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[Printable]
946
FXUS61 KGYX 231504
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---1500Z UPDATE---
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO RETURNED AS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

---1245Z UPDATE---
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER LEVE INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK IN BY LATE MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING THOUGH
MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THESE ISSUES.

622 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT BOTH
RADAR AND MESONET TRENDS.


AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE
BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY
LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE
COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND
FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH
OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED
UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER
DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS,
CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION,
THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C
/ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF
APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR
IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC
WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT.

LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+
KT GUSTS.

LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL







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