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[Printable]
057
FXUS63 KLBF 182324
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTRUMENT OR
LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE
MARGINAL CEILINGS NOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
LOWER THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION BECOMES
180-200 VERSUS THE 130-160 DIRECTION OVER THE AREA NOW. AROUND THAT
TIME...THE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE EDGES OF THE STRATUS...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS FAIRLY HIGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WE ARE
THINKING THAT...BY ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z...VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER FLIRTING BRIEFLY WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







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