weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  
[Printable]
005
FXUS64 KMEG 282318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 4-7
KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE