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553
FXUS65 KLKN 250906
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
206 AM PDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
SILVER STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS SHOWERS SPREAD TO ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE AND
VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN
THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART AND DEWPOINTS ARE RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO THE MID 40S. RAIN BEGAN FALLING ON THE MID-SLOPES AROUND 11
PM PDT AND AT ELKO JUST BEFORE 1 AM. RADAR INDICATES ELKO COUNTY
IS THE BENEFICIARY OF THE LARGEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE SIERRAS AS THE MOIST FLOW BEGINS. IR IMAGERY CONFIRMS
THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE
COASTLINE THIS MORNING HAS A BEAD ON THE SILVER STATE. THE MODELS
ALL CONTINUE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
IMPACT ON THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODELS ARE COINCIDING A LITTLE BETTER WITH
DEPICTING PRECIPITATION ONSET. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING OUT AROUND
8500 FEET AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS WILL
START ON SCHEDULE...BEGINNING AT 5 AM PDT. MODELED JET ENERGY
REMAINS EXTREMELY IMBALANCED FAVORING THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
A COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE OVER NEVADA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
OPEN TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CREATE
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BE SCOOPED UP AND SLUNG OVER THE STATE
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW RE-CENTERS NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AT THE END
OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE IDAHO
AND OREGON BORDERS AND ANYWHERE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE H7 CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST...COUPLED WITH DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TO THE MID 60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL
NEVADA.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA...AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
ELKO COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND
SUBSEQUENTLY NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY HOLD ABOVE LOWEST VALLEY
FLOORS THROUGH THIS EVENING HOWEVER MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO PILE
UP SOME SNOW AND ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION COULD PERIODICALLY
DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS EARLY AS THE LOWER LEVELS
COOL. SNOWFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20 TO THE MID 30S.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HOWEVER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH...THERE WILL BE A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AT LEAST ONE DETECTED SHORTWAVE
WILL PLUNGE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA AND BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE COLDER AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WRAPPING UP MAINLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY
EVENING AS LAST SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

CHILLY NW FLOW ON MONDAY, ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DRY, BUT COOL NW BREEZES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BRISK, MAINLY IN THE 50S. MANY EASTERN NEVADA VALLEYS
WILL ONLY SUCCEED IN REACHING A HIGH NEAR 50 DEGREES ON MONDAY,
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY, WITH NEVADA RECEIVING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW,
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST. AGAIN, SLOWED DOWN THE ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. VERY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN VERY FEW CLOUDS NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY
COLD MORNING LOWS NEAR FREEZING. BT

&&

.AVIATION...LOWERING CIGS TODAY, ALONG WITH -SHRA BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL, BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. PRECIP AT ALL TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN RAIN, AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 18Z, SW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS
AT ALL SITES. MENTIONED VCTS AT KELY/KTPH 18-00Z WHERE INSTABILITY
IS MOST NOTABLE.

STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO -SN 00-18Z SAT. IFR CIGS/VIS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT KEKO/KELY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KWMC/KTPH BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. CONFIDENT THAT BOTH
KEKO/KELY WILL REACH CAT A LANDING MINIMUMS AROUND THE 12Z SAT
TIME-FRAME. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
SATURDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/99/99






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