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847
FXUS63 KICT 290916
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMER. LOWS
ARE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BUT STILL BREEZY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT AND POSSIBLY RECORD WARM DAY ACROSS KANSAS WITH
60S AND 70S EXPECTED. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

THINGS CHANGE ON SUNDAY WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A EARLY DAYTIME HIGH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE HIGHER-RES NAM SIGNALS AT
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WHILE THE LOWER-RES GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE SIGNALS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY WILL BE COLD...RELATIVE TO THE TODAY(SATURDAY). HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS WILL BE STILL BE BREEZY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK...BACK TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPANCIES ABOUT HOW WARM/COLD THE
AIRMASS WILL BE BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE. THUS HAVE RAIN DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. THIS PERIOD WILL
BE ONE TO WATCH AS THE PERIOD NEARS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 0.5 KM WILL ALLOW CONTINUED SHALLOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT
FROM EASTERN TX AND EASTERN OK UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS...THAT
PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CNU TERMINAL MAY BE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THIS STRATUS DECK BASED ON THE SFC-0.5KM FLOW...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BEING HINDERED SLIGHTLY BY
EXTENSIVE CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
MENTION OF BROKEN IFR CEILINGS AT CNU EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE LESS PESSIMISTIC.

MIXING DEPTH SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD MIDDAY ALLOWING THE STRATUS
TO DISSIPATE. IN ADDITION...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AT CNU...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
LESSER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MAINLY SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

JMC


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 29TH
WICHITA.....76 DEGREES IN 1933
RUSSELL.....68 DEGREES IN 2003
SALINA......71 DEGREES IN 1998
CHANUTE.....78 DEGREES IN 1933

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  36  47  17 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      70  35  42  15 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          68  35  43  16 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  40  48  18 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  41  53  19 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  33  36  12 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      73  34  39  12 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          70  33  38  16 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  33  40  15 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  49  61  23 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         70  47  56  20 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            69  46  54  19 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  49  58  21 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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