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[Printable]
218
FXUS61 KILN 271144
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL BACK INTO THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY START AS A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH FURTHER WEST THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY
TRACK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPORARY BROKEN CONDITIONS AT KILN BUT
LEFT KDAY AND KCVG/KLUK SCATTERED. APPEARS THAT LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...







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