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466
FXUS62 KKEY 201500
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS...BUT GRADUALLY CLEARING. KBYX RADAR SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE MOSTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A
CONTINUED REDUCTION IN PWAT VALUES TO 0.66 INCHES...WHICH IS AROUND
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR... A STEEP INVERSION
WAS SEEN NEAR THE LCL AT AROUND AT 850 MB...WITH EXCESSIVELY DRY AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE MID 70S. AND DEW
POINTS ARE HOVERING AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS. WHILE A FEW AREAS MAY HOLD ON TO SLIGHTLY MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR EASTER AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE LATER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARDS TO 10 KNOTS...OR POSSIBLY LESS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES TODAY...A MESOSCALE-INDUCED COASTAL SURGE IS
A STRONG POSSIBILITY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND. EXPECT THAT CAUTIONARY WORDING CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW HOURLY OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA BY AND EASTERN
HAWK CHANNEL ZONES...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHORT LIVED AND
NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REPRESENT THE MAX OF MOST
OBSERVATIONS. A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BE MOST VISIBLE IN THE
WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF OUR DEEP WATERS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN CIGS BASED AT 035 WILL PERSIST AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TEND TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DISTURBS THE THERMAL
ADVECTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 030
WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
CROSSWIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
MTH...THEREAFTER...BOTH TERMINALS WILL HAVE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 20TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS HISTORY...IN
1877...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89F WAS RECORDED...A
RECORD WHICH HAS HELD FOR 137 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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