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128 FXUS64 KLUB 030816 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 316 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 .SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WRN ID WILL DIG TO THE CO/UT BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SUBTROPICAL JETLET TO OUR WEST WILL MERGE WITH JET ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. EARLY THIS MORNING...DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH HAS BEEN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO PAC NW LOW. LLJ OF 40KT ABOVE 500 AGL IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WTM REESE SODAR. THIS IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THOUGH FOR SOME LOCALES...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO NEAR THE ESCARPMENT ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WELL MIXED SFC-650MB ENVIRONMENT...WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN FROM THE 30+ KT SPEEDS AT H7 TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. HEURISTIC ANALYSIS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS UP AROUND 25KT. LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH SUSPECT THAT GIVEN THE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS THAT IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. && .LONG TERM... THE CLOSED UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO COMMAND OUR ATTENTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH IT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT EJECTS NE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED BLUSTERY COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM BEING MOST BULLISH AS IT ENTERS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AOA 05/00Z VERSUS 3-6 HRS LATER PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY FASTER NAM SOLUTION AS IT TENDS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE BEHAVIORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FRONTS IN THE NEAR TERM. AS SUCH...ONE MORE WARM DAY WILL OCCUR TOMORROW WITH MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN TX PANHANDLE /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S/ THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED FROM SW KS TO ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTN...THUS PROMOTING WRLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK /DRYLINE TYPE FEATURE/ WITH SRLY WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS OFF THE CAPROCK /PWATS AOA 1.30 INCHES/. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE AND MOIST LOW LEVELS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW EVENING...STORMS WILL BE PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE SAID AREA. SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH STRONG LEVELS GIVEN SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1-1.5 KJ/KG...40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -5 DEGREES C. THERE WILL ONLY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP /05/00Z-06Z/ FOR THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT IN MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...THUS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE AXIS AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 05/06Z. THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS DRIVEN BY A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE NORTH TO NERLY WIND SPEEDS THAT COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /31 MPH OR GREATER/...THANKS TO PROGGED PRESSURE RISES OF 5-8 MB/3 HRS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE NEARS THE FA...THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TING TO 3-6 DEGREES C SUGGEST TEMPS WILL FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. HENCE...A LIGHT FREEZE/FROST MAY DEVELOP. IF LATER MODEL RUNS TREND COLDER...ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT MAY BE WARRANTED. PERSISTENT NRLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE WARMING BEYOND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING /LOW TO MID 30S NW TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE/ AS SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES /EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING/. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST LIFT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL ENSUE THEREAFTER AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN UA RIDGE MARKS RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WARMING FROM THE 70S ON SUNDAY TO 80S EARLY-MID WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 89 55 80 33 57 / 0 0 0 10 0 TULIA 90 59 84 39 60 / 0 0 0 10 0 PLAINVIEW 93 60 86 39 63 / 0 0 0 10 0 LEVELLAND 93 61 87 38 66 / 0 0 0 10 0 LUBBOCK 95 64 90 42 68 / 0 0 0 10 0 DENVER CITY 93 62 88 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 0 BROWNFIELD 95 62 89 41 67 / 0 0 0 10 0 CHILDRESS 95 65 93 47 70 / 0 0 20 20 0 SPUR 96 64 92 46 68 / 0 0 10 20 0 ASPERMONT 93 67 92 49 70 / 0 0 20 20 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 26/29
