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236
FXUS64 KLCH 221823
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
123 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW JUST A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST SW OF
K7R4. WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...PARED DOWN
AFTERNOON POPS TO JUST VCTS ALL SITES BUT KBPT WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE EXPECTED (SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). WHATEVER CONVECTION
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD COME TO AN SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME STRATOCU
IS POSSIBLE AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE PER TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
ACADIANA EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS THE SEABREEZE
BECOMES ACTIVE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ELSEWHERE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS EXCEPT AROUND THE LAKES AREA OF SE TX WHERE
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES LESS LOWER THAN
SEASONAL NORMS AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPS LOOKING ON TARGET.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
A FEW CU AND CI NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR
WX WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. LOOKING FOR SCTD STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTN HRS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SOMEWHAT LESS FOR SE TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE
U.S. AND N GULF KEEPING A S FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR NOT
SHOWING ANY SHRA YET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOWING NOCTURNAL
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS S LA TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...COUPLED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S...ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS C AND SC LA ALONG AND N OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT STILL EXPECTING TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE A BIT MORE...EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES ACROSS C LA BY SUN. WHILE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...HAVE OPTED TO PLACE AT LEAST ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER C AND SC
LA...AS THESE TEMPS AND PAST HISTORY THIS WEEK HAS PROVEN THAT
CONVECTION IS INDEED POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE
AGAIN BEGINNING MON. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE TUE AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE/LIFT MOVES OVER THE REGION.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INHIBITS MOST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY MON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  77  94  76  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
KBPT  94  77  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  97  74  98  75  99 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  94  76  96  76  97 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








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