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576
FXUS62 KKEY 231509
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND NORTHWARD
INTO THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. SURFACE WISE...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST WINDS BELOW 700 MB WILL
PROVIDE FORMIDABLE MOISTURE FLUX AND LOW LEVEL SPEED CONFLUENCE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPDATED
THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60
PERCENT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STRAITS WILL RESULT IN
FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST WINDS ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN STRAITS AND OUTER WATERS OF
MAINLAND MONROE...AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET NEAR BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY...AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE IN ON THE
KEYS WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS AT
1K FEET...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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