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258 FXUS63 KILX 082005 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 205 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 200 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014 SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Main focus this forecast period will be with the above normal temperatures through Tuesday. The weak weather system that produced the light rain and snow over parts of the forecast area this morning into the afternoon hours will continue to slowly shift away from central Illinois this evening. Any lingering threat for light rain early this evening over the far southeast will be gone by mid to late evening as high pressure edges in from the west overnight. Forecast soundings off the GFS suggest a general clearing trend from northwest to southeast this evening as the large fair weather system approaches our area. However, with the residual moisture left from the light precip that occurred today we may see some fog form overnight into Sunday morning. With temps forecast well below freezing, we will have to watch out for some slick bridge decks and overpasses Sunday morning. Any lingering fog should lift by mid morning as a drier west to southwest flow overtakes the area. A fast moving shortwave tracking well to our north tomorrow afternoon should help increase winds at the surface by afternoon, which in turn, will push temperatures well into the 40s north and into the lower 50s southwest. A stronger shortwave will then track across the northern Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday dragging a frontal boundary southeast into the Northern Plains with a prefrontal trof situated from southeast Minnesota southwest thru central Iowa. Just ahead of this trof, gusty southwest winds Monday afternoon will mix down some fairly warm temperatures with highs expected to top out in the upper 50s north to possibly the upper 60s southwest. Despite the rather warm temps depicted aloft on forecast soundings, it still may be tough to mix all the way down from 875 mb, especially across our north and with as much high cloud cover that is depicted on the soundings. A cold front will be pushing through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning without much fanfare as moisture, at least initially, will be quite limited. It appears the front will stall out along or just north of the I70 corridor Tuesday so some fairly warm temps will be seen again Tuesday afternoon south of the boundary, while further north, temperatures may cool some 5 to 10 degrees from Monday`s highs. The forecast becomes a bit more complicated for Tuesday night as the models continue to show some spread with respect to phasing/no phasing of the 500 mb trof which is forecast to swing through our area on Wednesday. Latest couple of runs of the ECMWF have swung over to the more progressive/less phased look, while the GFS, GEM and UK solutions remain fairly consistent in the more progressive less phased solutions. Rain should develop Tuesday evening as the upper system and lift approaches the area with forecast soundings suggesting a change to some wet snow at the tail end of the event Wednesday morning, at least across the north half of the forecast area. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday Based on the more progressive solution of the 500 mb trof and the associated surface low to our southeast on Wednesday, any snow and rain should quickly push off to our east during the afternoon with a fairly good shot of 850 mb cold advection depicted over our area as the system pulls away. That should not last very long as models indicate the upper flow deamplifies across the central U.S. for a day or two allowing warmer temps to return for the end of the work week. Next shortwave late in the week will pass well to our north keeping any significant threat for precip north as well. Gusty southwest winds Friday afternoon will push temperatures well into the 50s again with only slight cooling noted for Saturday as a weak cold front slips to our south. Smith && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1143 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2014 Low clouds blanket central Illinois late this morning...with mainly low MVFR ceilings noted. Frontal boundary continues to sag southward into the Ohio River Valley: however, clearing will be slow to arrive from the northwest due to weak cloud-layer flow. Models do not have a good handle on the situation, as the GFS scours out the clouds this evening, while the NAM holds on to overcast conditions through Sunday morning. Even though flow is weak, satellite trends suggest clearing currently taking place over central/northern Iowa will arrive across the area this evening. Will therefore break up the clouds at KPIA by 02z, then further east to KCMI by around 04z. Once skies clear, ample low-level moisture due to recent snow melt and very light precip may lead to fog development as winds become light/variable beneath ridge axis overnight. Will lower visbys to around 3sm after 09z accordingly. After that, southwesterly winds on the back side of the departing high will lead to improving visbys and mostly clear skies by mid-morning Sunday. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$