935
FXUS63 KIWX 192340
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
740 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING
WARMER AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATE TO REMOVE LATE AFTN WORDING FROM ZFP. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO GRIDS WAS FOR A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AS RETURN
FLOW ADVECTS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

STAGNANT...BUT PERFECT WEATHER FOR MID JUNE WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
REGION. FEW POCKETS/BANDS OF CU WERE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BUT WON`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
ADVECT IN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE HIGHER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY HOLDING OFF TILL OUTSIDE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

PREV FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE OVERALL ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO LOWER CLOUD COVER
SOMEWHAT IN AFTERNOON AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN TEMPS (ONLY A FEW
DEGREES) AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE CREPT UPWARDS SLIGHTLY.


&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

A DEEP CLOSED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BE ON THE
INCREASE LOCALLY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE WITH THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E SURGE AND WARM FRONT
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK FLOW AND NOSE OF
LLJ FOCUSING WELL NW OF THE FA WARRANTS ONLY LOW CHC POPS. CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO NEAR 20C SHOULD SUPPORT
MAINLY DRY/HOT WX BY SUNDAY.

MID LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...WITH
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE IWX
CWA...FAVORING MAINLY DRY/HOT WX. HOWEVER...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY FORCE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
INVOF THE THETA-E/INSTABILITY GRADIENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
WESTERLIES...WHICH MAKES THE POP/TEMP FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY A LOW
CONFIDENCE ONE GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD FORCE A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/MCS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST (LOW POPS AND HIGH END OF TEMP GUIDANCE).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH ACROSS NRN
INDIANA THURSDAY ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY SCT CU IN THE AFTN... SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF IL TODAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA