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455
FXUS61 KGYX 310109
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
909 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
---900PM UPDATE---
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.

---640PM UPDATE---
RATHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
INTERMITTANT CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST BY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST THEM FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../
3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT
DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN
THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL
KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS
APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT
THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND
THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT
WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH
THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND
SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE
COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW
CLOUDS/-RA/DZ.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO
SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT.

LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER
GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB
TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL




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