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[Printable]
741
FXUS62 KKEY 160244
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...A VERY SHARP-
NATURED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
THE EASTERN STRAITS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THIS RIDGE IS VERY QUICKLY
BEING SQUELCHED AT THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDLEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE EASTERN US...BUT FOR NOW...MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE STRAITS HAS MET THE PERIL OF BOTH THE SUPPRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS RIDGE AND A STILL PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER...WHICH IS VISIBLE ON
BOTH KKEY AND KMFL 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS EVENING.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE ONLY CONVECTION FOUND ACROSS THE SERVICE THIS
EVENING WAS PRODUCED OVER THE MAINLAND OF FLORIDA...AND FOUND A
NARROW CHANNEL OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE ALL MOSTLY
CLEAR.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL LOW HAS DECOUPLED AND BEEN PUSHED INTO
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL REMOVED TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON OUR
LOCAL WINDS OR WEATHER PATTERNS. THIS LEAVES ONLY A DIFFUSE EXTENSION
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AS THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR OUR SURFACE WIND
PROFILE. MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS...KKEY SOUNDING AND VAD WIND
PROFILE BEFORE BIOLOGICAL CONTAMINATION ALL REFLECT ESE WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS...WHILE LAND BASED STATIONS ARE IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

.SHORT TERM...
AN EARLY UPDATE WAS NECESSARY THIS EVENING TO BOTH PUBLIC GRIDS AND
TEXT PRODUCTS. WEAK RADAR TRENDS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...AND THE EARLY INDICATIONS OF BOTH THE KKEY AND MFL LOW LEVEL
PROFILES ALL SUPPORTED A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE THAT UPDATE AT 8 PM... AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS HAVE SEEN ONLY
MODEST AMOUNTS OF INTENSIFICATION. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SKY COVER
AND WINDS WERE ALSO NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN WINDS...SHOWER...AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WERE REQUIRED IN AN UPDATE AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT TO THE COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST. GENERALLY EAST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE STRAITS. GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AFTER DAWN TOMORROW...CLOUD LINE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS FROM EAST TO NORTH THROUGH THE
FIRST 600 MB INDICATE THAT MOST CUMULUS TOWERS SHOULD BE SHEERED
APART AND THEREFORE NOT MUCH OF A CONSEQUENCE TO THE 00Z TAF
FORECAST. ANY BRIEF PASSING SHOWER IN PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY
REGIONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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