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144
FXUS65 KGGW 281627
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
927 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...
INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AS THERE ARE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LOW STRATUS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL HOLD HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW
ACROSS SW PHILLIPS COUNTY. WINDS ARE LIGHT FOR RIGHT NOW BUT WANT
TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS VERTICAL MIXING MAXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL REASSESS THE THREAT. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTA PASSAGE ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. AGAIN...WILL ASSESS
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER DIGESTING 12Z GUIDANCE IN DETAIL. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY (3 AM) SITS NEAR ZORTMAN... JORDAN AND
GLENDIVE. THE FRONT SEPARATES TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH FROM 40S IN THE SOUTH. WITH QUASI- STATIONARY FLOW ALOFT...
THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS US 2 AS A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. AT THE SAME
TIME... MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER TODAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH
THE TYPE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES. STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN IN THE LITTLE ROCKIES OF SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY AT
TIMES TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVE TO THE
EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO MONTANA AND SOMEWHAT
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES RISES AND
THEY MAY FALL AT TIMES INSTEAD. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH... ANY SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES WILL BLOW AND DRIFT AND WIND
CHILLS WILL FALL TO 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW DURING THE DAY. EITHER A
WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET AS THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SNOWFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING
THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH. HOW COLD TEMPERATURES FALL WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH THE SKY CLEARS. AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE MODELS WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING TO CLEAR THE SKIES. THE BITTER COLD AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE WARMING
AS FLOW TURNS FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE PACIFIC. REASONABLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINNING TO EDGE EASTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND SLIGHT RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM
DRY AIR ACROSS THE DIVIDE UNTIL A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE BRINGS A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE WAVE
MOVES EAST.

RIDGE BEGINS TO REBOUND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AIRMASS WARMING. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT AGREEING WITH
TIMING OR TRACK. HOWEVER THEY ARE AGREEING ON KEEPING THE REGION
DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE DOMINATING. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG
TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KGGW AND KOLF EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY TO BRING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION... FOLLOWED BY SNOW. EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15KT TO 25 KTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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