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[Printable]
835
FXUS63 KIND 021610
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WEEK WILL SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO BELOW
AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM LAST NIGHT/S
EVENT ARE CURRENTLY LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY WITHIN AN HOUR.
LOWERED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY LOWER THAN
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME SINCE CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A MUCH DRIER AIR COLUMN AFTER TUE
18Z...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY CURRENT FORECAST. SO...NO CHANGES
TO THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. CURRENTLY TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND SHOULD STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RAPIDLY DRYING
AIR COLUMN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER 12Z WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTH BUT TAPER TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. FORCING WILL WEAKEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST AND COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
AREAS DRY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPERATURES TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN THIS MORNING HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS.
MAV MAY BE OVERDOING EXTENT OF DRIER AIR THAT WORKS INTO THE AREA
SINCE FLOW REMAINS MORE ZONAL. WILL GO WARMER THAN MAV MOS FOR LOWS
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION POPS ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN
FORCING DOESN/T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. SREF POPS ARE LOW SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA.
NOT SURE THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP AND SREF POPS ARE AGAIN
LOW...BUT SINCE MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY HAD POPS IN DID NOT WANT TO
FLIP-FLOP. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND THEN TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRY WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

REGIONAL BLEND GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF MARKEDLY TO THE 70S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 021500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1208 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY ENTERS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT PASSES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING RAIN...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC CATEGORIES AND TIMING ARE NOT GREAT
THIS EARLY IN THE GAME. FOR NOW...WENT MVFR AT IND AND LAF AND IFR
AT HUF AND BMG AFTER 06Z. ALSO HINTED AT POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS
WITH SCATTERED LOW DECK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JK

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