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726
FXUS66 KLOX 241145
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

...AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS IN THE GREAT BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
LARGE EAST PAC HIGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA TODAY. GRADIENTS ARE
OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE N AND THE E AND BOTH ARE TRENDING OFFSHORE.
DESPITE THIS TODAYS WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAYS SINCE THERE
IS NO LONGER ANY UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT. EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF
WINDS AROUND 900 AM AT THE TIME OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE WINDIEST
AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WINDIEST AREAS WILL
BE THE SANTA MONICA MTNS AND THE WINDY CORRIDOR THAT STRADDLES THE
VTA/LA COUNTY LINE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY AND THIS SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS PLUS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN NV TO SRN NV TONIGHT AND WILL SET UP
A STRONGER E TO W SFC GRADIENT. A LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AS WELL. THE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE JUST BEFORE DAWN.
THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COOLING IN
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THE INTERIOR SLO VLY AND THE CUYAMA VLY
WILL SEE MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG NOW. STILL THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW END ADVISORY GUSTS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
LITTLE MORE EASTERLY AND THIS WILL ALLOW AVALON HARBOR TO FEEL MORE
OF THE WINDS AS WELL. THE HIGH KEEPS PUSHING IN AND MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE. COASTS AND VLYS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
THE MID 80S. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE LESS BREEZY BUT WARMER. THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
ATOP OF THE STATE AND HGTS WILL PEAK AT AN IMPRESSIVE 589 DM (THATS
WHAT WE USUALLY SEE IN AUGUST) CST AND VLY TEMPS WILL PEAK AND WILL
ALMOST ALL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 90S IN
THE WARMEST LOCATIONS. THESE MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CANYON WINDS BUT MUCH WEAKER
THAN TUESDAYS.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS ON THURSDAY AS A PAC NW TROF PUSHES INTO OR AND
NRN CA. THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND REDUCES THE OFFSHORE
PUSH. WINDS WILL REALLY BE NO CONCERN AND MAX TEMPS WILL COOL BUT
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)...
ALL MDLS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED WITH SW FLOW ON
FRIDAY AND THAT HGTS WILL FALL TO ABOUT 580 DM. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING A GOOD DOSE OF COOLING TO THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL 4 TO 8
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AND THE CSTS AND VLYS WILL SEE TEMPS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
TROF SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK A STRATUS DECK FOR
MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

ALL EYES NOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS BOTH EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A DECENT STORM FOR THE SOUTHLAND. IF THE
MDLS ARE TO BE BELIEVED (AND REMEMBER NEVER EVER FULLY BUY INTO A
DAY 7 FORECAST) A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST AND WILL REACH L.A. COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO HAVE ENOUGH IMPULSES BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING THROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO WATCH THIS FORECAST EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z

AT 1000Z AT KLAX...THE TOP OF THE SURFACE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT
1900 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES C.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH THE SURFACE
PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KLAX...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH THE SURFACE
PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z.

KBUR...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERIODICALLY REACH THE SURFACE
PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH SOME LOCALIZED NORTHWEST TO NORTH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO 25 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA BY
MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS
LOOK TO BE STRONGER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS FROM VENTURA SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA AND
SOUTH OF PALOS VERDES.  THIS WILL IMPACT THE EAST SIDE OF CATALINA
ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...23/130 PM.

THE NORTH FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM EARLIER WILL WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY AS WELL INTO
MONDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT
BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY OVER MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS HOWEVER
WILL ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY.

COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW INTO A
MODERATE SANTA ANA. WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 40
AND 55 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. HUMIDITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AND DURATIONS OVER LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE COASTAL SECTIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE WEAKER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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