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584
FXUS65 KLKN 182150
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
250 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR ALL
ZONES. MONDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARM...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS NEVADA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR HAS INVADED NW NEVADA, WHILE THE PACIFIC PLUME
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. APRIL
SUNSHINE HAS INTERACTED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY, WITH CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG ALONG A NORTHERN NYE-SE
EUREKA-NW WHITE PINE COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS LINE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SATURDAY...DRY ACROSS NW NEVADA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE SE ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, PAINTED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT ALONG A GABBS-
SPRING CREEK-OWYHEE LINE. EXPECT ELKO TO REMAIN DRY SATURDAY, AS
WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF SPRING CREEK. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ON THE RUBY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AS HINTED AT BY NAM/ECMWF, BUT GFS SUGGESTS DRY AIR WILL REIGN
SUPREME ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEVADA. GFS PLACES PW OF 1/2 INCH
SE OF A WENDOVER-EUREKA-GABBS LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THAT IS
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY PROGGED OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY SATURDAY IS NOTABLE,
WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR ELY SHOWING LIFTED INDEX NEAR -2 AND
CAPE NEAR 400 J/KG. SHOULD BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE IN WHITE PINE
COUNTY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN NEVADA...A PLEASANT SPRING DAY FOR THE
EASTER EGG HUNTS. PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SW WINDS AVERAGING 15-25 MPH.

EASTER SUNDAY...A SPECTACULAR HOLIDAY EXPECTED FOR NEVADA. DRY AIR
TAKES OVER ALL OF NEVADA AND REMOVED ALL POPS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER THAN THAT FOR
EASTER IN NORTHERN NEVADA.

MONDAY...LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BY
AFTERNOON, WITH SW FLOW RETURNING TO NEVADA. SW WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON, AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH. CURRENTLY BELIEVE A WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED
ON MONDAY, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH PW RETURNING TO NEAR 1/2 INCH, RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ANOTHER INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG A RUBIES-EUREKA-TONOPAH LINE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE VERY LIMITED, BUT OPTED TO MENTION A FEW
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE. OTHERWISE, WINDY AND
QUITE WARM. 12Z ECMWF IN PARTICULAR SHOWS A STRONG SURGE OF WARM
AIR FROM THE SW, WITH 700 MB TEMPS JUMPING TO +4C NORTH TO A
TOASTY +8C SOUTH. WARMED UP MONDAY`S HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
MONDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO
FAR.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....BRINGING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ADDED BLOWING DUST AS
WELL...MAINLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST
VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODELS
DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GFS/GEM HOLDING ONTO SOME TROUGHINESS OVER
NORTHEAST NV WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE WETTER GFS/GEM AND DID
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS ECMWF IS THE ODD ONE OUT FOR NOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE OUT OF SYNC THURSDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NRN CA
SPREADING SOME MOISTURE OVER NRN NV. INHERITED FORECAST MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WETTER ECMWF AND WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES SAW NO REASON TO
CHANGE...KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE KEKO/KELY/KTPH SITES DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT. THREAT OF
SHOWERS...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/86/86






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