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[Printable]
535
FXUS63 KJKL 240700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR







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