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247
FXUS65 KLKN 282202
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON IS ACTIVE AND BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TOMORROW AND IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...AT THE ONSET...THE DEW PT FOR ELY WAS OVER 50F AND
NEAR 50F AT TPH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS JUICED...WITH PWS FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT .95 OF AN INCH FROM KEKO WHICH IS 163 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...AND 1.43 OF AN INCH AT LAS VEGAS WHICH IS 188 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE WELL OVER 1" PWS OVER THE LKN CWA
IN BOTH HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG A
SIMILAR VEIN...THE CAPE IS AVERAGING OVER 500 J/KG ON THE NAM FOR
THIS EVENT COINCIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE LI`S. THE PROGGED
SOUNDINGS FOR ELY HAVE A SATURATED PROFILE FROM 600 MB TO 450 MB.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL
CONTINUE TO PERTURB THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGH CONFIDENCE QPF EVENT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE
MODELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO HANDLING THE MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS TAKES SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS HURRICANE AND MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THIS MOISTURE ON
ON MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO CENTRAL
NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE UP FROM THE SOUTH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT KELY AND KTPH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KWMC AND KEKO.
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT ALL  TAF SITES AND
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN CAN
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS MONSOON
OUTBREAK...ALONG WITH ENHANCED LALS. THE WINDEX HAS GUSTS OF 45
MPH...GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/92/92/97






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