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312
FXUS65 KGJT 222053
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
253 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS BUT AT FIRST THEY WILL BE PRETTY THIN. DROPPED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN OVER THE NORTH...WHILE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO
A MINIMUM. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH FOR LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...BUT
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY. ECMWF STILL STRONGER
WITH A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH FOR A SHOWERY PERIOD...WHILE THE
WEAKER SOLUTIONS MIGHT JUST BE A QUICK BAND OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN
LESS IN THE SOUTH. STRONGER SOLUTIONS COULD BRING THE SHOWERS AND
COLD AIR TOGETHER ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
MARGINAL SO IMPACT WOULD BE LESSENED. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THIS PERIOD...BUT AGAIN
MAYBE LESS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS FINE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AFTER A WARM WEEKEND. THEN DRY AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT
NOT AS WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z...THEN ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...CMG/RTG/RJK




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