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722
FXUS62 KKEY 010704
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
304 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOST OF THE RETURNS FROM THE KBYX RADAR ARE THE BIRD MIGRATION ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RADAR
RANGE WE FIND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTERSPERSED.
THESE SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS
CALM AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.FORECAST...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE
A SHARP LATITUDINAL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK
WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WEAK FORCING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINES AND MIGRATING
BOUNDARIES FROM THE FLORIDA MAINLAND AND CUBA MERGING DURING THE
DIURNAL PERIODS.

THERE IS A HINT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY BUT
WILL KEEP THOUGHTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT LOSING ITS
PUNCH NEAR THE COLLIER AND MONROE COUNTY BORDERS. EXPECT SOME
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
STALLING...AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
ORIENTED WITH A VERY SUBTLE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE KEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ONLY CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DISINTEGRATES. THEREAFTER A
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND INCREASING THESE WINDS. THE MOISTURE
FLUX DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS WILL REQUIRE
KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS AREA WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE KEYS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1920...THE TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST DIPPED TO 67 DEGREES. THIS SET THE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD
FOR OCTOBER FIRST IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  79  88  79 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  90  79  90  79 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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