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002
FXUS62 KJAX 180047
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE DOWN THE ATLC COASTAL AREAS
WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE GOMEX. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CONTINUED GUSTY E/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY. A
SINGULAR BAND OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC
W/SW INTO THE JAX METRO AREA AND NORTHWARD TO THE FL/GA BORDER.
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE SOME RAINFALL FROM THE EASTERN
GOMEX AND TREND NORTHEAST ENOUGH TOWARDS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT
THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY/INLD SE GA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WINDS
WILL KEEP MOST AREAS WITH STEADY TEMPS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...AS LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST GOMEX IT WILL SEND LARGE
SLUG OF MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL LIFT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS OF ISOLD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS SE GA BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NE FL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE
GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BUT MAY BE MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF ON FRIDAY...TERMINALS
WILL TREND TOWARD PREVAILING IFR IN THE MORNING...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
NE/E WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS THEY SLOWLY BECOME E/SE BY
THE AFTERNOON AT 15-20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AS SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 7-10 FT
RANGE.

SURF ZONE/RIP CURRENTS: LOCAL BEACH REPORTS TODAY SUPPORT HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH BREAKERS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE JUST
BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT WITH TIDAL
DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL COME IN JUST BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE URBANIZED AREAS
OF JACKSONVILLE, BRUNSWICK AND ST AUGUSTINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH STORM RAINFALL TOTALS BY SATURDAY WILL PUSH
RIVER FLOODING WELL INTO MODERATE FLOODING CATEGORIES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVER BASINS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE RIVER BASINS REACH OR REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY STATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  62  54  67 /  30 100 100  50
SSI  61  69  60  66 /  30 100 100  60
JAX  62  73  60  67 /  30 100  90  50
SGJ  66  74  63  69 /  30 100  90  50
GNV  62  75  60  70 /  40 100  90  40
OCF  65  77  62  72 /  40  90  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER





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