000
FXUS62 KMFL 230530
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FLOW
PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS THE MORNING...NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME IF TERMINALS WILL
BE AFFECTED...WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. BY 23/15Z...SE FLOW
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED WITH VCSH ONLY FOR KAPF AND KPBI DUE TO
THEIR PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT. BY 24/03Z...WINDS WILL SLOW
DOWN AGAIN LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY 23/18Z WITH VCSH POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PUSHED NORTHEAST INTO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND BE OUT OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS BY THE TIME OF THE
EVENING MARINE PACKAGE GOES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. SO WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER WORDING
FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT
IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE A SHOWER OR TWO THAT COULD WORK
INTO THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FROM THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT ON
THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA FOR TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO ADD FOG WORDING OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS...AND
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL MORE LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
METRO AREAS SEEING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS COULD EVEN GET CLOSE TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE. BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND
LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW ISSUE THE ADVISORY IF THE CONDITIONS BECOME
WARRANTED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009/

AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS AT ARND 10000` EAST TERMINALS TO 25000`
ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP WITH 25000` CIGS LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME SE 7-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z
AND AT KAPF, SW ARND 8 KTS ARND 18Z. LEFT IN VCSH AFT 14Z OR 15Z
KPBI AND KAPF. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG FOR KPBI OR KAPF ATTM, BUT
THE CHC IS THERE. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN GULF
OF MEX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...MOST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, SO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT. LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER A MOIST SW DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP ESPECIALLY AREAS TO THE NORTH AND VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WL NOT
SUPPORT TSTMS AND WL ONLY INDICATE SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WL BEGIN TO BUILD AND ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A
CHANCE OF PRECIP. BELIEVE GFS STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AS IT STILL SHOWS UNBELIEVABLE OMEGA VALUES WITH
EQUALLY RIDICULOUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (NEAR 8 INCHES) OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER INSIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WL STAY AWAY FROM THE HIGH POPS ADVERTISED
BY GFS AND WL ONLY GO UP TO SCT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. ON WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MAKING IT DIG SOUTH TO NRN
GULF OF MEX THURSDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL REPLACE IT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN A GOOD 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE MAINLY
E-SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS AOB 4 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED AS MIN RH SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVEL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  83  71 / 30 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  74 / 20 20 30 40
MIAMI            85  73  85  73 / 20 20 30 40
NAPLES           85  69  85  70 / 30 20 30 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...17/ERA