190
FXUS62 KKEY 031425
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM THE SPACE REFERENCE FRAME WE FIND NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM
KAREN JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE A TROUGH DIPS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN IS PUSHING AGAINST AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE KBYX RADAR IS DOWN AT THIS
HOUR...LAND TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM...MEANWHILE FROM
THE KAMX RADAR WE SEE CONVERGENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER KEYS. THE WIDER VIEW FROM COMPOSITE RADAR
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STRAITS
BETWEEN THE KEYS AND THE BAHAMAS. WINDS ARE QUITE GUSTY IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A GUST THIS MORNING TO 38
KNOTS AT THE WHITE STREET WFO.

.FORECAST...
THE FORECAST WILL BE FLUID TODAY...AND AS SUCH WILL LEAVE THE OPTION
OPEN TO UPDATE LATER DUE EVOLVING SCENARIO INCLUDING THE TROPICAL
STORM TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE TS AND THE RIDGING TO THE
NORTH PRODUCED A WEAK AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE KEYS LAST NIGHT
WHICH APPEARS TO BE BREAKING DOWN WITH THE NORTHERLY MOTION OF THE
TS. WITH THE NORTHERN MOTION OF THE SYSTEM EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
EXPAND OFF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ANY CHANGES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE MARINE WINDS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE SPLIT AT THE WEST END OF SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE FOR HIGHER WINDS TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY...REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE KEYS MARINE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT MAY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD
OF CAUTION FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/4TH...OUTSIDE OF A MVFR ENCOUNTER OR TWO...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. AWAY FROM CELLS
OR BOUNDARIES...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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