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625 FXUS63 KLSX 210103 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 803 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014 .UPDATE: Issued at 800 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014 Large mid/upper level low/vorticity maxima centered across western KS/OK will slowly move east across the Central Plains tonight and phase with the northern stream on Monday across the Midwest. The northern stream will be responsible for bringing a weak cold front currently across the northern Plains southeast into the northern reaches of our CWA by early Monday afternoon. Currently the greatest coverage of convection is located near the TX/OK panhandle region where the strongest vorticity advection and surface convergence was observed. Elsewhere, coverage is isolated to scattered at best. Believe that showers and thunderstorm coverage will be slow to increase from west to east across the area late tonight/Monday morning. Greatest chances and coverage to occur in the afternoon and early evening along the advancing cold front where low level convergence will serve as the focus. Further south diurnal instability will lead to isolated/scattered coverage, similar to what is occurring to our west today. Have increased temperatures from the St. Louis Metro and points northeast where dry time in the morning and early afternoon should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s despite increasing cloud cover. CVKING && .SHORT TERM: (Through Monday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014 Models continue to be a bit slower with onset of precipitation tonight. Will not see showers and a few thunderstorms til after midnight over central Missouri then slowly increase in coverage from west to east Monday morning. Surface based capes continue to be on the increase on Monday, between 500-1200 J/kg, so thunderstorms possible, though not expecting any severe weather at this time. Otherwise, mild conditions to persist with lows only in the mid to upper 50s tonight and highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Monday Night through Next Sunday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014 Cold front to slide through exiting forecast area by Monday evening, though some post frontal precipitation not out of the question, so have chance pops Monday evening, then precipitation comes to an end. Not a lot of caa behind this system, so lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s Monday night. Surface ridge to build into region on Tuesday with dry and mild weather through midweek. Highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows in the 40s Tuesday night. Next weather system to move into region Wednesday night and persist through Thursday night. Best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be during the day on Thursday. Then dry weather to return for the first half of the weekend before next system moves in Saturday night and Sunday. As for temperatures through the period, expect upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday and Friday with highs in the low 60s to low 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Byrd && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014 An upper level disturbance will combine with a cold front to produce sctrd precip...mainly from 12z on. VFR conditions will persist overnight with mid/high level cloudiness spreading out ahead of the storm system with light sthrly winds. Winds will generally become swrly during the day in advance of the cold front that is expected to push thru during the later aftn and evening. There may be some -shra or sprinkles prior to 12Z across cntrl MO...but don`t expect this activity to be significant. The coverage of precip may be a little higher across the ern Ozarks and on into swrn IL Monday morning. The better coverage and intensity of precip should hold off until aftn when daytime heating aids in destabilization. Conditions may deteriorate below the high end MVFR currently depicted if a convective cell of TSTM makes a direct impact on a terminal. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions expected except under some of the more intense convective cells that may impact the terminal tomorrow aftn. The cold front responsible for the precip ends the threat late tomorrow aftn or early evening and winds become WNW after FROPA. 2% && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX