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411
FXUS63 KGRR 011147
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING MILDER SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO DEVELOP BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WE COOL
BACK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM AS SFC RIDGE DOMINATES. WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
OPTIMIZED AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
20S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS WILL BE DOWN
INTO THE TEENS.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
BE WELL WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND JUST ENTERING WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED FOR
THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. ONE WILL COME THROUGH DURING THE MON NIGHT
AND TUE TIME FRAME...AND THE OTHER WILL BE DURING THE LATE WED INTO
THU TIME FRAME.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE FIRST SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE
WILL BE THE WETTEST SYSTEM OF THE LONG TERM. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COAST WILL
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND INTO MON OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP TO PRODUCE A
NICE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM BEING TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE A SHORT RESPITE IN THE RAIN FROM LATER TUE THROUGH MOST
OF WED BEFORE RAIN MOVES BACK IN LATE WED. A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
OF 150+ KNOTS WILL ZIP IN FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
DIG A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATER WED THROUGH THU. WE WILL SEE RAIN
CHCS INCREASE LATER ON WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE
SFC FRONT. WE WILL THEN SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THU
WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER COLD POOL OVERHEAD.

DRIER WX AND MODERATING TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED FLOW IN PLACE...IT IS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG JET IN PLACE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRI GIVING THE AREA THE DRY WX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

CLOUDS STREAMING OFF LAKE HURON WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO SOME
OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FROM LAN TO AZO AND TO JXN
THIS MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY 18Z.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO BE
AOB 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SO WE WILL REPLACE THE GALE WARNING
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH 6 PM. EXPECT A
LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WAVES BUILDING
OVER 4 FEET BY MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO







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