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667
FXUS64 KLZK 221107 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME DZ WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. RESULTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO LIFR
THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
RAINFALL...BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO SCATTERED TO MENTIONED MUCH MORE
THAN VCSH...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. LLQ MAY ALSO SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WITH INSTABILITY A BIT HIGHER IN SERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE WEST
AND NW. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AREAS THAT WERE SEEING A CLEAR SKY ON SUN EVENING HAVE SINCE SEEN
CLOUDS RETURN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WEST OF THE STATE...AND WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OVER
THE STATE IN THE FLOW ALOFT. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY THIS
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS TIME GOES
ON.

SFC FLOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS MON AS THE SW UPPER FLOW ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE STATE. KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF SERN AR COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AS THIS
WILL BE THE AREA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THIS REGION OF
THE CWA...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE.

BY THIS MON EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTING TO THE NE OF THE STATE...WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SE ACROSS
THE CWA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH WITH
THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SOME SHRA AND TSRA WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF
THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

A LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SEEN EARLY ON TUE AS THE FRONT WILL BE
SE OF THE STATE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVES WILL BE MOVING OVER
AR IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF TUE AND INTO WED AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FURTHER...AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE STATE. AHEAD OF THIS
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND LIFT NE FROM LA INTO NERN MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW UNDER THE UPPER
VORT MAX LIFTING ACROSS AR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN LIFT NE OF THE STATE BY WED NIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
ENDING FROM SW TO NE.

THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARM NEAR SFC TEMPS THE
MODEL DATA KEEPS SUGGESTING. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES...WILL THE NEAR SFC WARM LAYER BE DEEP ENOUGH TO MELT ALL
THE SNOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE SFC. HAVE MENTIONED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING AS THE NEAR SFC WARM LAYER MAY
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANGES
IN THE OVERALL VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE. WHILE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HRS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIP...THE LATEST DATA IS AGAIN SUGGESTING A COLDER AND
WETTER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS TIME
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAINFALL...WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE UNDER THE MAIN
UPPER VORT MAX WHERE LIFT AND PRECIP INTENSITY MAY BE
HIGHEST...ALONG WITH THE COLDEST AIR THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN.

AS YOU MAY HAVE FIGURED OUT WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT PRECIP TYPE AND HOW MUCH..IF
ANY...WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATION WILL BE SEEN AT THE SFC. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT REFINEMENTS AND CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS REGARDING ANY WINTRY WX AND IF ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
SEEN. QUIETER...ALTHOUGH COOLER CONDITIONS...WILL BE SEEN FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SRLY SFC FLOW
RETURNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS
NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN
QUITE A BIT...AND WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC AND UPLIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...AND TROUGHING DIGS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  44  51  36 /  40  20  30  50
CAMDEN AR         62  49  56  39 /  30  20  50  50
HARRISON AR       53  38  48  32 /  40  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  46  52  36 /  30  20  40  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  47  53  37 /  30  20  40  50
MONTICELLO AR     62  51  58  40 /  40  30  50  60
MOUNT IDA AR      57  44  51  34 /  30  20  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  41  49  34 /  40  20  20  30
NEWPORT AR        57  45  52  36 /  40  20  40  60
PINE BLUFF AR     61  49  55  38 /  30  20  50  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  43  51  35 /  40  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         57  44  52  37 /  40  20  40  50
STUTTGART AR      59  47  54  38 /  30  20  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






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