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492
FXUS63 KIWX 241729
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
129 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP GIVEN LACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND UNFAVORABLE POSITION IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A SRN
CANADA TO NRN LAKES UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SKIES BEGINNING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BUT DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS. REGARDLESS...TAFS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH MOIST
LOWER LEVELS AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT SAT MORNING TO REMAIN
CLOUDY AGAIN WITH MIXING AND CLEARING FOLLOWING MAIN FRONT BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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