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805
FXUS63 KGRB 251723
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET AND PLEASANT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONLY FCST ISSUE
BEING THE TIMING OF SOME CLOUDS SUNDAY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOURED
OUT BY SUNRISE AS DRY AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND AN EXITING 850MB FRONT.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE THEME OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE STATE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TODAY...AS DEEP MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WONT BE BITTERLY COLD AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED RIDGING
ALOFT. THE DAY SHOULD START SUNNY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
START MOVING IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN QUICKLY RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER ANY
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING DRAMATICALLY. OTHER THAN
SOME CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT FALL DAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...NAMELY THE CYCLONE THAT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  BOTH THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE STRONGER WITH THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH THE
FORMER CRANK OUT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW.  PREFER THE WEAKER AND MORE
CONSISTENT SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF.  ADDITIONALLY...THE 00Z GFS HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT
QUIET WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN.  BUT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A 850MB WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z AND OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE GFS IS
INDICATING AROUND 600 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE RIGHT ALONG THE 850MB
WARM FRONT.  SO AGREE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.  SHOULD SEE
THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP END MONDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK OCCURRING
DURING THE DAY.  BUT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STALLING OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST BENEATH THE INVERSION.  SO
EXPECT A PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS AND IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
DRIZZLE DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN HIGHLANDS.
HIGH TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT TO PROJECT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSITION
OF THE WARM FRONT.  WILL DROP TEMPS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THE WARM WILL REACH THAT FAR NORTH.  EAST-CENTRAL
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING TOASTY TEMPS.  THEN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  EXPECT ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL FGEN INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO WESTERLY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH TRAILING MOISTURE ALOFT FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  THEN A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT COULD
PROVIDE LIGHT PRECIP (LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH?).  HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.  TEMPS TO BECOME CHILLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY...COUPLED WITH AN AREA
OF HI PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WL CONT TO BRING GUSTY W-NW WINDS
TO ALL OF NE WI THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW PRES CONTS TO
PULL AWAY AND THE HI PRES APPROACHES THE UPR MS VALLEY...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STEADILY DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED
LLWS TO ALL OUR TAF SITES THRU ROUGHLY 09Z TNGT AS WINDS JUST OFF
THE SFC COULD STILL GUST IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. THE WINDS ON SUNDAY
WL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...S-SE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HI DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK







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