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296
FXUS64 KLCH 301514
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$








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