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304
FXUS65 KGGW 300953
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
353 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD BANK.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE POOR WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LOW LAPSE RATES...GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
WINDS ABOVE LAKE WIND CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.

RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST. PRELIMINARY WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA...EASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SENDING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AS
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AHEAD OF LOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. EBERT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
ENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT TO INITIATE A
PATTERN CHANGE. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS SUGGEST A WET AND COLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD ARCTIC AIR GETS WRAPPED IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 15F DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND
FURTHER ON MONDAY. READJUSTED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES NOW ARE SHOWING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AND MAY NEED A WATCH WHEN IT SHIFTS INTO THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NEMONT EASTERLY WIND WILL
BACK TO THE NORTH AND RAMP UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND
HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

SATELLITE IR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG/MIST...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THAT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WIND TODAY. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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