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630
FXUS64 KJAN 301512
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE
AREA IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST...BUT
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT
HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
PER 00Z KJAN SOUNDING WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.56 INCHES. EVEN DRIER AIR
IS LOCATED FURTHER NORTH WITH 0.94 INCH PW VALUE ON KLZK 00Z
SOUNDING. THE MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS OVER 2
INCHES IS STILL OBSERVED ON KLIX SOUNDING. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING
SHOW LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THIS
DRIER AIR IS SITUATED AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE CONVECTION.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESIDE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SHOWN VERY WELL ON HI-RES MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW THE DRIER AIR PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS...ALONG WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
FORCING OTHER THAN HEATING...WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THAT ALL BEING SAID...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR TODAY
IN THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER IN THE WEST AND STILL A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP SOME HOLD. FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AS THE BETTER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUTSIDE OF
CHANCES FOR RAIN...CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. /28/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ON SHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WE EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1KM SRH 150-200
M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KTS) COMBINED WITH ML CAPE >
1000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE DELTA. GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING AND THE SHEAR...EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITH A MIXTURE OF STORM MODES GIVEN THE WESTERLY SHEAR
VECTORS ALOFT. THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE
DELTA REGION WHERE TIMING/INSTABILITY AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
BEST...AND LATEST CIPS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THIS COULD
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING IF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYS BACKED LONGER. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS...KEEPING IT FOCUSED
OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS AT THIS POINT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN
BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S SATURDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AT
MEI AND HBG AS A STUBBORN DECK OF STRATUS SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST.
THOSE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE TO VFR LEVELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  67  91  70 /   1  10  10  20
MERIDIAN      89  62  90  67 /   1  10   5  17
VICKSBURG     90  66  91  70 /   2  11  14  17
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  71 /   6   8  15  17
NATCHEZ       89  68  90  72 /   6   9  30  20
GREENVILLE    89  66  91  70 /   1   7   7  14
GREENWOOD     89  64  91  70 /   1   7   6  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/28/EC/









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