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[Printable]
970
FXUS63 KIND 231007
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK REPRESENTS
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEATHER IS NIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. THIS LEAVES
TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST LOW 70S
MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MODEL BLEND AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE CONSENSUS UPWARDS TO MATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN EXTREMELY QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FACTOR. TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST A GRADUAL WARMING...AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MODEL CONSENSUS TO MATCH THIS
EXPECTATION. SHOULD SEE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA
EASILY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ON MIN TEMPS...HAVE GENERALLY LEANED
TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. MODELS HINTING AT A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CARRIED LOW
CHANCES OF POPS DURING THIS TIME AND LEFT ONLY SHOWERS IN FORECAST
FOR NOW AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOOK TOO WEAK TO MENTION EVEN
ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231200Z/...

ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VERY LIGHT TO CALM WIND THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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