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803
FXUS62 KJAX 200154
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH SAT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SAT...

.UPDATE...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...SFC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED W TO E ACROSS N CENTRAL FL
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER OFF OF NEW ENGLAND AROUND 1031
MB..PRODUCING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST. FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF 1.95 INCHES WITH ENE FLOW
UP THROUGH 700 MB. A SFC TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE NE FL AND SE GA
COASTS ORIENTED N TO S...WITH SIGNS OF A BROAD SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OFF OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

AN WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD TO
THE E CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SEWD THROUGH
SAT AND HELP DEEPEN THE SFC LOW OFF THE FL E COAST WHILE TRACKING
NE OR ENE. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...BUT REGARDLESS...ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. HAVE LOW END
CHANCE POPS INLAND THIS EVENING...DROPPING TO 20% OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVER THE ERN ZONES/COASTAL COUNTIES/SRN MOST ZONES...WE
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DUE TO QUITE IMPRESSIVE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN IMPACT AT THIS TIME...MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND WILL INCLUDE IN WEATHER
GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE FROM TONIGHT INTO SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COAST...TO UPPER 60S INLAND UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVERGENT BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP VCSH GOING AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
AT GNV. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE
MVFR AT GNV AND SSI BY 09Z. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AND VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT GNV...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND MOVES
NE.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. WIND ARE ENE AROUND 15-20 KT
AT 41008 AND MODELS SUGGEST WINDS MORE OR LESS STAYING IN THIS RANGE
INTO SAT WITH POSSIBLE SHORT LIVED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT. A
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT ISSUE AND KEEP THE SCEC HEADLINE FOR ST AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND. SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND SAT FOR THIS AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS/SEAS SRN MOST WATERS...BUT OVERALL POOR
SMALL BOATING CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THRU SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST MODERATE RISK EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  83  66  86 /  30  50  40  10
SSI  72  80  71  82 /  70  70  70  30
JAX  69  83  68  84 /  60  70  60  20
SGJ  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  40
GNV  68  84  66  85 /  40  50  50  40
OCF  68  84  67  86 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET










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