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349
FXUS64 KLZK 241815
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
115 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING BRIEF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING AND WILL TAKE
ALL OUT WITH UPDATE. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION
AND TO THE EAST...WHILE UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE
WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO AR
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE TEMPS WERE ALSO
IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERALL WILL SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
STATE WITH THE UPPER NW FLOW. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       77  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







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