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[Printable]
169
FXUS61 KGYX 170131
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
931 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE AND INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN LITTLE
OR NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TNGT WITH LGT WINDS...EXCEPT A NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE NGT ALONG THE COAST...IN PART
DUE TO A LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE COLDER LAND AND THE
WARMER OCEAN. SKIES WILL BE CLR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE RECORD LOWS ARE 18F SET IN
1908 AT CONCORD AND 24F SET IN 2003 AT PORTLAND FOR APRIL 17TH...
AND BOTH ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL ONLY REBOUND TO THE 40S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE WE`LL SEE THE ICEBOX DOOR
OPEN...WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE BREEZE OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN
FURTHER LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH IN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY...A COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST RATHER
COOL. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT ADDING AND DRIZZLE/FOG ALTHOUGH THESE
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING JUST A CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP IN MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR THRU THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY WILL CONT
THURSDAY NGT AND THIS MAY GRADUALLY BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST FOR COASTAL TAF SITES...AND
PERHAPS INLAND TO CON AND AUG.


LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE`S A CHANCE OF SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST. ALREADY DROPPED THE SCA FOR CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAYS
AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS
STILL AT MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS SO WILL KEEP THE
SCA GOING THERE. HOWEVER... THAT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED LATER
TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE COLD NW FLOW, THOUGH, MAY
KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SEAS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLD BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO OFFSHORE
WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING OFF. QUIET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE WATERS.


LONG TERM...SEAS COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS.
THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$






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