The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.
003 FXUS63 KLSX 262151 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 351 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 NW flow is expected to continue thru Tue across the ern CONUS while a ridge extends along the Rockies. Main flow is across the Pacific NW while a cut off low continues to spin off the sthrn CA/Baja Coast. The closed low gets absorbed into the mean flow on Tue and flattens the ridge Tue night/Wed. Upper heights across the mid-MS Vly begin rising Tuesday night as a low amplitude ridge builds into the area for Wed ahead of the energy, which is the remnants of the closed low, approaches the region late Wed night into Thu mrng. All this while a separate nthrn stream short wave follows closely behind for Thu aftn/Thu evng. These two features will effectively reinforce the east Coast trough towards the end of the wk. At the sfc, weak low/clipper that produced the light snow across IL today will quickly exit to the SE this evng. Not much CAA behind this system despite NWrly winds. Temps are in the 50s and 60s in the air behind this system across the Plains today. Sfc ridge passes to the NE of the FA overnight allowing winds to become S/SSE by Tue mrng. New SFC low dvlps in the lee side trough on Tue in response to energy topping the ridge and tracks ENE to near KEOK by 6Z Thu. This puts the CWA in the warm sector on Wed. The 850 mb thermal ridge noses into the FA drng the aftn with temps ranging 8-12C, though soundings suggest we will not realize that potential, only mixing to near 925mb. Guidance indicates that most of the precip will remain north of the low track, so have just slight chance PoPs across the nthrn and ern portions of the CWA for late Wed night into Thu mrng. The low moves into the Ern Grt Lks Thu with the CAA on the backside of the storm returning temps closer to normal for the end of the wk. Another short wave comes onshore along the West Coast Wed night/Thu. This system is expected to be a player in a potential wknd storm system. There will likely be a significant E/W temp gradient across the CWA on Tue due to potential cloud cover along and east of the MS R on Tue and a better thermal profile with deeper mixing across cntrl MO on Wed. Temp gradient relaxes for Thu and Fri under CAA. Used a blend of MOS guidance along and east of the MS R on Tue due to expected cloud cover. Didn`t use the cooler MET guidance exclusively as it has had a cool bias recently. Went closer to the warmer MAV across cntrl MO on Tue. Went aoa guidance on Wed due the synoptic set up but didn`t get carried away due to the limited mixing. 2% .LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Monday) Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 The trough that moves onshore late in the wk cuts off over the wknd and slowly drifts south along the Baja peninsula. Meanwhile, another short wave drops out of Canada in the mean flow with height falls continuing into Sun until the trough axis passes Sun aftn/evng. GFS and ECMWF both have precip mvng into the area late Sat and continuing into Sun but differ significantly in the details. The GFS has a decent sfc low tracking from the nthrn Plains into the Grt Lks while the ECMWF has a weaker low mvng from the sthrn Plains into the SE. Guidance has been anything but consistent with this system having it one run and then not on the next so do not have a great deal of confidence in any solution attm. With colder air in place, the system bears watching. 2% && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015 Upper level disturbance moving southeast through the Midwest is producing spotty areas of light snow across parts of west central and southwest Illinois. KUIN had about 10-20 minutes of light snow which dropped vsby to IFR very briefly. Brief periods of IFR will be possible through the early afternoon as this area of snow moves southeast, but for the most part MVFR ceilings will prevail along and east of the Mississippi this afternoon with unrestricted visibilities. Expect VFR conditions to prevail over central Missouri at least into early evening. Should see a clearing trend this afternoon at least up to the Mississippi river, but then guidance brings another round of MVFR clouds down across the area this evening. MVFR ceilings will likely hang across the area through most if not all of Tuesday morning. Specifics for KSTL: MVFR ceilings will be scattering at Lambert over the next hour or two, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail after that until evening. There may be a few snow flurries in the area through 19-20Z as well, but do not expect snow heavy enough to affect flight conditions. Guidance brings another area of MVFR ceilings down from Iowa along the Mississippi during the mid to late evening hours. Looks like ceilings could fall below 2,000ft for a short period overnight tonight, but confidence is not high in that at this time. Ceilings between 2,000-3,000ft are expected to prevail through Tuesday. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX