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[Printable]
406
FXUS66 KLOX 282125
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN TODAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO
ONSHORE BREEZES...BRINGING A COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY...THEN AN UPPER
LOW SHOULD BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
TODAY IS UNFOLDING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN FORECAST IN PLACES BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOURS OF HEATING
LEFT IN THE DAY SO NOT ADJUSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS.  THE CLOUDS ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ARE GONE AND AND SHOULD NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
BUT THERE ARE A FEW OFF LA COUNTY THAT MAY BE BLOWN IN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE LATER TODAY.

EXPECT THE COOLING TO CONTINUE TOMORROW AS THE WEAK EDDY RETURNS AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME STRATUS TO THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE LA
COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS
AND VLYS.  STILL THINKING THE CENTRAL COAST IS SEEING ITS COOL DOWN
TODAY SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY THERE.

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
SAT NIGHT AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
SLO COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A TENTH. SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL COVER THE COASTS AND VLYS.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD
AND OVER OUR AREA...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.  ITS A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY AMOUNT TO DRIZZLE OR SOME
SPRINKLES.

HUZZAH FOR CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS WHICH ARE FINALLY
GETTING A HANDLE ON THE APPROACHING LOW!  IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT RIDGE DEVELOPING ON MONDAY CAUSING SOME CLEARING...DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE WARMING.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO A POSITION WEST OF SFO ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND A COLD FRONT WITH SW FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR AREA
FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MODELS STILL
DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT
AND WHERE EXACTLY THE PEAK RAIN SHOULD FALL...BUT EXPECT AROUND 6
HOURS OF DECENT RAIN PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTS AND
VALLEYS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE IS
FORCED UPSLOPE.  STILL THINKING THAT THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE SNOW
LEVELS VERY HIGH MAKING THIS A RAIN ONLY EVENT.

EXPECT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT KEEPING THE
SKIES CLOUDY AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SKY MAY BE DOWN TO ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS WILL
BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  OF COURSE...THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THE STORM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL BE DELAYED AGAIN
AND ITS RAIN WILL ARRIVE A DAY OR TWO LATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...BUT MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN THE OUTLOOK NOW THAN A DAY AGO.
&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
MODERATE TO STRONG MODERATE SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME MODERATE SOUTH AFTER 29/14Z. WEAK
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST. WEAK CAPPING MARINE
INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE WILL DIFFER BY PLUS 1.2KFT SATURDAY
MORNING AND ISOLATED CLOUD FIELD WILL BECOME SCATTERED.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1715Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 2644 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS 007 BETWEEN 29/11-29/16Z AND CHANCE
CIGS 012 BETWEEN 29/16-29/19Z.

KBUR...LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PERSIST WHILE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHIFT EAST SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS THE LOW CENTER PROGRESSES EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND THERE
IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WIND AND SEAS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL DEVELOP. SEAS ORIGINATING FROM THE FETCH AREA
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 240-270 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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