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430 FXUS64 KMAF 291121 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 521 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015 .DISCUSSION... The latest Aviation Discussion is included below. && .AVIATION... A cold front will push south through all area terminals through 29/18Z with gusty north to northeast winds in it`s wake. Ceilings and visibilities will stay VFR through the day, and even overnight as surface winds gradually decrease. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/ The stage is set for another round of unsettled weather beginning tonight and continuing through at least Saturday night. A cold front is currently sagging south through southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. This front will continue to push south as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley and east coast today. Behind this front temperatures will get knocked back to near normal values this afternoon. In addition, strong northeast winds will channel through Guadalupe Pass behind this front tonight and Friday morning and a High Wind Warning has been issued for that area. In the upper levels a potent southern stream system currently along the west coast will close off and intensify and move slowly southeast across the desert southwest and then east across Mexico the next several days. Ahead of this low, strong large scale forcing is expected to produce a high probability of widespread precipitation beginning tonight through Saturday night. Also, as this upper low moves toward the region the northern stream will continue to supply colder low level air. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for a mixed bag of rain, snow, sleet tonight through Friday and or Saturday night across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains. Still not sure how much snow accumulation will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains because the NAM model is showing a pronounced and persistent mid level warm layer while the GFS model is not. If it turns out that the warm layer is minimal, than a few inches of snow and sleet could accumulate in the higher elevations of the Guadalupes. Outside of that region, the best chance of any accumulating snow will be across the northern third of Lea County New Mexico tonight through Friday night, but less than 1 inch is expected in a best case scenario at this time per a blend of model soundings. By Sunday the upper level trough axis is expected to approach the area with the upper low sinking south and weakening through Mexico. The better forcing will diminish and shift away from the area as the upper low sinks south, so precipitation chances will be on the decrease. In addition by this time period the lower levels of the atmosphere are progged to warm up enough for the precipitation to fall as rain. By Sunday night through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure system is forecast to continue to weaken and move across Mexico with precipitation expected to remain south of the forecast area. Temperatures will moderate to normal by next Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 58 35 41 35 / 0 30 50 80 BIG SPRING TX 61 36 44 36 / 0 10 30 70 CARLSBAD NM 58 36 38 35 / 10 60 70 80 DRYDEN TX 74 46 51 44 / 0 10 20 70 FORT STOCKTON TX 65 39 47 41 / 0 20 40 80 GUADALUPE PASS TX 53 31 37 32 / 10 60 80 80 HOBBS NM 56 33 38 35 / 0 40 70 80 MARFA TX 63 37 48 37 / 0 30 40 80 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 36 43 37 / 0 20 40 80 ODESSA TX 59 36 44 37 / 0 20 40 80 WINK TX 63 39 46 38 / 0 40 60 80 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ 67/12 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland