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055 FXUS63 KLMK 232342 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 642 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)... Issued at 225 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2014 ...Strong winds expected early Monday through late Monday afternoon... The synoptic pattern this afternoon features two significant PV anomalies of note, one across the Southeast with another further west across MO/AR. These anomalies will phase through the short term period, leading to a rapidly deepening surface low across the Midwest and Great Lakes region tonight into early Monday. The forecast is playing out largely as expected with this system thus far. Isentropic ascent on the nose of a 50-60 knot low-level jet has led to widespread shower development this afternoon. This activity will continue to develop and expand northeastward from the southwest late this afternoon into this evening, leading to a widespread swath of precipitation. Not overly sold on the thunder potential given mostly moist adiabatic lapse rates, but forecast soundings do show just enough elevated instability for an embedded rumble or two of thunder. QPF amounts tonight look to range from a half inch across the eastern CWA to around an inch across southern Indiana. The upper-level and associated surface pattern becomes a bit more complex tonight. One surface low seen swirling across portions of AL/LA this afternoon will push north into KY this evening. The pressure gradient will increase as this low approaches this evening into the overnight hours. However, it appears that low-level lapse rates will remain quite poor and a near-surface stable layer should limit our gusts below Wind Advisory criteria (gusts upwards of 40 mph) for this evening into the early overnight hours as this low swings through. However, sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph do appear possible. The main wind threat will come early Monday morning into Monday afternoon. The aforementioned PV anomalies will phase and a coupled jet structure will allow for a rapid deepening of the surface low across IL/IN/MI. The pressure gradient will really increase across the Ohio Valley early Monday morning as a strong cold front sharpens out to the west. This front will push into the western CWA around 12Z Monday, clearing the eastern CWA by around 18Z. Low-level lapse rates will improve ahead and behind this front, meaning strong winds (around 50 knots just 3000 feet AGL) should mix down. Will also have to watch for some convective showers/isolated thunderstorm right along the front as guidance continues to hint at some SBCAPE, which would aid in getting showers to a depth around 15k feet. This convective potential coupled with the strong low-level wind fields could make for a few isolated wind gusts perhaps approaching 50 mph Monday morning. However, think the synoptic wind gusts will be around 40-45 mph Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. Given these forecast wind speeds, will be hoisting a Wind Advisory for tomorrow. The pressure gradient will relax by Monday evening, which will allow the winds to die down a bit. Behind the front, much cooler air will spill into the region with overnight lows on Monday dropping into the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 The first part of this forecast period has higher confidence, whereas the mid and latter part actually are coming up a little now that the 12Z Euro has moved closer to the other model solutions. Tuesday, we`ll see high pressure moving across the Ohio Valley, with temperatures back below normal (a condition likely to persist through this forecast period). Tuesday night will be chilly as well, with light winds and mostly clear skies. A hindrance to that may be thickening high clouds over the southeast forecast area, as a low pressure system deepens off the GA coast. The 12Z European has changed its tune from the last several model runs about the low pressure system dropping into the Midwest Wednesday. The previous several runs called for a much deeper low, well outside of the spread of MSLP in the ensembles from the GFS/GEM/NOGAPS. This run now is in line with the GFS, and is finally helping to increase the confidence in what the models are seeing. Thus the forecast will contain a little higher confidence in precip during the day Wednesday, which would be in the form of rain, as we see highs in the low to mid 40s. Wednesday night and even Thanksgiving morning, we will continue to see some chance for light snow across the area, as the flow aloft brings a fetch of moisture from the Great Lakes and works with some lift across our eastern forecast thanks to topography. We dry out for Friday and then get some warm air advection back in here Friday night, which may lead to some light precip, ahead of another cold front forecast to move across the region some time during the next weekend. Model forecasts are a little spread here, so will not get too specific on timing at this point. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 642 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2014 Wind will make for uncomfortable flying conditions, and ceilings (and to a lesser extent visibilities) will add to planning challenges during this TAF period. Low pressure over Missouri this evening will strengthen as it charges northeast into Michigan tonight and southeast Canada tomorrow, dragging a cold front through central Kentucky Monday morning. South to southeast winds will be strong and gusty this evening out ahead of the low. Though winds of 45 to 50 knots will be possible this evening between 1500 and 2000 feet off the surface, surface winds are expected to be strong enough and directional shear minor enough such that we should fall just shy of LLWS criteria. The main shield of rain will sweep northeastward out of central Kentucky about the time the TAF period starts. Scattered showers are then expected for the rest of the night with MVFR ceilings prevailing. Winds will be quite strong Monday, especially in the morning as the cold front moves through and takes winds to the southwest and then WSW. MVFR ceilings will continue through the day. The best chance for showers will be in the morning coincident with FROPA. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...WIND ADVISORY from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. IN...WIND ADVISORY from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ Short Term........KJD Long Term.........RJS Aviation..........13