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[Printable]
817
FXUS62 KILM 262347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE MODEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE SHOWS SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST OF NJ CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OF THE NC COAST SO STILL NOT SURE SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE
NORTH OF THE AREA AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 5H
TROUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MID LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL
ADVECT IN PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS
CAA OFFSETS ANY SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS
BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS
2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS
THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS
FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS
MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT
AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS
LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST
SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN
BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT SKIRTS
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND
DILLON TO NEAR WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW AND POINTS N...DESPITE THE VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 10 KFT. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND MEASURABLE
RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. SUNSHINE ON THU SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A FLO TO
MYR LINE WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT.

COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB
DROPPING TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 DEG FRI MORNING AND THIS CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN
INCH...SO NO RISK FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEYOND THU AND IN
FACT IT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF NOV. HIGHS ON THU
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH ONLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED ON FRI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THU
NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MID 20S MAY OCCUR IN WIND PROTECTED COLD SPOTS.
LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW LOWER
20S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND/PATTERN CHANGE THE HEADLINES. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
WILL START OUT DUE ZONAL...500MB HEIGHTS WEST TO EAST ARE ALL BUT
FLAT INITIALLY AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THAT
BRIEFLY SERVES TO TEMPER THE WARMUP NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAY WITH THE BRIEF SETBACK TUESDAY. A
QUICK RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AS THE CATALYST AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PLAY A FACTOR
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR STRATOCU CONTINUES TO THIN THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AROUND 02-03Z...WITH KILM LIKELY THE LAST TAF SITE TO LOSE
ITS MVFR CIGS. GRADUAL CLEARING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM/LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT COULD SUPPORT PATCHY MVFR BR...AS THE GROUND IS STILL
MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS BUT
MOVED UP THE TIMING BY SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CHANGES
IN WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THU
WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS...SO ANY VSBY
ISSUES WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z. THE LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE VFR AS GUSTY
W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST HAS RESULTING IN
WINDS BACKING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME WESTERLY. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST OBS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SO HAVE ELECTED TO
CANCEL THE SCA A BIT EARLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS:SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4
FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING
AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT.

WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING
THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS
WILL KICK SEAS BACK UP NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS DURING AND JUST
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT THU AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT
REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO
FRI. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE THINKING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ON THU AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AND FAVORABLE
FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF TEN KNOTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE...CENTERED
EAST TO WEST BASICALLY OVERHEAD. THIS WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS
TO SEAS OF 1-3 FEET MAINLY OF SHORTER PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR






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