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468
FXUS62 KKEY 240823
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
423 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA
IS MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA. LAST
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE...WITH A PWAT WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING ACROSS THE KEYS
AND SURROUNDING NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS...AND PULASKI SHOAL AND
SMITH SHOAL ARE JUST A BIT ABOVE 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST - ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL APPROACH FLORIDA TODAY AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN STRENGTHENING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW...AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY WINDY OUT OF THE NORTH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER LOWER AND MID LEVEL...SITTING JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ACT TO GREATLY DIMINISH THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL NUDGE ABOVE 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 60S AND ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
IT IS PICKED UP BY THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
DEPARTURE...ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
RAPIDLY LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH BREEZES BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYERED DRY
AIR...SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S...AND A
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH CELL WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND BEGIN STRETCHING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL FRESHEN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS ACCELERATING MARITIME TRAJECTORY WILL QUICKLY BUMP DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND DEEPEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY FRESH OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY. PULASKI AND SMITH SHOALS ARE ALREADY REPORTING NORTHEAST
WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
ACCELERATES AWAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES
WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH CELL
SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN FRESHEN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...AND PRESSURES
FALL IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
KEYS WATERS BY MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WILL TREND TOWARDS DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEGINNING TO CLEAR
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO
22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO CROSSWINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  75  82  73 / 70 30 -  -
MARATHON  82  75  82  72 / 70 30 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS

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