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800
FXUS65 KGJT 241146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
546 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER UTAH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST. EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE SUNNY AND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER.

TONIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER BUT WARM ADVECTION LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SW WINDS STRENGTHEN
AS THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN UINTA MTNS BUT OTHERWISE SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 0.5 INCHES. COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT ON SATURDAY BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO TIMBERLINE.

PROMINENT AMPLIFIED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...WELL
MAYBE. MODELS STILL SHOW A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...PROBABLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
NOT WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR (IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA)...BUT HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA.  DIGGING SYSTEMS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OR FOUR CORNERS AREA TYPICALLY MOVE SLOWER THAN WHAT
MODELS INDICATE...BUT INSTEAD THEY SHOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACCELERATING ACROSS THE AREA (WHICH LIMITS THE RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL). WITH QG DIAGNOSTICS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYERED
LIFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AS THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS NEAR SWRN COLORADO. BUT TOUGH TO QUANTIFY RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN NW FLOW WILL AFFECT NW
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NWRN SAN
JUANS. SLOW AND STEADY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE PARK/GORE
RANGES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DIMINISHED THREAT OF PCPN BUT COOL
WEATHER OR A SLOW WARMING TREND PREVAILS AS NORTH FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN COLORADO ZONES 290 AND 292. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF RH VALUES WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWEST RH
VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE PARADOX VALLEY/ ZONE 290 WHILE THE MONTROSE
AREA / ZONE 292 MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DRY. SO A FIRE WX WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ205.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




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