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523
FXUS61 KILN 012345
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A WARM THURSDAY.
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
MID LVL S/WV RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS OUR
EAST AND SOUTH WITH SOME GRADIENT EXPECTED FOR THE WEST. SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO ENCROACH THE WESTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...BELIEVE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE COOLER LOCATIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

MID LEVEL S/WV RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. MODELS SUGGEST THAT DISTURBED ENERGY
WITHIN THE BACK SIDE FLOW OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP PCPN
THREAT TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD
JUST SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...S/WV ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
EJECTED QUICKLY NE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A LARGE SCALE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOIST ASCENT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACHING S/WV WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF THE ELEVATED VARIETY.

ON FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. A SECOND WAVE OF PCPN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WHILE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. GIVEN MODERATE BULK SHEAR...THE PROSPECTS OF MLCAPES
AROUND 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 40 AND
50 KNOTS...LOW LCLS...MID LEVEL JET BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KNOTS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG...PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TYPE
OF SETUP THAT COULD RESULT IN A LOW THREAT OF SPIN UP TORNADOES IF
THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL MENTION THE THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE OUT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES FOR NOW
UNTIL AND IF IT BECOMES CLEARER THAT THIS MAY BE SOMETHING OF
CONCERN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO BRING A DECENT
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. SO...ALTHOUGH
PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND SOME
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FLOOD SUBDUED.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AS A LARGE SCALE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. PCPN
SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MILD READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HOLD VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. THE CAA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE ONGOING ON SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BASE
OF A 500MB TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL HELP LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENTS IN RH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AS SOME OF THIS MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
ILN CWA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIQUID...THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY
START THE DAY NEAR 40 DEGREES.

AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THE REGION
WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS AFTER SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DRY...CONFIDENCE
DECREASES IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. GFSE PLOTS SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF SPREAD IN TROUGH
PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE...AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IS
ONLY DECENT AT BEST. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE THAN OTHER TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND THIS
HAS BEEN REFINED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA AND TAF SITES TONIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHER CLOUDS TO STREAM IN AT OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. KLUK MAY
SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AND LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH
A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW BUT BE UNDER 10KT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTS WEST OF KILN THAT COULD BE IN THE 15KT
RANGE. STRATUS DECK AOA 5-6KFT COULD BECOME CUMULUS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND THEN BREAK UP LATE IN THE DAY. CI SHOULD BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 8-10KT
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS








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