128
FXUS64 KLUB 030816
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WRN ID WILL DIG TO THE CO/UT
BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  A SUBTROPICAL JETLET TO OUR WEST WILL
MERGE WITH JET ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH.

EARLY THIS MORNING...DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH HAS BEEN RACING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO PAC NW LOW.  LLJ OF 40KT ABOVE 500 AGL
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WTM REESE SODAR.  THIS IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THOUGH FOR SOME LOCALES...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO NEAR THE ESCARPMENT
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WELL MIXED SFC-650MB
ENVIRONMENT...WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN FROM THE
30+ KT SPEEDS AT H7 TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE.  HEURISTIC ANALYSIS
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS UP AROUND 25KT.  LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH SUSPECT THAT GIVEN THE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS THAT IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE CLOSED UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO COMMAND OUR
ATTENTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH IT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT EJECTS NE TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED BLUSTERY COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM BEING MOST
BULLISH AS IT ENTERS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AOA 05/00Z VERSUS 3-6 HRS
LATER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER NAM SOLUTION AS IT TENDS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
BEHAVIORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FRONTS IN THE NEAR TERM. AS SUCH...ONE
MORE WARM DAY WILL OCCUR TOMORROW WITH MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
EXTREME SRN TX PANHANDLE /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S/ THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED FROM SW KS TO
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTN...THUS PROMOTING WRLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK /DRYLINE TYPE
FEATURE/ WITH SRLY WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS OFF THE CAPROCK /PWATS
AOA 1.30 INCHES/. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
AND MOIST LOW LEVELS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW EVENING...STORMS WILL
BE PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE SAID AREA. SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH STRONG
LEVELS GIVEN SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1-1.5 KJ/KG...40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AND LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -5 DEGREES C. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP /05/00Z-06Z/ FOR THE COLD
FRONT WILL ADVECT IN MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...THUS SHUNTING THE
MOISTURE AXIS AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 05/06Z.

THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS DRIVEN BY A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE
NORTH TO NERLY WIND SPEEDS THAT COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA /31 MPH OR GREATER/...THANKS TO PROGGED PRESSURE RISES OF
5-8 MB/3 HRS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE NEARS THE FA...THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TING TO 3-6
DEGREES C SUGGEST TEMPS WILL FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. HENCE...A LIGHT FREEZE/FROST MAY
DEVELOP. IF LATER MODEL RUNS TREND COLDER...ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
BEYOND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT MAY BE WARRANTED.
PERSISTENT NRLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE WARMING
BEYOND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY
SUNDAY MORNING /LOW TO MID 30S NW TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE/ AS SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES
/EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING/. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
BEST LIFT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN UA RIDGE MARKS RISING HEIGHT
FIELDS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WARMING FROM THE 70S ON SUNDAY TO 80S
EARLY-MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  55  80  33  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         90  59  84  39  60 /   0   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     93  60  86  39  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     93  61  87  38  66 /   0   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       95  64  90  42  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   93  62  88  40  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  62  89  41  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  65  93  47  70 /   0   0  20  20   0
SPUR          96  64  92  46  68 /   0   0  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     93  67  92  49  70 /   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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