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657
FXUS62 KKEY 301846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DECAYING TUTT
CELL CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SLOWLY WESTWARD NEAR 25 NORTH 67 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PARKED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IS A PREFRONTAL BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AS WELL AS MARINES ZONES. 656...676...657...033...AND 034. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN AND ADJOINING WATERS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE
REACHED AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
C-MAN STATIONS ARE RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS...AND OTHER SENSORS 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE ISLANDS. KEY WEST
RADAR DETECTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT GIVEN INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...DO ANTICIPATE NEAR NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE ISLANDS...ALLOWING FOR A REVERSE CUMULUS
CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. GIVEN OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND THE SURFACE TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA...DO
ALSO EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE KEYS.

THEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE KEYS WILL BE IN A COL ZONE DURING
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING ALLOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THIS TIME...WHICH GIVEN MODEL FORECAST ILLUSTRATION OF PWAT
NEAR 1.75 INCHES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD CUMULUS CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS.

A WEAK RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN HEALTHY PWAT...EXPECT
CONTINUED TYPICAL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MORE
MILLIBARS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS. GIVEN DEEPENING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH EXPECTED PWAT AROUND 2.00 INCHES...AND
TYPICAL INSTABILITY...HAVE RAISED POPS UP 10% ABOVE CLIMO...WHICH IS
40 PERCENT FOR THESE THREE DAYS.

.MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LIGHTER PRESSURE PATTERN IS
INDICATED ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH AMPLE COLUMNAR MOISTURE...WILL HOLD
WITH CLIMO POPS...30%.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A CLOUDLINE IN HAWK CHANNEL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...SO
MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR THE SECOND DAY OF THE MINI-SEASON. THEN
EXPECT SLIGHT INCREASES ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS...WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE INDICATED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. EXPECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN AFTERNOON CLOUD LINE HAS
MATERIALIZED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND SO FAR...THIS LINE HAS
BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS AN OUTFLOW ENCROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE TERMINALS. BRIEF EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...AND CONVECTIVE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THESE STORMS
DEVELOP.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1886...2.65 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 128
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.............CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF/SC/MP

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