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551
FXUS62 KMFL 300752
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...STORMY PATTERN THROUGH WEEK`S END...

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.

THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...

THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z. /60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  91  77 /  70  40  60  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  70  50  60  30
MIAMI            92  79  90  79 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           89  80  90  79 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD




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