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593
FXUS64 KMEG 242300
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
600 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORD...MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE RIVER AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT LESS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS BEING LESS FAVORABLE WITH
CINH INCREASING AND DEWPTS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 50S AND NOT
MOVING INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL WATCH TO SEE IF THE FRONT ITSELF
CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE SLOW MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE OUT.
-ABS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SEVERE
AT TIMES AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS THERE
IS OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT BE TOO MUCH COLDER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY
SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH HELP BRINGING WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

BY SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL START TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
EASTERN TEXAS SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. BY
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT SO MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SPC
HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND
THEN SLOW DOWN SOME. THIS WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF RAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND START TO ROTATE
AND HAVE LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS WILL MEAN CLOUDY AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY WILL A CHANCE OF
RAIN REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.

ARS

AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS CYCLE AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVERSES ALL FOUR SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ADVECTING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
LOWER...BUT REMAIN IN VFR CRITERIA...THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR KJBR AROUND 22Z...KMEM AROUND 23Z...KMKL AROUND
00Z...AND KTUP AROUND 03Z. CIGS AND VISBY WILL LOWER INTO MVFR
CRITERIA AS THE FRONT PASSES EACH SITE. HAVE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AS WELL...BUT FROM A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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