weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  
[Printable]
932
FXUS62 KMFL 281149
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS...AND ABOVE PWATS JUST OFF PALM
BEACH COUNTY HAVE MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS
DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP
SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT
WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH
STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD
COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN
THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT
KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY. CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS
VALID AT KPBI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  93  80 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            93  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  30
NAPLES           90  79  91  79 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE