695
FXUS64 KLUB 032331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS
RAMPING UP AGAIN INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE A BIT OF BLOWING
DUST...BUT WITH RECENT MOISTURE...VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW
VFR LIMITS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAIN BE FROM A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHEST WINDS WILL ROUGHLY BE
IN THE SAME LOCATION AS TODAY...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. MODELS SHOW A MOUNTAIN
WAVE FORMING TOMORROW AFTERNOON OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING SO MIXING WILL
NOT BE INHIBITED FOR TOMORROW. MIXING UP TO 600MB CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS AT THIS LEVEL AROUND 50KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL NOT REACH THIS HIGH...NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS OBSERVED TODAY. THICKNESS
VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF BLOWING DUST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z...THEREFORE
FULL HEATING IS EXPECTED. JDV

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR 2...THE COLDEST BEING
TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 30 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE EVENING
BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO PUMP UP MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS FROM
THE GOMEX. THIS WILL HELP SET UP FOR THE NEXT POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
ALONG THE CALI COAST. THE SOLUTIONS THEN DECIDE TO SPLIT PATHS
AROUND THE GREAT DIVIDE WITH THE EURO TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY PATH
AND THE GFS TAKING A SOUTHERLY ROUTE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE SOUTHERN
ROUTE IS MORE COMMON WITH CLOSED LOWS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN CREATES AN OPEN WAVE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE LOW MORE CLOSED AND
SIMILAR TO THE EURO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSITION. WHAT IS BECOMING
MORE CLEAR IS THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN AT LEAST THE EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FA WHERE WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A DRYLINE ON SATURDAY. A LITTLE
LESS CERTAIN IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS PROGS A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEST TEXAS...PROVIDING A SECOND SHOT OF
CONVECTIVE WEATHER...WHERE AT THE EURO...WITH MUCH LATER
TIMING...PROVIDES WRAP AROUND PRECIP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE DECENT...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL REMAIN
A MYSTERY. ALDRICH

FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GENERALLY SQUASH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREAS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE FOUND. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 25
AND 30 MPH AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL. ERC LEVELS ARE STILL NORMAL OR
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WHICH
WILL PRECLUDE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  67  24  49  29 /   0   0  10   0   0
TULIA         41  69  26  51  27 /   0   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  72  27  52  28 /   0   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  74  30  54  29 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  75  30  56  29 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   46  79  31  54  32 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  78  31  54  31 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  78  35  58  31 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPUR          47  78  35  57  32 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  83  38  58  31 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26