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486
FXUS62 KMFL 210611
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. MODERATE ENE WINDS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE ASHORE.
/85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
EXTENDED SCA SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
TEMPORALLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL WILL ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
OVERNIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE EAST COAST BEFORE
DAWN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES...SO KEPT VCSH AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE
TO DRIFT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WATERS.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND COLLIDE WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL PRESENT IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN MID 50S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING OF THIS COMING WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE
20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  71  78  73 /  30  20  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  73  79  74 /  40  30  60  40
MIAMI            78  72  79  74 /  40  30  60  40
NAPLES           78  67  81  70 /  10   0  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD




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