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693
FXUS64 KJAN 180242 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN OVER IN ARKANSAS WITH
SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WAS
TRIGGERED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARISHES BEFORE 12Z. FOR THE UPDATE...POPS
WERE LOWERED IN ORDER TO CUT DOWN ON THE BREADTH OF POSSIBILITY FOR
THE RAIN REACHING INTO OUR CWA. OTHERWISE THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
LOOK PRETTY GOOD. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
LOWERING CIGS (~3000 TO 5000 FT) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE GLH/GWO TO JAN/HKS AREA. EXPECT LOWER
CIGS/-RA TO KEEP MAINLY WEST OF THE GTR/MEI CORRIDOR AS WE GO THROUGH
THURS AFTN/EVNG. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH TO THE N OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE E TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUALLY STREAM IN FROM THE W/SW IN ADVANCE OF THE S/WV TO
OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL BE COLD TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S/LOW 40S IN THE W.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS UP IN THE NW DELTA
TONIGHT WITH THE 18Z GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z EURO ON LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY IN THE FAR NW DELTA TONIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN THE N TO LOW 60S IN THE S DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL
WAA BRINGING H925 TEMPS UP NEAR 8-11 DEG C WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
FURTHER TO THE N/NW. GFS SEEMED GOOD FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER S TX...H3/H5 UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND AID IN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE W/SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. SOME MAUL POTENTIAL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SW. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS. AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS NEAR 100KTS+...THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TRACK E AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS E. DUE TO SPLIT FLOW/UL DIFFLUENCE/DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BEGIN IN THE W AND SPREADING TO THE E FRIDAY. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO MAUL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...WENT NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH CUT HIGHS AROUND 3 DEGREES OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY. 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS S OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO TRACK INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE W. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS...WENT NEAR
EURO FOR LOWS WHICH WAS WARMER SATURDAY MORNING. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM
THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS
SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  56  44  52 /   8  26  28  88
MERIDIAN      36  56  40  50 /   0  21  17  79
VICKSBURG     40  56  45  51 /  12  28  38  94
HATTIESBURG   36  63  45  55 /   0  10  19  61
NATCHEZ       42  58  50  55 /  10  28  48  97
GREENVILLE    40  49  42  49 /  31  25  19  84
GREENWOOD     39  52  41  48 /  17  25  15  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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