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463
FXUS62 KKEY 281243
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
DETAILS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM THE CENTER OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT
MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER
IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22 NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAILS AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SNAKING RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAR SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND RED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...FROM LOWE PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOCALLY...A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CONTINUED TO ILLUSTRATED INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY INFILTRATING MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED BOTH A MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
5000 FEET AGL...BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 25 KFT. THE COLUMN HAD
MOISTENED UP .52 OR MORE THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN ONLY 12 HOURS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAD ALREADY
RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. KEY WEST
RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY ECHOES ATTM. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE
FLORIDA REEF AND IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...DESPITE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TODAY...INTRODUCTION OF
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS
INDICATED BY BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL
AS CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT DATA JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE KEYS. THE WEAKER AND LIGHT LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FAVOR
CUMULUS CLOUD FORMATION...GIVEN PWAT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES.
BUT THERE ARE ONLY A FEW BOUNDARIES AWAY FROM THE KEYS AND GIVEN
VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION STILL THINK THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
KEYS AND THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA BAY...NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND IN HAWK CHANNEL...CUMULUS CLOUD
LINES MAY BECOME WELL DEVELOPED DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A LATE MORNING MAY BE PERFORMED PENDING ADDITIONAL
SATELLITE OBSERVATION.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EASTERLY EARLY WILL BECOME VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5
KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WEAR YOUR
SUNSCREEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING

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