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078
FXUS65 KGGW 020900
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS EAST TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED UP OVER MONTANA TODAY AND
TONIGHT BY AN ENERGETIC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC-NW FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGING ACTION WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
DRIFT NORTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH INCREASING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BUMP UP CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD STABILIZE CONDITIONS FOR A DRY
DAY AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SENDS A DISTINCT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURE GO FROM 18C AT 12Z TO 4C
24 HOURS LATER. THIS STRONG TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE IS POSSIBLE. THE EARLY TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
MIGHT PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS PLACE THE BASE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH IN SASKATCHEWAN THAT
WILL RESULT IN MOST STRONG PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CAA WILL ALSO DROP LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL START TO THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 60S. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH SO LOOK FOR
DRY WEATHER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. THEN...
THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MONTANA NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT... GFS HAS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER MORE LONGWAVE LIKE TROUGH WITH
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS STARTING LATE MONDAY AND GOING INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...GOING WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER IN
VALLEY COUNTY.

ON THE MILK RIVER...THE LEVEL AT GLASGOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW
FALL...BUT NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW







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