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064
FXUS66 KHNX 012135
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
235 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEK WHILE A DRY...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST...STRATUS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A 1500-
FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER EXTENDING SOUTH FROM MONTEREY BAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT
ONLY A FEW DEGREES ON THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR. THIS TREND WAS
CARRIED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS OR MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING RELIABLE MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WAS BUILDING
INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION/S WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

THE 12Z NAM-12 KEEPS 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ABOVE 5820 METERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF LOWER
THE 5820-METER THICKNESS LINE TO NORTHERN KERN COUNTY BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY /1700 PDT TUESDAY/. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING IS MEDIUM AT BEST...AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INDICATE
A STRONGER RIDGE THAN HAD BEEN FORECAST. WITH A MORE ROBUST RIDGE...
THIS NEXT TROUGH MAY EITHER BE LATER IN ARRIVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA OR MIGHT NOT DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS CURRENT MODEL RUNS
FORECAST.

THE NAM-12 FORECASTS MID-LEVEL /700-500-MB/ MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM-
12 HAS SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 500 JOULES/KG OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY BY 21Z /1400 PDT/...BUT CAPES ARE ALREADY
DECREASING BY THE TIME THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATION ARRIVES.
SURFACE-COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY ARE AS
LOW AS -2 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE FORECAST TO TURN POSITIVE
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THESE PARAMETERS...CONFIDENCE IN
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE
GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW AS THE NEXT MODEL RUNS COULD BE MORE
UNSTABLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MODELS FORECAST A NEARLY STATIC PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...WITH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THERE
WILL BE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE RIDGE TO DISPLACE THE TROUGH NORTHWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT MONDAY...DIGGING THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
AGAIN AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-01      107:1888     73:1964     76:2007     51:1964
KFAT 09-02      108:1955     76:2000     77:1998     48:1964
KFAT 09-03      111:1955     71:1912     77:2003     52:1964

KBFL 09-01      107:1902     74:1964     79:2007     53:1901
KBFL 09-02      110:1955     77:1946     78:1998     50:1913
KBFL 09-03      112:1955     78:1985     78:1998     50:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




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