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067
FXUS63 KGLD 011758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. A LOT OF THINGS GOING ON. FIRST
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. NUMEROUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE
AND TRENDS WERE SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE GOING TO BE COOLER
THAN EXPECTED. SO USING THE LATEST TRENDS AND BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...LOWERED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT LAPSE RATES ALOFT. AT THE SAME
TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
THE UPPER JET IS MOVING THROUGH. SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LOOKING
OUT THE WINDOW SHOW THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BECAUSE
OF ALL THIS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL WE START TO STABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF...AND INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SHOW THAT BLOWING SNOW IS OCCURRING NEAR
AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. ONLY ABOUT AN INCH TO
MAYBE AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW OUT THERE BUT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH CAUSING SPOTTY BLOWING SNOW. SO INSERTED
PATCHY BLOWING IN THE SNOW FIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WAS A LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS.  AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW
HAD ENDED OR WAS COMING TO AN END AND NORTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
ALMOST 40 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MORE AS THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY.

THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL HIT BOTTOM THEN BEGIN TO WARM AS WAA
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE DAY WILL BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY RECORDS.

A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN
THE AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ALSO PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MAXIMUM OF 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW THAT WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION
AS IT IS ALSO FLATTENED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DIRTY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

FOR KGLD...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
AND PERIODIC FLURRIES TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 37 KNOTS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER THAT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...SPORADIC AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE SUN GOES DONE. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...BULLER




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