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[Printable]
712
FXUS62 KMFL 211358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
958 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA, THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
FROM SATELLITE WE FIND THE EASTERLIES ARE USHERING IN PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS
MORNING IS 86 F WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS, MORE
SO THAN YESTERDAY. NEARLY 7 DEGREE LAPSE RATES, WHILE THE
MORNING SOUNDING FROM MIAMI SHOWS 850 TO 500 LAPSE RATES ARE
AROUND 6 DEGREES WITH A 500 MB TEMPERATURE OF -7.7 WHICH IS A BIT
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

THE SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BE SUBDUED A BIT TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY DUE TO THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE MAY KEEP MOST OF THE STORMS FROM GOING SEVERE. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, THE THREAT REMAINS FOR A FEW DISCRETE SEVERE
CELLS TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL DRY OUT THE ENVIRONMENT AND
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT, STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT.
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE LESS WIDE SPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER
AN EAST COAST DOMINANT SEA BREEZE REGIME.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OUT OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WILL BE FORCED THE CURVE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDANCE AS OF THIS MORNINGS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014)
GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF AFTER 17Z. A FEW SHRAS
COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES LATE THIS MORNING WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HRRR. MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST AS THE GULF BREEZE PENETRATES INLAND. THEREFORE PLACED A
TEMPO GROUP IN FOR KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NEAR 10 KNOTS, AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR A POSSIBLE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  79  90  78 / 20 10 30 0
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  81  91  80 / 20 20 20 -
MIAMI            60  80  90  80 / 20 10 20 -
NAPLES           60  78  91  79 / 60 20 40 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...BWC
AVIATION/RADAR...RIZZO






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