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[Printable]
402
FXUS64 KHGX 310531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
AGAIN LOOKING AT A GOOD 12 HRS OF VFR CIGS UNTIL LOW STRATOCU
DEVELOPS WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP OVER MUCH OF SE
TX. THINK PREVIOUS TAF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AND THEN LOWERING FROM THERE.
SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT BUT LIFT MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR -RA TO DEVELOP. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR WITH ONSET OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/NAM SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH THE GFS STILL A TOUCH FASTER WITH MVFR CIGS. GIVEN E/ESE WIND
DIRECTION AT KGLS...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERING VISBY AFTER 00Z TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...COOL AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. MADE A FEW CORRECTIONS TO THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
OVERALL EXPECT VFR CIGS THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. GFS/NAM BRING BACK
CIGS AROUND 12Z BUT THINK MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SLOWER DUE TO
MIXING WITH DRY AIR. DO BRING IN MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AROUND 20-22Z. CIGS DROP AFTER THAT FOR THE 30HR KIAH TAF. HAVE
MVFR WITH TRANSITION TO IFR AS -RA STARTS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ABOUT THE TIME A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS TX AND THEN PHASES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS. BULK OF RAIN AND
LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  62  55  65  36 /  10  40  70  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              45  64  55  69  40 /  10  10  50  80  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  62  55  64  44 /  10  10  40  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




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