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486
FXUS63 KLOT 171353
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
853 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
231 AM CDT

OVERARCHING THEME OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS FAIRLY
NICE EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH A DASH OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND
SPLASH OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER GLORIOUS DAY...LIKELY A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY. GUIDANCE WAS A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WITH 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE 2-3C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS NEAR OR INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS. SOME
ACCAS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS THAN THE
NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES TUESDAY BUT STILL LOOK FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY.

WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE LAKE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER UMPH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND RESULT IN A GREATER LAKE INFLUENCE TO TEMPS.
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND SHOULD BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION GETTING UNDERWAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS
GOING INTO FULL GEAR BY LATE FRIDAY AND GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF
THE TOASTIER TEMPS ITS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH WARMING WILL BE REALIZED
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY. HAVE CONSERVATIVELY BUMPED TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
AREA WIDE...BUT PROGGED 00Z 850MB/925MB TEMPS WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT
TEMPS AROUND 80F. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WARM WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING...IN FACT MANY AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS
FRI NIGHT WARMER THAN HIGH TEMPS WERE LAST WEEK! GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS WITH 925MB TEMPS
AROUND 20C...WHICH CLIMO SUGGESTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD SOME INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE EVEN THOSE FORECAST HIGHS COULD END UP BEING A BIT TOO LOW!

COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY LOOKING LIKE A DECENT BET ALONG THE
FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD LESS PHASING WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...SO NOT
LOOKING LIKE QUITE AS BIG OF A RAIN PRODUCER AS PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED. THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
COME IN PHASES...WITH THE FIRST PHASE INITIALLY LOOKING LIKE MORE OF
A PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR SUNDAY BEFORE SECONDARY PUSH OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

* COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOWER
  STRATUS BEHIND.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG. CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION IS LOWER MAINLY DUE TO THE OVERALL LIGHT
MAGNITUDE...BUT EXPECT A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS MORNING
TO GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN A LAKE
BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS EASTERLY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGHOUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE REGION TURNING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME
MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR STRATUS COMING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE TIMING TO WITHIN AN HOUR
  OR TWO.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THURSDAY MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
222 AM CDT

AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE LIE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COLD FRONT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES JUST NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS DIMINISH
THURSDAY..THEN TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH
GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...TURNING NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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