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001
FXUS62 KKEY 011346
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STALWART NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ALIGNED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT FEATURE...THE AXIS OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS
ACKLINS ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
OVERLAID ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM NOW DETAIL AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FLORIDA
KEYS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
ATLANTIC SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT ABOUT 35 NORTH 55 WEST.
UPSTREAM OF THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THE LONGITUDE OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BUT AS A RESULT OF
THE FIRST TWO FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT
KEY WEST CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A TYPICALLY MOIST MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO JUST BELOW 700 MB...WITH TOTAL
PWAT ([PRECIPITABLE WATER) JUST UNDER TWO INCHES AT 1.95.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJOINING
WATERS. LATEST KEY WEST RADAR SCANS DETECT WIDELY SCATTERED SMALL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. JUST A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED BY LIGHTNING DETECTION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS...AND THESE ARE CONFINED TO THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE
FLORIDA REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT ARE RECORDING SUSTAINED 10 METER
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLIES AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY...EXCEPT 15 TO 20
OUT AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT...AND ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF THE DAY...THE TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PROGGED BY NHC TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. THE KEYS WILL STILL REMAIN
BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 1020 RIDGING.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN A HEALTHY MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GIVEN
AVAILABLE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO LET DOWN A BIT MORE IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING GRADIENT TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT A LATE UPDATE WILL BE PERFORMED TO LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH
OF THE FLORIDA REEF AND POSSIBLY REMOVE THUNDER AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS OUT 60 NM FROM CRAIG KEY TO 20 NM WEST OF THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY.
MARINERS IN THE PATH OF ANY OF A FEW BRIEF SMALL SHOWERS COULD STILL
ENCOUNTER AN ISOLATED WIND GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/2ND...A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER IS POSSIBLE AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 16 AND
18 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY BACK IN 1980...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 3.25" WAS RECORDED. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE ATTM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.................DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE...........APA
DATA COLLECTION.....................SC

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