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316
FXUS64 KLCH 231006
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE MILD AND
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ELONGATED UPPER TROF QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AND OB REPORTS OF DZ/-RA SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO
DECREASING MEAN LAYER RH...IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT EVEN THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY TREKS
EAST. BY SUN...WITH THE RIDGE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF...SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...PROVIDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MSTR WILL RESULT...ALONG WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS...INDICATING A WEAKER FRONT MORE LIKELY TO LIMP INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND
WED...BUT LEFT DRY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  55  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  74  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






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