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656
FXUS62 KMFL 021415
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME
THUNDERSTORMS BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL AS TO
CORRESPOND WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS
FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS WERE...AT 500MB...AT OR WARMER THAN THE
NAM...WHICH WAS FORECASTING WARMER H5 TEMPS THAN GFS. THUS...USING
NAM AS GUIDANCE...COOLER H5 TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION TODAY. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF A SHOWER. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINAL KAPF WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z. AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
RELAX TODAY...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TERMINAL KAPF COULD HAVE MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN OVER
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO SLOWLY COOL FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
-8C THIS EVENING...BEFORE COOLING DOWN TO -9C FOR WEDNESDAY AND TO
NEAR -10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...BEFORE
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
GET BACK TO MORE OF A LATE TIME SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEK BEFORE
SWINGING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 FEET OR LESS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  89  79 /  40  30  50  50
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  50
NAPLES           91  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK




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