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314
FXUS62 KJAX 021320
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH -7C TO -8C 500MB TEMPS AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ABOVE MOIST
LAYER...WITH HEATING SUPPORTING AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG.
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW/MID 20S GIVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PAST FEW
DAYS WHEN WE EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE SOUTH THAN NORTH. TODAY...
MODELS SUGGEST GREATER COVERAGE NORTH...INITIALLY ALONG SE GA
COAST SEA BREEZE AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE DUE TO HEATING AND
INTERACTION WITH APPARENT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AS INDICATED
BY SWIRL OF MID CLOUDINESS OVER CTRL GA WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
E OR SE. MODELS SUGGEST LESSER COVERAGE AS YOU GO SOUTHWARD...
WITH EXCEPTION OF WHERE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONVERGE
TOWARD EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY POP GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO.

HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD...WITH MID 90S INTERIOR...
LOW 90S INLAND COUNTIES...AND UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT LOWER VICINTY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA. GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED
WELL INLAND OF SE GA/NE FL COMPARED TO COAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE INTENSE DOWNBURSTS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. S/SE
WINDS UNDER 15 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS
MAINLY 2-3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES
THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: GENERAL LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY SMALL
SWELLS AROUND 1-2 FT AND WEAK ONSHORE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF WIND INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH E COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  73  95  73 /  60  50  40  30
SSI  89  76  88  76 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  92  73  92  73 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  88  74  88  75 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  92  71  92  71 /  50  40  30  30
OCF  92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET







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