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498
FXUS65 KGGW 301023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
323 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TODAY WILL BE THE END OF THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE DAY BEGINS WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC LOW SPINNING
AROUND HUDSON BAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC LOW SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
LOCAL REGION AND THE BC DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AS A DEVELOPING A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE PICKED UP
BY THE DISTURBANCE OVERRUNS THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. AROUND 12Z THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NEMONT...AND THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SNOW WILL BE JUST MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA.

SATURDAY...THE DEEPENING LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA IN COINCIDENCE
WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS OVERRUNNING EVENT WILL
EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL QPF TOTALS HAVE NOT VARIED MUCH OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...BUT HAVE SHIFTED EAST A BIT. STORM TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN CONSISTENT ALSO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES...AND TAPER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MIGHT BE
WORTHY OF A HEADLINE AFTER ANOTHER REVIEW BY THE NEXT SHIFT. THE
BEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCED BY CAA. SO THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE ADDED PATCHY BLSN
IN AFTERNOON GRIDS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY CUT OFF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURES OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...DROPPING TO -19C TO -14C.
SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. AFTER A WEEK OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. BUT NEAR NORMAL IS WHAT
IS EXPECTED. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
HUDSON BAY LOW AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EAST AND SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW KNOCK IT BACK TO
THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE STATE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES SLIDE
ALONG THE LEE FRONT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW
AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THEN
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MIDLEVEL DRYING BETWEEN WAVES.
FLEXING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY TUESDAY THE CANADIAN
HIGH BEGINS PUSHING DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN MONTANA TO
ALLOW SNOW TO TAPER OFF AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE REBOUNDING OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND THE EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGGW OR KOLF
REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO RECENT RECORD SETTING WARM TEMPERATURES SOME OF THE CREEKS
AND SMALL STREAMS ARE RUNNING. SOME ARE RUNNING HIGH AND HAVE
OVERFLOWED THEIR BANKS. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING AT 7
MILE CREEK NEAR GLENDIVE. THERE IS A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TODAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER FLOODING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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