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838
FXUS64 KLZK 021324 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
824 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE OUTFLOW OF THE FIRST COMPLEX. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPS. ALL MORNING UPDATES OUT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION HAS BEN OCCURRING AT KHR0 AND KBPK AND WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KLIT SHORTLY. IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
OTHER TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN AN MCS IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR AT THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SET ON THIS ONE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACCORDING TO HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE AS THE MCS PUSHES SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE AR/OK
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS
THE AIR MASS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL HAVE BEEN
WORKED OVER OR NOT WARM ENOUGH FOR INITIATION DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT BUT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS FORECAST. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE SHIFTING
FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST AND BACK INTO CANADA. IN THE
WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOC SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT...A
LEGITIMATE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
MONTANA AND INTO NEBRASKA DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME. WHILE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY...THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL ACTUALLY HAVE A
STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH BEHIND IT TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A MOIST RETURN FLOW REGIME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WHERE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
GREATER...BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH TOO.
DIURNAL TRENDS WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING ALONG FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AN LEAVE IN SOME CHANCES
POPS IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES DO EXIST...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THE DIFFERENCES
BEING WHAT THEY ARE...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTON IS TO SPLIT THEM
AND USE THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND LOCATED
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BEST TIMING WOULD
PLACE THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND REACHING THE LOUISIANA BORDER BY EARLY SUNDAY WHERE IT
EFFECTIVELY STALLS BEFORE WASHING OUT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH A VERY
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY ON SATURDAY WITH 90S POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OTHERWISE 80S WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MEX NUMBERS STILL LOOK OVERDONE AND ONCE
AGAIN WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECWMF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     90  73  92  73 /  60  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         92  74  94  74 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       85  70  90  71 /  90  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  74  92  74 /  50  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  74  93  74 /  40  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     91  74  92  73 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  73 /  50  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  71  91  71 /  90  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        89  72  91  72 /  60  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  92  73 /  40  10  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  92  72 /  70  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         91  72  91  72 /  50  30  20  10
STUTTGART AR      90  72  91  72 /  40  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224






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