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896
FXUS62 KKEY 230853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BATTLING AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DESCRIBES THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE...WHILE
MOIST...ACCELERATING...AND DIFFLUENT AIR FANS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ROUNDING THE APEX
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PATTERN IS JUST AS
COMPLEX...NORTHEASTERLIES AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS HAVE INVADED PAST
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...NORTH OF A WARM- FRONTISH AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. IN BETWEEN THE BASEMENT AND ATTIC...THE RESIDUAL
VORTICITY OF TD 9 IS STRETCHING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...WELL DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM CIMSS. THE RADAR DEPICTION
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST 18 HOURS...CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH STRATIFORM EFFLUENT WRINGING-OUT
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE MID 70S...WHILE
TROPICAL DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...CONSOLIDATING AS IT NEARS THE KEYS ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE TODAY...THEN SLOWLY TRAIL OFF TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE CONFLUENT ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THE FLUSHING NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN
INTENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
GULF. THE NORTHEASTERLIES MAY FIRST BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING NON- TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO AIR OF MORE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEARER...RAIN
CHANCES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...AND HUMIDITY WILL DROP WITHIN
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL ECHO SATURDAY`S SENTIMENTS. THE CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE CELL WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE
EAST...HERALDING MARITIME MODIFICATION WHICH WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOCAL BREEZES WILL FLUCTUATE IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED TODAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG OVER MOST OF THE
AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BREEZES WILL REMAIN FRESH OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND FRESH OUT OF THE
EAST ON MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...A WET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY
AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT KEY WEST...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT
MARATHON...WITH A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  74  84  75 / 90 80 70 50
MARATHON  81  74  84  75 / 90 80 70 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ033-034-
     055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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