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[Printable]
474
FXUS64 KLCH 201134
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR STRATUS AT 4-7
HUNDRED FEET WILL START THE TAF PACKAGES AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO BREAK AND SKIES CLEAR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH VFR RETURNING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  43  62  49  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  58  45  64  50  70 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








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