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420
FXUS65 KLKN 242218
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
318 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY...AND ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA
ON SUNDAY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CLEAR
SKY. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY, LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...SUNNY AND DRY. A BIT WARMER WITH AFTERNOON VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. MODELS PROG STRONG MONSOON MOISTURE
SURGE TO BEGIN ENTERING THE FAR SE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THROUGH 5 PM FRIDAY, EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN SE OF ELY IN SE
WHITE PINE COUNTY, AND SE OF DUCKWATER IN NE NYE COUNTY. 12Z GFS
CRANKS UP PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR ONE INCH AT GREAT BASIN
NATIONAL PARK BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG INSTABILITY JUST
NOSING INTO THE PARK FROM LINCOLN COUNTY. PLACED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS FOR THESE FAR SE ZONES, AND KEPT A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR
THE SE CWA WITH FIRES ONGOING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE THE SE ZONES,
WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR ELY REVEALING PW APPROACHING ONE INCH
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. INCREASED SKY
COVER GREATLY FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS, WITH
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED. NORTHERN NEVADA
CONTINUED CLEAR COOL AND DRY.

SATURDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NEVADA, WITH PW OF 0.50 INCH REACHING THE RUBY MOUNTAINS
BY 5 PM, AND WELL OVER 1 INCH PW ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE SOUPY BY NEVADA
STANDARDS, WITH PW AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCH. GFS ALSO PLACES STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY WITH LIFTED INDEX DOWN TO -4C
AT 5 PM. INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS FOR WHITE PINE
COUNTY, AND EXPANDED DRY LIGHTNING MENTION NORTHWARD TO THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WARM SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, NOSING INTO THE MID 90S. SE ZONES WILL COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE, CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED RAIN. TURNER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WEATHER WILL
BE ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING
MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE WEEK
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST AND THIS MAY CUT MOISTURE OFF A BIT AS WINDS
OVER THE CWA BECOME LIGHT AND THEN PERHAPS SHIFT WEST TO
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE END TO CONVECTION
EVEN THURSDAY...AS PW`S SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE
MINIMUMS AND DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOWLY WARMING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS US. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS CONTROL. SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL...GUSTS PERHAPS TO 25 KNOTS. RCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CLEAR SKY, LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY, AS WELL AS SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 MPH AT LEAST LOCALLY
ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457, SO WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN ONGOING WILDFIRES.

FRIDAY...DRY FOR MOST OF THE FIRE DISTRICT, ALTHOUGH THE NEXT
MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE FWZ
455 AND EASTERN FWZ 457. CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH
AN LAL OF 3. SW WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN TO FWZ 455 AND 457 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AVERAGING 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
FELT MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA, SO DID
NOT ISSUE ANOTHER HEADLINE. THAT SAID, THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH MIN RH OF 6-9% TO ENCOURAGE WILDFIRE GROWTH. FIRE MANAGERS
AND CREWS IN THE FIELD IN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES SHOULD USE
CAUTION FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE LESS,
AVERAGING 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY...WEAKER WINDS FOR ALL FWZ, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NEVADA. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD, WITH CONVECTION
COVERAGE INCREASING. SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS/NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY WITH LAL OF 4. ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING
MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE, AS FAR NORTH AS THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/93/93/99





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