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[Printable]
395
FXUS63 KIND 280441
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR INDIANA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
TO THE EAST OF INDIANA ON FRIDAY...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
GET SLOWLY WARMER AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK...MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLIGHTLY DELAYED
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. COOL NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AMID BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST. RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF
FLURRIES WAS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THIS
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DIVES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. GOOD DRYING SEEN IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS AS THE FLOW LOWER FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A CLEARING SKY OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL TREND LOW TEMPS TOWARD A BLEND IN THE TEENS AS
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ZONAL
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND WARMER...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BEGINS. 850MB TEMPS ON
FRIDAY RISE TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z SAT. MID LEVELS SUGGEST A WARM AIR
ADVECTION MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD DECK PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT
AS THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS LITTLE MOISTURE AND FEW DYNAMIC
PASSING. WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD 8-9C ON 00Z SUNDAY. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE POSSIBLE CLOUDS AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIAN BY 00Z. FOR NOW WILL
TRY AND HOLD OFF ON POPS AS BEST FORCING STILL APPEARS WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AS WELL AS FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW AS THE FIRST 12-24
HOURS PASS. REMOVED LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
NEWEST GFS DID NOT SUPPORT IT WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
AREA...AND LAST NIGHTS EURO WAS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE. ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS AND THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS LOWER CEILINGS 030-040 IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS MOST OF THESE CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AT THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME...EXCEPT FOR KIND WHICH SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME 170-190 DEGREES AT 8-11 KTS BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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