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FXUS63 KLMK 230458

1258 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the upper 80s to lower
90s with heat indices in the lower to mid 90s. A few light to
moderate shower have popped up along a deformation band stretching
across central Kentucky. A few strikes of lightning may be possible
with the strongest cells with brief heavy downpours. These showers
will dissipate this evening with the overnight period being dry.
Lows tonight will drop only into the lower 70s, with mid 70s in the
Louisville metro.

Models continue to indicate the cold front will approach the
northern portions of the forecast area by late morning to early
afternoon. Showers and storms will develop ahead of this front
tomorrow morning and spread across the region through the day. These
storms look to be scattered in nature. Chances for severe weather
continue to look small as wind profiles will be rather light.
However, with ample instability and plenty of moisture, a few strong
to marginally severe storms with gusty winds cannot be completely
ruled out. Heavy rain will be the other potential threat with these
storms as PWAT values climb into the 1.8-1.9 inch range. Ponding of
water may develop with any slow moving or training storms. High
temperatures will be tricky tomorrow and depend somewhat on how fast
the precipitation moves in and how much coverage there is. In
general, have gone with highs in the mid 80s across portions of
southern Indiana and upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.

Precipitation will be ending tomorrow night with rain chances
shifting eastward as the front moves through. Cooler air will begin
to move in behind the front tomorrow night. Lows will be cooler than
tonight, ranging from the lower to upper 60s from northwest to

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Showers/T-storms associated with the aforementioned cold front and
upper level trough should exit the area early Thurs morning.
Cooler, pleasant weather will follow Thurs/Fri as Canadian high
pressure moves south into the area along with an upper level
trough.  High temps will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s Thurs/Fri
under mostly sunny skies.  Night time lows will be in the 60s.

Flow will become more zonal across the CONUS for Sat before another
upper low dives south into the Midwest for Sun/Mon.  This will
result in temps returning closer to normal for the upper
80s to around 90 for highs.  Then temps will drop below normal
(lower 80s) again for the beginning of next week as another upper
level trough becomes established over the Midwest.

This pattern will continue to bring multiple chances for
showers/t-storms to the region Sat-Tues.  The first may arrive in
the form of an MCS Sat in northwest flow.  Continued on and off
chances for storms will continue ahead of a cold front progged to
move through some time Monday.  These finer details are hard to time
this far out so look for refined forecast POP timing in later
issuances.  Tuesday looks dry and cool behind the front.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Overall, the first several hours of the TAF period should be quiet.
There are a couple of possible problems that could crop up, though.
One is a chance of some high-end MVFR BR/HZ towards sunrise.  The
other is a small chance of showers a couple hours either side of
dawn, especially at LEX and SDF, as a small wave (near STL at 04Z)
comes in.  The chances of vsby restrictions and the likelihood of
significant showers are small enough to leave out of the TAFs for

An upper wave over Iowa early this morning will push to the
southeast and reach the Ohio Valley this afternoon.  Also, a surface
cold front will cross the region during the early and mid afternoon
hours.  These features will bring the possibility of scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Nevertheless,
VFR conditions will prevail.

Winds from the WSW ahead of the front will switch to the northwest
behind the front and eventually due north by tonight.  Speeds will
mostly be AOB 10 knots.




Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS

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