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[Printable]
139
FXUS64 KLZK 281555 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
955 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER A
NOTABLE WIND SHIFT WILL BEGIN IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH
ALL TERMINALS EXPERIENCING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BY 15Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE MILD ONE MORE TIME...AND
THEN CHANGES ARE COMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING
EXTREME. IF ANYTHING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BRINGING A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
POLAR JET PROVIDING COLD AIR TO FOLLOW.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENTERING THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER EARLY IN THE
DAY...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF IF IT HAPPENS.

RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESREAD SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS INTO MEXICO. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA. THE GFS SEEMS TO HOLD THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE AREA A LITTLE TOO LONG. ECMWF HAS THE MOISTURE EXITING THE
AREA BEFORE THE COLD AIR REACHES THE STATE. LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILD OVER THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...61









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