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647
FXUS65 KGGW 210249
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE... INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS AROUND GLASGOW AND FORT PECK FOR
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH UPPER RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL WARM TEMPS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL PLACE THE THE WARMEST AIR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
AT THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A NARROW RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE MONTANA. THEN THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE WAVE SPLITS ITS
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF NEMONT SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW. BUT THIS
WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT A GENERAL COOLING. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
WIND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE
PACIFIC JET STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE LEFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS/CHINOOK ARCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FLOW REMAINING NORTH
OF THE BORDER AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON SATURDAY WITH TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO INCREASED IN RESPONSE. UPPER
WAVE LIFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NIGHT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS: SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR KGGW BUT IS TOO LOW TO PLACE
DIRECTLY IN THE TAF ITSELF.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... INCREASING TO 5
TO 15 KTS AND SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUN UP... THEN
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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