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840
FXUS66 KLOX 271900
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THEN A LOW WILL BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
FROM LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL INTO MONDAY...WITH  BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
*** MID MORNING DISCUSSION UPDATE ***
SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN GENERALLY FIVE TO FIFTEEN DEGREES
FROM THE READINGS YESTERDAY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL TODAY.

THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SOME WARMING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ANY NOTABLE WEATHER EFFECTS FROM IT.  NOT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT
AT FIRST LOOK.

*** EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION ***
RAINFALL AMOUNT FROM LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS FELL RIGHT INTO LINE WITH
THE FCST WITH TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE EASTERN SAN GABRIEL COASTAL SLOPES
WHERE ABOUT A HALF INCH FELL.

A 565 DM UPPER LOW SITS ATOP OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN VORT LOBE ASSOC WITH THIS LOW IS MOVING THROUGH
SBA AND SLO COUNTY AND THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAKER SECONDARY VORT LOBE MAY BRING A
FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS
AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND
EVEN THEN MOSTLY JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SFC FLOW IS
QUICKLY WEAKENING AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL.

A QUICK LITTLE POP UP RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND HGTS
MOVE UP TO ABOUT 576 DM. OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP AT THE SFC AS A 1029
MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO NRN NEVADA. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BUMP UP UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HGTS.

A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE EC STANDS ALONE
AND FORECASTS RAIN OVER THE ERN PORTION OF L.A. COUNTY THROUGH THE
WHOLE PERIOD. KEPT THE 20 PERCENT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE MTNS AND AV
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT REALLY DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANYTHING.
MAX TEMPS WILL COOL BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE AT OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)...
ANOTHER RIDGE-TASTIC WEEKEND ON TAP AS ALL LONG RANGE MDLS FORECAST
A 577 DM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. OFFSHORE FLOW EACH
MORNING WILL BRING SOME SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH THE CANYONS. AT THIS
TIME THE WINDS DO NOT LOOK THAT STRONG. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS
COOL SPOTS LIKE PISMO BEACH AND CAMBRIA WILL EVEN REACH 70 DEGREES.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR BUT MAX TEMPS WILL DROP ESP AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION UP TO 1000 FEET AND
17 DEGREES C.

CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. KPRB WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITY IN SOME
LOCATIONS ALSO DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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