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373
FXUS62 KMFL 261339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ATTM. SOME SITES WEST OF LAKE OKE DROPPED BY AS MUCH AS 10
TO 14 DEGREES IN JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. IMPRESSIVE
BY SOUTH FLORIDA STANDARDS. BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR
CHANGING LITTLE THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DROPPING ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING OR AROUND NOON. AHEAD OF IT LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH BROKEN SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MAY BE THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WITH THAT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS FIELD WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY THEN. SKIES WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHER THAN UPDATING GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES OF KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
TAF SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR
POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST TAF STIES.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY UNTIL 15Z THEN GO NORTHWEST FOR REST OF TODAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GOING DRY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL 15Z FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.

THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR WHEN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE CEILING AND VIS DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  51  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  48  71  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS




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