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920
FXUS63 KGRR 221144
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
744 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF
THE NEXT 5 DAYS SHOULD BE DRY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
60S SHOULD BE ACHIEVED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. WE COULD PUSH TOWARDS 70 DEGREES NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY AND RATHER BENIGN AUTUMN WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.

REGARDING CLOUDS...STRATOCUMULUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CWA FROM THE
EAST IN A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA T/S OFF OF LAKE
HURON ON IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS C...WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR LAKE CLOUDS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR THEY PUSH INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND HOW PREVALENT THEY BECOME THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING GRAND RAPIDS AND KALAMAZOO. AFTER
SUNRISE THOUGH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN EROSION TO THE CLOUDS DUE TO
MIXING AND THE FACT THAT RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER WITH
TIME. SKIES WILL VARY FROM MAINLY CLEAR TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AT
DAYBREAK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG U.S. 127. THE TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
STRATOCU ERODES. LOCATIONS TOWARDS KJXN SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.

CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THE BULK OF ANY
LIGHT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRI. HAVE 30/40 PCT CHANCES
IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING...TAPERING TO 20 PCT OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THINKING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING TO SPRINKLES THEN ENDING. SKIES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WX FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH DRY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE WX PATTERN AND
PRODUCE FAIR WX SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD REACH THE 60S.

MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MILDEST DAY AS STRONG SW FLOW WAA DEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP TO BOOST
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO NUDGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ORIGINS OFF OF LAKE HURON. FEEL THE MAXIMUM EXTENT TO THE
WEST WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING A
PUSH INTO KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KLAN
AND KJXN THE MOST WITH CEILINGS HANGING ON POSSIBLY INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS. BY 18Z OR SO...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS
THE CEILINGS GRADUALLY ERODE. VFR WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KNOTS THE ENTIRE TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WE LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 200 AM...AS THE FLOW HAS
SHIFTED OFF SHORE...OUT OF THE EAST. NEARSHORE WAVE BUOYS AT
LUDINGTON AND PORT SHELDON CONFIRM CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET AT 200 AM.

FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
COME UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WE MAY SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THURSDAY EVENING NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO ROLL WITH A HEADLINE...GIVEN THE
BRIEF PERIOD (21Z THURS - 05Z FRI) AND THE FACT THAT WAVES ONLY LOOK
TO REACH THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH RIVERS CURRENTLY AT LOW FLOWS
AND LITTLE IF ANY RAIN FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE







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