COMBINED WITH SE TO E SURFACE FLOW...MANY INGREDIENTS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS WIND REGIME...AND IF FLOW IS
WEAK ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME WATER PROBLEMS...AS HAS BEEN
STATED PREVIOUSLY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERIOR AND THE
GULF COAST. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVING EAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA INT MONDAY...BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. BY
LATER TUESDAY...THE PESKY UPPER TROUGH IS DEFEATED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE...AS IT BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND
OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ULTIMATELY
THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID
LEVELS...SUCH THAT LATE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH NOT
MUCH SURFACE FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3
FEET...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO MONDAY...BUT
KEEP IN MIND UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  89  78 /  50  30  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 /  50  30  40  40
MIAMI            89  78  91  79 /  60  30  50  30
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  70  30  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




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