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221
FXUS62 KKEY 301946
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
246 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE LAST REMNANTS OF A LOW TROUGH
DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. THIS TRAJECTORY IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
DOWN...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70...AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SKIES
HAVE BEEN SUNNY WITH ONLY A FEW SHREDS OF CIRRUS PASSING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD.

FORECAST - THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...BECOMING BREEZY. ANOTHER SUBTLE SHOT OF COOLER AIR SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO
NONE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO TREND SHARPLY UPWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
EAST OF OUR AREA...DIRECTING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ALONG WITH MARITIME CLOUD LINES JUSTIFIES A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND A LOW MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THAT LOW SHIFTS OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ANOTHER HIGH CELL WILL FOLLOW EASTWARD BEHIND IT. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED DOWN INTO THE KEYS
AREA...HEADING INTO MID WEEK. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS
JUSTIFIED. VERY LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REACH OUR AREA...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER SURGING OUT OF THE EAST TO NEAR BREEZY MID WEEK...WINDS WILL
RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND A LOW DEEPENS WILL MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WEAKENING OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A GOOD COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE KEYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL ACCELERATE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY. WINDS WILL COLLAPSE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EARLY MORNING AND RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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