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284
FXUS62 KJAX 242004
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ELONGATED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES FROM LIVE OAK NORTHEAST TO
WAYCROSS AND JESUP AND MOVEMENT OF THE BAND TOWARDS THE E/SE HAS
BEEN VERY SLOW. STILL A CHANCE OF SOME STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS  OF 40-50 MPH AS WEAK ENERGY/LIFT ROTATE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GOMEX IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY CATCHES
UP TO THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW MINI BOW ECHO/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THESE
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE ONLY FEATURE TO OCCUR INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT KJAX AT 86
DEGREES BUT LOOKS TO FALL SHORT AT OTHER CLIMATE SITES AS THE WARM
S/SW SURFACE FLOW AT 15-20G25-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...PRE-FRONTAL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SE INTO
NE FL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG WITH ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL LIFT/ENERGY TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS INLD SE GA THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH
THIS FEATURE CATCHING UP TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF...SHOULD SEE A
RENEWED COVERAGE OF RAIN...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TOWARDS
MORNING AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES FALL INTO THE 20-40% RANGE THIS
EVENING THEY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60-80% RANGE TOWARDS MORNING.
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS NEAR THE GROUND WILL ENHANCE THE FORMATION
OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS AND OVERCAST CEILING JUST OFF THE GROUND
AT CLOSE TO 500 FEET WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE 1-3 MILE
RANGE AT TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE REGION BUT WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF ZFP/GRIDS
FOR NOW SINCE VSBYS WILL FALL MAINLY DUE TO LOW STRATUS DECK AND
NOT AS MUCH DUE TO SURFACE FOG FORMATION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
PROBLEMATIC TEMP FORECAST AS EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
60S ACROSS COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT THEY
WILL FALL INTO THE 50S. THE TEMPS SHOULD FALL SLOW ENOUGH TO STILL
ALLOW FOR NEW CALENDAR DAY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS TO BE SET AT
GAINESVILLE AND JACKSONVILLE FOR NOVEMBER 24TH.

.SHORT TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TUESDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW LIFT/ENERGY WILL HELP PUSH
FRONT  SLOWLY ACROSS NE FL WHILE RAINFALL RATES/INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AMOUNTS PUSHING CLOSE TO 1 INCH BY
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE COOL/MOIST NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT  AT THE SURFACE WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS NEAR MORNING VALUES FROM
I-10 NORTHWARD ACROSS SE GA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S WHILE
JUST SOUTH OF THE INCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEMPS START NEAR 70
AND SEE A BUMP INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY NOT SEE ANY
BUMP IN TEMPS ACROSS NE FL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING N/NE WIND
AT 10-15G20 MPH WILL MAKE FOR RATHER COOL/RAINY CONDS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES BASICALLY 80-100 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT BULK OF SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY RAINFALL SLATED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY HAPPEN IN THAT TIME FRAME. MODELS/SPC CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
MOIST AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE AND LIFT/SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR COULD
STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ROTATING STORMS WHICH COULD BE
STRONG/SEVERE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF THEY CAN BECOME SURFACE
BASED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...BUT SEVERE WEATHER PROBS REMAIN AT 5%
OR LESS AT THIS TIME. THE LIFT/ENERGY ALOFT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
ELEVATED STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.

TUES NIGHT...A SHARPENING TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL
MAXIMIZE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE THREAT
FOR  EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
BECOMING SURFACE BASED DURING THE EVENING HOURS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND STRENGTHENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS REGION-WIDE...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUING IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS. LOCALIZED URBAN/LOW LYING AREAS/SMALL STREAM FLOOD THREAT
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT TIDAL INFLUENCES IN URBAN AREAS SUCH
AS BRUNSWICK AND JACKSONVILLE WILL BE MINIMIZED DUE TO A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S AT
THE COAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF
THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD AS TROUGHING ALOFT PROGRESSES INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND NW WINDS OF 10-15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR
REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE NOV CLIMO. A REINFORCING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WED NIGHT...KEEPING
A LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WIND IN PLACE THAT SHOULD KEEP LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE
MID 40S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COOL SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THURS AND FRI WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS POSSIBLY TOUCHING FREEZING INLAND ON FRI
MORNING...RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES INTO GA...WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
WARM TO THE 65-70 RANGE ON SAT AND 70-75 ON SUN. LOWS INLAND WILL
MODERATE INTO THE 40S THIS WEEKEND...WITH 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FEET IN THE MOIST S/SW FLOW AT 10-15
KNOTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW SHOWERS AFTER 21Z AT TAF SITES AND
FOR NOW WITH TSTM CHANCES LESS THAN 25% HAVE KEPT JUST VCSH IN
CURRENT TAF SUITE. WITH THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG
FROM LOW CEILINGS AND EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 500 FT WITH
VSBYS FALLING INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW/N AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS IS SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN EASTERLY SWELL
BUT STILL HAVE COMBINED SEAS OF 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT
OFFSHORE AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS OFFSHORE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LAST SWAN MODEL RUN WILL TAKE A
FINAL LOOK BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE S/SW WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE...THEN
FOLLOWING SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY A N/NE WIND SURGE INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WILL START TO BUILD SEAS SLOWLY AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SURGE TO SCA LEVELS ON TUES NIGHT AND WED...CONTINUING
OFFSHORE THROUGH THURS. SEAS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WILL PEAK
IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND DECREASE TO
CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE BY THURS NIGHT AND FRI.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LONG
PERIOD SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM THE LAST EVENT. BREAKER REPORTS
REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAPPEN OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME
FRAME (24 HOURS) WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING SO THAT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT LOCALIZED/AREAL FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN NORMALLY
FLOOD PRONE/LOW LYING AREAS. RIVER LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
SHARPLY BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE ON ANY BASINS AS PER
THE FORECAST QPF IN MODELS AT THIS TIME. ACTION STAGE MAY BE
REACHED ON THE SANTA FE RIVER BASIN FOLLOWING THE RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 24TH...
JAX 67/1992...GNV 68/1957...AMG 65/1977...SSI 67/1998

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 24TH...
JAX 85/1967...GNV 86/1948...AMG 83/1986...SSI 83/1967

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  58  47  56 /  70  70  90  30
SSI  65  65  48  55 /  70  80  90  40
JAX  65  69  47  56 /  70  90 100  40
SGJ  67  73  50  58 /  50 100 100  40
GNV  67  72  48  57 /  60 100 100  30
OCF  66  76  51  58 /  50 100 100  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH








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