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711
FXUS65 KGGW 241035
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
335 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LIES
OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE AIRMASS/ EXTENT OF INFLUENCE
HOWEVER DRAPES FARTHER SOUTH... WITH A TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS... CENTRAL US PLAINS... AND UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE RIDGE OF WARM AIR LIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND RUNS OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA... THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.. AND TERMINATES NEAR SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS STUCK IN A WEAK GRADIENT OF NORTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGER FEATURES.

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A MESO RIDGE/TROUGH COMBO EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL FIRST BRING DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GO MUCH ABOVE ONE INCH WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING.
MEANWHILE... A PACIFIC MOISTURE INFUSION WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
SPREAD OUT ALONG THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT. AND BEGIN TO REACH
CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY MID DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL RUMMAGE DOWN THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND SHARPEN INTO A BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT AND OVERRUN THIS FRONT BY THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH COULD QUICKLY
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY SNOW TOTALS ARE STILL SHIFTING ABOUT... BUT 2
TO 4 INCHES SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR ISOLATED LOCATION IN GARFIELD... PETROLEUM...
AND SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES. WHILE WARM MID LEVEL PUSH IS
EXPECTED.... TEMPERATURES DO YET NOT REACH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
IN PROFILE SOUNDINGS BY WEDNESDAY. GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK
EXPECTED TO TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF WARMING CHINOOK BEFORE ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS CLIPS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH PACIFIC RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AND MOVING
EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST AND SPREADS WARM AIR ACROSS
THE DIVIDE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING EAST...EXPECT A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.

WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED EAST-WEST NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
ALSO ON FRIDAY THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS
TURN TO THE EAST...SENDING A CLIPPER TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT PULLING MUCH
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE STATE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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