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088 FXUS63 KILX 021529 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1029 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014 15z/10am surface analysis shows cold front west of the Illinois River, with widespread clouds blanketing much of central and southeast Illinois. Scattered showers are ongoing along/south of I-70, while isolated radar returns have been noted further north under the low cloud deck. With front making only slow progress eastward, have adjusted PoPs to carry isolated showers east of I-55 through early afternoon and scattered showers throughout the afternoon further east and south. Have also adjusted sky grids to indicate a slower west-to-east clearing trend. With more cloud cover around than previously forecast, think afternoon highs will be a couple of degrees cooler as well. Have lowered them mainly into the lower 80s. Skies will eventually clear out tonight, and with light winds beneath weak surface ridge, think fog will develop after midnight. 12z NAM forecast soundings suggest the most widespread fog may be concentrated across the E/SE KILX CWA, where skies will be slowest to clear this afternoon. As a result, have added areas of fog along/east of I-57 tonight, with patchy fog further west across the remainder of the area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014 Surface cold front moving into central Illinois early this morning with light shower activity along the front from around Peoria to Pontiac. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms affecting areas from around I-72 southward with the activity gradually shifting into far southern Illinois along a corridor of high precipitable water around 2 inches with a strong low level jet and convergence. Radar indicates a swath of around 4-5 inches of rain has fallen this evening from just south of Effingham to Robinson. Current radar indicates scattered rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour are now confined to Jasper, Crawford, Richland, and Lawrence counties and areas to the south and east...and trending southeastward. A number of flash flood warnings as well as a flash flood watch and a flood advisory continue in this area. This activity should continue through around 7 a.m. with lingering showers and thunderstorms continuing to subside through the afternoon as the system responsible moves eastward. Cool and dry conditions expected tonight as dry air and subsidence moves over central Illinois in the post frontal environment. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014 The frontal boundary is expected to return north as a warm front in Missouri and western IL during Wednesday. The 00Z model guidance has trended a bit quicker with a short wave moving out of MO into IL Wed afternoon and into IN Wed evening. Best chances of convection still apears to be over sw IL into MO where better 850 mb low level jet will be and more moisture transport. Confined pops to areas from I-74 sw on Wed. Warmer and more humid air starting to return back to central/se IL with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints elevating into the upper 60s and lower 70s Wed afternoon and highest in sw counties. Have 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over northern counties by IL river valley Wed night mainly after midnight as the instability axis, thermal ridge, and nose of the 850mb LLJ advance toward northwest IL. Thu still appears to be the warmest day this week with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s with breezy sw winds and well entrenched in the warm sector. Peak afternoon heat indices may reach into the upper 90s to around 100F on Thu. Most areas should be dry Thu with just isolated convection near the Wabash river Thu afternoon. Low pressure deepening ne from the northern plains to north of the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into the IL river valley early Friday morning and into southern Illinois by Friday evening. Have 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight Thu night over the IL river valley. Then a good chance of showers and thunderstorms spreading se across central/se IL during the day Friday and continue Friday night. Still a very warm and humid day Friday with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with southeast IL near 90F southeast of I-70. Lingered chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday south of I-72, with diminishing chances in southeast IL during Saturday afternoon as frontal boundary pushes se into TN river valley. A significant airmass change will follow that frontal passage, as a 1024 mb Canadian high pressure builds southeast into the western Great Lakes. Less humid air along with cooler highs Sunday and Monday in the 70s, with lows Saturday and Sunday night in the 50s. This will be the coolest air since mid August to visit central IL, the last time we had below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014 Generally IFR ceilings across central IL this morning as heavy rain and thunderstorms have moved east of the area. Low cloud cover should lift and dissipate later this morning with scattered low cloud cover expected to result in mainly VFR conditions across the area by 14Z. Isolated TSRA to redevelop after 17Z from K1H2-KRSV southward could result in isolated MVFR cig/vsby and gusty winds until 00Z. 00Z-06Z mainly VFR conditions and light winds. Fog likely to develop by early morning resulting in IFR visibilities or worse and many locations after 06-09Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BARNES SHORT TERM...ONTON LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...ONTON