[Printable]
Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here
000 FXUS64 KHGX 262327 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 527 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/ DISCUSSION... HAPPY THANKSGIVING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. RIDGE OVER SETX HAS MADE FOR A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE THANKSGIVING. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL COME TO AN END AS WINDS RELAX AND TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. CIRRUS SPREADING OUT OVER TX AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SETX AS UPPER CIRC OVER BAJA MOVES EAST AND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE CIRCULATION CROSSES THE AREA ANTICIPATING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. LL FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND PICKING UP. AREA MOISTENS UP SATURDAY AND WITH RELISH ON SUNDAY AS LL FLOW TIGHTENS UP. THE UPPER LOW NEARING THE OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON- TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHES THE COAST MONDAY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN OUT OFFSHORE BEFORE NOON. WIDESPREAD RA/SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST AS MOIST SW FLOW OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH LOOKING LIKELY AND MAY HAVE SOME THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH YET TO MENTION IN ZFP. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE SWINGS EAST AND IN ITS WAKE BRING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE RAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND GETS CLOSER TO SETX. THIS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING BACK HIGH POPS WITH MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLY TSRA IF INSTABILITY PANS OUT THAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGING. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS TO CONTINUE TO NUDGE UP POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS AND ALSO TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CAA WILL LIKELY MEAN A FLATLINE FOR TEMPS ON TUESDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE BY 3-6 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WANTED TO GO BIGGER BUT IF THE RAINS DON`T MATERIALIZE AS CURRENT MODELS PROGGING THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE ON TUESDAY COULD WELL HELP TO FUEL HEAVIER RAINS AGAIN. OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RULE OUT ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES THOUGH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL OCCUR. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 39 67 49 73 60 / 0 0 10 10 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 40 67 50 72 61 / 0 0 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 51 66 58 71 66 / 0 0 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40