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038
FXUS64 KHGX 021129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




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