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006
FXUS66 KHNX 231040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TODAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND AND INCREASED WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WV/IR INDICATING A FAST QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FETCH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN ALL THE WAY INTO THE PAC NW AND NORCAL. HOWEVER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING THIS MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR CWFA AND
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTICED OVER CENTRAL CA. THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A CONTINUATION
OF THE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY. 06Z WRF INDICATING AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST NEAR 135W ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMING
ACROSS OUR CWFA AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE WITH WAA
TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA
WITH A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND KERN COUNTY DESERTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWFA...BUT A CHANCE OF RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH AND PUSHES ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 9000 FEET OVER YOSEMITE PARK SATRUDAY
AFTERNOON LOWERING TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ABOVE 9000 FEET IN AND AROUND YOSEMITE PARK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
CENTRAL CA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WEEKEND TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OFF THE CA COAST. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A RETURN TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z AND 06Z
GFS AS WELL AS THE 00Z HOLD THE RIDGE INTACT OVER CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD AND MOIST UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO CA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AND THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) IS INDICATING VERY A LOW CONFIDENCE OUTLOOK
FOR NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE LACK OF ENSEMBLE MEMBER CONSENSUS. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE MODEL RUN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS VERY LOW. OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS NO STRONG
MODEL AGREEMENT IN A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE OVER OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956
KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971

KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




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