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[Printable]
869
FXUS63 KJKL 272006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







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