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[Printable]
581
FXUS64 KHGX 310503
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THE FIRST THIRD OF THE PERIOD...POST-
SUNRISE MIX DOWN WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST NORTHERLIES OCCURRING AT
OR JUST AFTER 15Z. MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COMING HOURS OVER
KCLL...BUT PRIMARILY A DRY FROPA WITH A FEW-SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD
DECK. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...
AND THE CURRENT 20% POPS FOR THAT AREA LOOK GOOD.  42

MARINE...
WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...HAVE HOISTED CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL WATER
BEGINNING AT 10 AM TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT...ADVISORY
FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A TIGHT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...IN
TANDEM WITH A BACKING COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS...WILL STRENGTHEN
DAYTIME SURFACE NORTHERLIES TO 15G25KTS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LOWS THIS WEEKEND WILL
DIP INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND AREAS...WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNINGS SINCE MID MAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME LATE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. 38

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCEC/SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS TIME FOR 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 7
FEET. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL
RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAD BEEN QUITE
DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS FASTER
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL SLOWER. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  73  42  65  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  75  45  68  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  56 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42




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