weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  
[Printable]
887
FXUS62 KJAX 252119
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
520 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL AND ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA AHEAD OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WIND GUSTS 30 MPH OR LESS...A FEW STORMS
STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
STORM MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE E/NE AT 15 MPH HAS KEPT LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AN INCH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS SE GA UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG TOWARDS
MORNING. NEAR CLIMO LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED AND THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE BIG
BEND REGION OF THE GULF COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS SLIPPING
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AROUND SUNRISE.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE LOCALLY THROUGH THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS. MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESIDE
ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
TODAY...WITH CONVECTION BEING INITIATED BY THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...PROGRESSING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ENCOUNTERING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MID 90S INLAND...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT AROUND 105
DEGREES BEFORE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS AT THE
BEACHES REACHING THE LOWER 90S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
IN SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TYPICALLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S INLAND...AND THE LOW/MID 90S AT THE
COAST. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ON SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER W AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THANKS TO A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THE SLIDES SEWD ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUN THROUGH MON. A SFC
COLD FRONT POISED OVER THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
TUE ENDING UP IN SE GA TUE AFTN/EVENING. MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY
ON MON BUT MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER SUNDAY`S...THOUGH
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. WE HAVE
PAINTED CHANCES OF ABOUT 30% AREA WIDE FOR NOW. WE CONTINUE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MON IN THE MID 90S.

TUE...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT AND ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH-END CHANCE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST FL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH DECREASING POPS IN SE GA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES DUE TO DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NW. WED AND
THU...THE WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OR DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER S
OVER NRN FL. A WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT AND TRANSIENT A WEAK LOW PRES
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR W AND E COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW LEVELS...THE AIRMASS
LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AND THUS NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHANCES SO WILL KEEP THEM IN THE
LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM OF CLIMATE VALUES AROUND 20-30% RANGE AT
THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE LONG
TERM DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND TUE DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NE FL AND WILL SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE JAX METRO TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE PLACED BRIEF
TEMPO GROUPS OF 2 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. AFTERNOON STORMS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY OVER FOR KGNV AND
HAVE LEFT JUST VCTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN DELAYED
FOR KSSI AND HAVE TEMPO GROUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 21-23Z TIME
FRAME. AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS/STORMS END AND HAVE CONDS BECOMING VFR
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGNV/KVQQ BTWN 07-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 2-4 FT. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY APPROACH 15 KNOTS BUT HEADLINES
ARE NOT EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE FROM OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THAT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS. AS NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK...SWLY NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD APPROACH
15-20 KNOTS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  74  96 /  30  40  20  20
SSI  77  91  77  92 /  50  40  30  30
JAX  74  93  74  94 /  20  40  30  30
SGJ  75  90  75  91 /  20  40  30  20
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  10  50  20  20
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  10  50  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH








U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE