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241
FXUS64 KLIX 020120
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
820 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ABOUT 4 MILES
EAST OF THE CAUSEWAY ABOUT 21.4 MILES IN ALTITUDE. AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THIS EVENING WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.08 INCHES. CAPE OF 959 AND LIFTED OF -3 ON THIS FLIGHT. CELL
MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE SLOW WITH STORM MOTION OF 6 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
REACHED BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS WERE LIGHT EASTERLY
FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 5000 FEET...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ABOVE THAT
THROUGH ABOUT 100 MB BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY. A 46 KNOT MAX WIND
AT ABOUT 42K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
ATTM...THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE QUITE DRY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WEST OF THE FRONT THEY ARE IN THE MID 70S.
THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER SEEMS TO BE MORE ORIENTED BASED ON THE
OMEGA MAX AND SURFACE LOW POSITION. MEDIUM RANGE AND MESO MODELS
AGREE THAT A GENERAL DOWN TREND OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...MORESO NW OF A HUM TO ASD LINE. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT WITH MORE SHOWERS SPREADING FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOWERED HEIGHTS...CONTINUED COLUMN SATURATION AND
CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT ON SUNDAY SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS
LIKELY CATEGORY OF POPS.

THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND ONWARD. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CUTOFF MOISTURE
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT DAILY COVERAGE OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AS WELL.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
FIRST 6 HOURS OF FORECAST WAS BASED MAINLY ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INDICATED THE GREATEST CHANCE AND HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA WOULD CONTINUE FROM KBTR TO KMCB AND POSSIBLY EAST
TO NEAR KHDC WHERE MENTION OF SOME LIMITED VSBYS AND SHRA/TSRA ARE
IN THE TAFS. THE REMAINING AIRPORTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ARE LESS
LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING...LOWER THAN VFR CONDITIONS FROM SHRA...AND
LESS LIKELY TO SEE TSRA...SO HAVE MAINLY ONLY ADDED VCSH. CONFIDENCE
OF LOCATION OF SHRA AND LOWER CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WAS INSUFFICIENT TO GO BELOW VFR IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. 22/TD
 &&

MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 1 FOOT OR LESS.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  70  86 /  40  40  40  60
BTR  72  87  71  87 /  40  50  40  60
ASD  71  89  71  88 /  30  50  40  60
MSY  75  89  75  88 /  30  40  40  60
GPT  74  90  75  90 /  30  40  40  60
PQL  70  89  71  88 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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