The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.
528 FXUS63 KILX 280039 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 639 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 639 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 Made some quick updates to the forecast this evening, mainly to better reflect current and expected sky trends. 00z/6pm IR satellite imagery shows cloud cover steadily eroding from the E/NE, with mostly clear skies currently noted along/northeast of a Champaign to Paris line. Clouds are beginning to break up south of there along/south of the I-70 corridor as well. Based on satellite loops and the latest HRRR forecast, it appears skies will become partly to mostly clear across much of the KILX CWA tonight, except perhaps the far NW around Galesburg. Will continue to monitor trends to see if additional updates are needed, but for now will hold on to overcast conditions through the entire night northwest of the Peoria area with clearing skies elsewhere. Low temperatures will be coldest where clearing has already occurred across the NE CWA around Danville, where readings will dip into the teens. Lower to middle 20s seem reasonable across the rest of central Illinois. && .SHORT TERM...(Through Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT/NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WINDS AND TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW LOWER CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. BEST CHANCES FOR EROSION WILL BE FOR EASTERN AREAS WHERE THIS DRIER AIR IS MAKING BETTER HEADWAY. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE CLEARING MUCH SOONER THIS EVENING AREA-WIDE...WHILE RAP TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT FOR THIS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-72. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND THAT IT WILL AT LEAST HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL BE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AS WELL...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CLOUDS HANGING ON ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 51. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS MOVE EAST AND CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE EAST IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20...WITH 20S HOLDING WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT. THURSDAY...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS RIDGE WHILE ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEM .IT APPEARS THAT NOT ALL OF OF THIS LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL NOT TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE WITH A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION HOLDING...BUT DO EXPECT SOME WARMING FROM TODAY`S READINGS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE MID 40S LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET. AREAS NORTH AND EAST WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE STRUGGLING TO REACH 40. AHEAD OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF 1005 MB COMBINES WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH TO CREATE A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE. KMD && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A WINDY AND MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN ADVANCING LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID TO HIGH TEENS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SOME IN THE EVENING BUT THEN ARE LIKELY TO SLOWLY RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A DECENT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DRY WITH EXCEPTION OF ECMWF AND NAM. MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED TO ADD DRIZZLE TO GRIDS. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...AND COLD ADVECTION RAMPING UP BEHIND IT. HAVE LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING...BUT ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT RAIN DESPITE COLD ADVECTION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULDNT COOL QUICK ENOUGH FROM EARLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST FAR SOUTHEAST. BIGGER STORY WILL BE STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY EARLY FRIDAY...RECOVERING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LOW-MID 30S UNDER LARGE CANADIAN HIGH. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... ATTENTION TURNS TO EJECTION OF CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER OR MID MS VALLEY THEN OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH IT BEING STILL OVER 100 HRS OUT...GUIDANCE VARIES ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW...BUT DECENT AGREEMENT IN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...BUT FARTHER NORTHWEST/STRONGER LOW COULD INTRODUCE P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THIS PERIOD BEARS WATCHING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON INTENSITY OF A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PIECE OF POLAR VORTEX ROTATES SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC BLAST MAY BE DIRECTED FARTHER EAST...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. RC && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 Main aviation challenges are the current MVFR ceilings and timing the clearing trend tonight. Latest satellite imagery continues to show the cloud cover eroding from the E/NE, with mostly clear skies now being reported along/northeast of a KCMI to KPRG line. HRRR suggests the clouds will continue to slowly dissipate over the next several hours, with clear skies across the board by shortly after midnight. Based on satellite trends and HRRR, have removed the ceiling from KCMI by 01z, then further west to KPIA by around 07z. Winds will initially be quite light from the N/NE this evening, then will veer to E/SE overnight. As the pressure gradient tightens across the region, SE winds will increase markedly on Wednesday. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts in the 20 to 25kt range from late morning through the afternoon hours. Other than high/thin cirrus clouds, skies will be mostly clear through 00z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...kmd LONG TERM...RC AVIATION...Barnes