480
FXUS62 KKEY 240858
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
458 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...A CONFLUENT BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE MIAMI
AREA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
CUBAN COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NEAR
MIAMI TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS...WHILE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS DORMANT. MIMIC TPW IMAGERY AND LAST EVENINGS 00Z
SOUNDING PORTRAY THE SAME ANALYSIS...DRY AIR HAS WREAKED HAVOC ON
LOCAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE SPLIT RIDGE SURFACE PATTERN
WILL DEGRADE TODAY...AS THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
GULF PHASES WITH A MORE ROBUST CONTINENTAL CELL EMERGING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A
SHARPENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE
UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES EAST...THE CONTINENTAL CELL WILL BUILD INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT AN VARIABLE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE
OF A NORTHERLY CHARACTER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CONTINENTAL HIGH
STRENGTHENS...TRANSFORMS...AND EXPANDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON NORTHERLY
STEERING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY
OF MICRO COLD POOLS PROPAGATING FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
NEVERTHELESS...THESE GUST FRONTS WILL STRUGGLE WITH DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR...AND DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY. AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SURGE. HAVE RETAINED NEAR CLIMO
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES. THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...86/77.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL. AS THE CELL CREEPS
TO THE EAST...SUBTROPICAL SUBSIDENCE RELAXES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN INCREASES...ADD IN A TUTT-LIKE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE FORECAST ADVERTISES POPS A CATEGORY ABOVE
CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WETTER THAN NORMAL MID-WORK
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...XPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEYW AND KMTH TERMINAL
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE DAILY RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS LAST RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR
THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN MAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  78  87  77 / -  10 20 10
MARATHON  91  78  90  77 / -  10 20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......MSB

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