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[Printable]
900
FXUS66 KLOX 230951
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OFFSHORE BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY/FRIDAY THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK DIURNAL
GRADIENTS WILL PREVAIL (WEAK ONSHORE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND
WEAK OFFSHORE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS).

FORECAST-WISE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER UNREMARKABLE.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT NIGHT...THERE
IS MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS REMAINING
STRATUS-FREE. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
BUT SLIGHT WARMING ALL OTHER AREAS. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
COMFORTABLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
DISTRICT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHEN IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL COAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SAN LUIS
OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH THIS PATTERN
WILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL
STRATUS COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND BIT MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICEABLE TUMBLE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...23/230 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






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