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283
FXUS63 KILX 301549
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1049 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014
Small wave moving into the Midwest this morning bringing some
showers across Missouri and into Illinois. Some rain showers
moving into the Jacksonville area early. Have adjusted the pops
for the next few hours for some showers in west central Illinois,
but plenty of dry air in the region will probably help to keep any
widespread precip at bay. Temperatures doing well with minimal
cloud cover to the east ahead of the scattered showers. No major
updates required, but have freshened up the hourly grids as well
as the pops in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

High pressure centered over the area will slowly drift east today
and give way to a weather system approaching from the west. This low
pressure area will move east and then southeast while another low
pressure area moves across the Great Lakes region. Both of these are
associated with an upper level trough that will be moving through
the area today. These features will not have a lot of moisture to
work with, but will bring a chance of showers to the CWA today. Pops
will be only in the chance category and not expecting any
thunderstorms at this time. Light winds this morning will become
southeast, and then easterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should be around 5 to 10 mph.

MOS guidance looks ok, but MAV looks a little warm in the southeast
given the expected cloud cover and chance of pcpn. So, mid to upper
50s looks reasonable for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

An extended period of below normal temperatures is still expected
across central and southeast Illinois into next week. The coldest
period will extend from Friday to Sunday, with a hard freeze likely
early Saturday and Sunday mornings. A bit too early for a Freeze
Watch being 4th and 6th periods, but will issue a special weather
statement to address the the freezing conditions that will likely
end the growing season. This will be the first hard freeze across
the forecast area and running about two weeks later than normal.
Halloween Trick or Treat conditions will be less than ideal with
actual temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s and wind chill
values in the upper 20s and lower 30s late Friday afternoon into
early Friday evening with blustery north winds gusting to around
35 mph at times Friday afternoon.

The short wave that tracks across MO and sw IL by sunset, and into
the mid MS river valley by midnight tonight, and into western KY/TN
by dawn Fri, will linger chances of rain showers especially over
southeast IL. A much stronger northern stream short wave, currently
diving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will track across the Great
Lakes/Midwest on Friday. Most of the moisture will be east of IL
Friday and Friday night and just have small chances of light rain
showers in far eastern IL Friday and then mixes with or changes to
light snow by Friday evening over IN. However, this system will be
accompanied by gusty north winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 25 to 40
mph and will help usher in the airmass that will provide our hard
freeze for Friday and Saturday nights with lows 25-30F both nights.

Upper level ridging will shift eastward into IL late in the weekend
into early next week with temperatures modifying Mon-Wed with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The ridge will shift east of IL later
Monday into Tue while strong upper level low/trof digs into the
southern Rockies. This puts IL in an unsettled upper level sw flow
and increasing chances of showers Mon-Tue night as a frontal system
sets up from the southern plains ne into the Ohio river valley.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur Monday night and Tue south of
I-72. Best rain chances will shift se into the Ohio river valley Wed
and lingered 20-30% chances of showers over southeast IL. Drier
weather expected Wed night and Thu with highs still in the 50s on
Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Believe VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Mid and high clouds currently advecting over the area this
morning; but lower clouds will begin to move into the area later
this morning and through the afternoon. Lines of showers over
northern parts of MO will advect into the area and begin effecting
central IL around the noon hour, and based on the models, looks
like on and off rain through tomorrow evening. Showers should have
entered the CWA by around 18z, and then continue to advect through
the CWA during the evening hours. QPF amount is small for this
afternoon and evening, but more pcpn is coming across northern
MO, and will be moving into the area around 18z. Winds will be
light and variable to start, but then become southerly ahead of
the boat that is out there. As the low pressure area pushes
through the area, winds will become variable at all sites. Then
north to northwest winds at 10kts or less. So will think about
what is ours and what is the churches.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten







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