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341
FXUS61 KLWX 291806
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
206 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS WEDNESDAY/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F.

COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...60S IN THE WEST. ODD FOR JULY STRATOCU HAVE POPPED UP WITH
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS. THAT SHOULD ALL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WITH THAT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BY EARLY WED
MORNING...EVEN SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT 60 TO 65 IN THE
URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED TDA. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG FOR CHO-MRB EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTED.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC TODAY. EXTENDED AND EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADV TO ALL OF
POTOMAC AND BAY S OF SANDY POINT TIL 5 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. HIGHEST REPORTED
GUSTS ARE ACTUALLY ON THE UPPER AND MID POTOMAC WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE AS OF 130PM.

STARTING TONIGHT...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ532>537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS






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