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[Printable]
919
FXUS64 KMAF 212324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered light showers continue across the area this evening but
rainfall amounts will be light. No TS is expected. MVFR CIGs will
also be scattered around but are mainly expected in southeast NM
and the upper Trans Pecos 06-18Z. Conditions will improve the last
6 hours of the TAF period to VFR.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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