weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  
[Printable]
094
FXUS65 KLKN 310353 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
853 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN DRY
AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE...ALONG WITH SMOKE FROM
CALIFORNIA FIRES. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT BLOCKS
THE SUN MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP OCCURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...MURPHY POPPED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY AND SO EXPANDED THE COVERAGE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY 12Z BUT
NOT THE POPS. THESE ARE MOVING QUICKLY AND THE AIR MASS IS DRY.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND STORM FREE. LEFT SMOKE COVER ALONE
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 247 PM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAZE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE
REGION FROM WILDFIRES BURNING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80 FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. BREEZY OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AS A 70-80KT JET DROPS
IN OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS ARE SPREADING SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. WINDS AND
SMOKE DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND .6 HOWEVER...SO EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE ONLY
VIRGA. DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL H5 PATTERN. THERE WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THE LKN CWFA WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVER
TIME...GETTING NEAR THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CREATE
SOME INSTABILITY OVER NEVADA. THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MOVEMENT
OCCURS IS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE MODELS. SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL.

AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO PROMOTE HAZINESS. THUS CANNOT
RULE OUT DIMINISHED VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY AT KWMC AND KEKO
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED IN OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND DEW
POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO POSSIBLY SET
OFF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS. NOT QUITE AS BREEZY ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH NO WIND/RH ISSUES OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRY AND STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TOO...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE
RETURN OF WIND/RH ISSUES THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/99






U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE