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751
FXUS64 KLIX 290116
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
716 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATED...

MADE A FEW CHANGES DUE TO ONGOING TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO OR BELOW FORECASTED LOWS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF TIDAL LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HALT AS LL WARM AID
ADVECTION AND ADDED LL MOISTURE WILL SLOW/STOP FALLING TEMPS BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. 18

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW EVENINGS...THE SOUNDING IS DRY
WITH ABOUT HALF THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST WE WOULD HAVE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE ATTAINING A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN AND WHILE NOT REFLECTED ON THIS EVENING/S
SOUNDING...EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING/S SOUNDING TO SHOW A BIT OF A
BUMP IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE. OVERALL...WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6000 FEET...THEN FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST ABOVE 6000 FEET. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 64
KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 48200 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT TONIGHT. THE BALLOON
ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 20 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING
NEAR SHIP ISLAND SOUTH OF BILOXI 56 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.
THE FLIGHT LASTED 100 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. PRETTY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL WILD CARD
IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND STALL FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT ACTUALLY STALLS...
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING MID LATITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL SKIRT AROUND THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE RATHER THAN DISPLACING IT. WITH THAT SAID...AM
CARRYING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THESE DISTURBANCES PASS BY.

AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. ONLY CONCERN COULD BE TEMPO MVFR
VSBYS AT MCB FOR 5SM BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW EVNG.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
MONDAY SHOULD STALL INLAND OF THE COAST BUT RELAX THE WIND FIELD
WHILE BULKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
CONSIDERATIONS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES/BAYS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  42  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  62  44  72  54 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  60  42  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  61  48  70  59 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  57  43  68  55 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  38  68  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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