000
FXUS62 KMFL 100529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1229 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF S FL
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS LEAVING IMPROVING CEILINGS AND THE REST
OF THE PERIOD IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND BE GUSTY
AT TIMES. /TINGLER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010/

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

..FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ELSEWHERE...

THERE REMAINS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE FCST REASONING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOW
TEMPERATURE FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO AGREE THAT A STRONG/DEEP CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE MID ATLC CST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THIS LOW...LEADING TO A
RAPIDLY DVLPG AND STRONG SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND
CST. THIS PROCESS WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE FRONTS CURRENT POSN AND
MVMT...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF SOUTH FL BY OR
JUST AFTER 06Z. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN HIGHEST FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE NORTHWARD...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL PSBL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA MAINLY FROM MID/LATE AFTN THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO LITTLE INSTABILITY
FOR MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BREEZY/WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL TOMORROW.

WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IF IT DOESN`T START OUT THAT
WAY...AND BREEZY WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...GOOD MIXING...AND
20-25KT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
MOST AREAS TO AROUND 70 RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW
NIGHT...BUT AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE WILL NOSE DOWN THE FL
PENINSULA AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS. SKIES SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY...AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMBINE
TO ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO BE FCST JUST
BELOW 1330M...AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF
GLADES...HENDRY...AND NORMALLY COLDER PARTS OF INTERIOR COLLIER
COUNTY. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF SOUTH FL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TO FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE AG AREAS OF
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THAT WILL NOT BE QUITE DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE...AND MAY DECOUPLE SOME AND ARE TYPICALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE AREAS AT THIS
TIME. ELSEWHERE...LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
ACROSS METRO/COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
SUBURBS OF FT. LAUDERDALE ALONG THE SAWGRASS EXPWY AND U.S. 27...AND
NORMALLY COOLER SOUTHERN/WESTERN SUBURBS OF MIAMI SUCH AS HOMESTEAD
AND THE REDLANDS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 40 IN THE NAPLES AREA
AND AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 ACROSS THE DOWNTOWN/BEACH AREAS OF FT.
LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI. WITH WINDS STAYING UP...WIND CHILLS COULD DROP
BELOW 35F FOR 3 OR MORE HRS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS METRO/COASTAL PALM
BEACH COUNTY...COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES...AND MOST
OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN THESE AREAS.

ONE MORE DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY THOUGH IT WILL BE COOL AS
HIGH CLDS BEGIN TO INCRS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACRS OR EVEN
TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH FL FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH A WEAK BUT FAST
MVG SFC LOW. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL STILL BE COLD THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT PSBLY NOT AS COLD REGION WIDE AS MID/HIGH CLDS MAY START
TO INCRS. WILL HOLD TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABV FREEZING ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS MENTIONED ABV FOR NOW. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE INCRSG
CLOUDS WITH A POTENTIALLY STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN DVLPG DURING THE DAY AS OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCRS...LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT USING THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING FOR
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY BE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FRIDAY AND IT COULD
VERY WELL BE A COOL/RAW DAY IF THE CLDS/RAIN DVLP EARLY ENOUGH.
THEREAFTER...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE GULF CST
ALLOWING CONDS TO CLEAR OUT SOME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH
THE AMPLIFYING ERN CONUS UPR TROUGH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PERIODS
OF HIGH CLDS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL INCRS OUT
OF THE S/SW BEFORE SHIFTING W/NW AROUND OR JUST ABV 20KTS ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 20KTS
WEDNESDAY...WITH NW WINDS PREVAILING INTO THURSDAY. SWELLS AFFECTING
THE ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 9FT IN THE GULF STREAM AND 8FT IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. ROUGH CONDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT COASTAL COLLIER
AND FAR SOUTH DADE COUNTY TOMORROW AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE RGN. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS IN THE MIXED LAYER TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD HELP SFC DEWPOINTS
TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30F...WHICH SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
SEVERAL HRS OF RH`S BELOW 35 PERCENT ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN. SIMILAR
CONDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH LOW RH`S PSBL ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. RH`S WILL LIKELY STAY A TOUCH HIGHER
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS IS TYPICAL IN NWRLY FLOW
PATTERNS. COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY MAY BE EXEMPT FROM THE LOW RH`S EACH
DAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW HOLDING DEWPOINTS HIGHER...A TYPICAL
POST-COLD FRONT SCENARIO IN NWRLY FLOW AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  36  63  44 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  42  65  49 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI            68  43  66  50 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES           62  40  63  45 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL
     PALM BEACH-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-
     INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO
     BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND PALM BEACH.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
     BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BISCAYNE
     BAY-LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
     20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT