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846
FXUS62 KKEY 220235
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS
PRESSED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN COMBINATION WITH THE TROUGH HAS DAILY
BIFURCATED THE RIDGE...LEAVING THE KEYS IN A GENERALLY EAST FLOW WITH
QUITE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS...AND AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF INHIBITION...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO DRIVE CONVECTION. UNFAVORABLE
STEERING FLOW THIS EVENING KEPT ISLAND CLOUD BUILD UP FROM REMAINING
NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED LARGELY AWAY FROM THE KEYS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ISLAND LOCATIONS GENERALLY
REMAINING 10 MPH OR LESS. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM JUSTIFIES KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. A STEADY
FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
.OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND
TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AT EITHER THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL OR
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THE MOMENT SO AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUES AS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM 110 DEGREES AOA 6 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN

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