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290
FXUS64 KLIX 210729
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
229 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WILL BE PRETTY SHORT AND SWEET SINCE THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT
TO DISCUSS. ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE
FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST
THINKING HASN/T CHANGED.

A PERSISTENT LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL REINFORCE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PLEASANT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THE LOWS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME VERY GRADUAL MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE
ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEYOND ABOUT
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
ALSO FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF SOUTH INTERACTS WITH A REGION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  82  56  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  52  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  79  62  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  55  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  80  50  77  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






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