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[Printable]
811
FXUS62 KKEY 210028
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
828 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE KEYS AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS DUE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE WARMER GULF WATERS. THE LOW IS SLOWLY HEADING NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD LAYER IS VISIBLE FROM SATELLITE AND EXTENDS BACK
INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION...THERE ARE NO RETURNS
SHOWING ON THE KBYX RADAR...AND WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT
THE C-MAN STATIONS AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.FORECAST...
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CLOUD DECK
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BUT SINCE THE BACK YARD AT THE KEY WEST WFO IS
ALREADY DOWN TO 71...WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT A RANGE OF 68 TO 73 WOULD
BE THE BEST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
FOR WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN WE WILL ONLY SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND RELAX ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
SINKING SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL SWELL THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG THE FLORIDA STRAITS EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. THE CULPRIT IS THE
LONG DURATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...A CLOUD LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND OVER THE
WARMER GULF WATERS. AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY...THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD BREAK UP. DO NOT HAVE MVFR IN THE
CURRENT TAF BUT WILL AMEND...IF NEEDED...IF CLOUD LAYER LOWERS
FURTHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1930...2.60 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 20TH. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST...WHICH STILL STANDS 84 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.............................MSB

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