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FXUS64 KMAF 221101

601 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.



A low level jet over the Permian Basin is lifting to the northeast
with KMAF radar indicating low level winds diminishing.  Therefore,
will not carry low level wind shear at KMAF.  VFR conditions will
prevail areawide through the period.  Thunderstorms will develop
again this afternoon/evening, but probabilities are too low to
carry at any TAF sites.  67


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.






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