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772
FXUS61 KILN 230558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







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