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[Printable]
999
FXUS63 KIND 201050
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PULLED PRE-FIRST PERIOD POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A TERRE HAUT TO NOBLESVILLE LINE PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...850-500 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE...VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND FINALLY RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST POPS TODAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE EXITS PRIOR TO 12Z. WITH
1000-850 MILLIBAR LAYER REMAINING MOIST...COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CU AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH LATE DAY
EAST.

WITH WARMER MOS NUMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN...PREFER TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN CONSALL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST LOOKING REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT ALONG WITH FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...PREFER TO JUST KEEP MORE CLOUD
COVER THERE FOR NOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE LAKE IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DRY FORECAST MATCHES UP BETTER WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS.

BY MIDWEEK...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS PER BLEND ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FROST LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
MORE SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE KINK IN THIS IS ON FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TO OHIO...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ALL IT
WILL DO IS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BUT THEN RETURN
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SEVERAL OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. EXPECT LOWER
/BUT STILL VFR/ CEILINGS TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING UNDER
CYCOLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

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