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172
FXUS65 KGGW 260152
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
752 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOUTHEAST WIND IS AVERAGING AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE FACE OF
THE FORT PECK DAM AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS CAUSING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING WHERE THE WIND WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO THE WEST WHERE LAKE WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
MET...HOWEVER OPTED TO LINK THE TWO ADVISORIES TO AVOID CONFUSION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS GOING AS PLANNED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING FOR NO OTHER UPDATES. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
INCREASING FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WELL AS
MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
WESTERLIES AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY MINIMAL
AS DRY SLOTTING KEEPS NORTHEAST MONTANA DRY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHILE
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AS A SECOND COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL LIE WEST OF A GLASGOW TO JORDAN LINE.
SOME SNOW MAY BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -2C. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL CONTINUE GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST...AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION NON
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

GIVEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GILCHRIST


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...


AFTERNOON UPDATE... MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IS SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES END TO
AMONGST MULTIPLE MODELS WITH JUST MESOSCALE DETAILS OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH
COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER AIR TO SOUTHWEST. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FOR A SHORTWAVE TO GET WRAPPED IN THE FLOW WITH
TIMING AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LACKING WITH THIS PASSAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... RESOLUTION AMONG MODELS
IMPROVED AT THIS TIME WITH A STRONG RIDGE STANDING PROMINENT
AMONGST MULTIPLE MODELS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND
BRING ABOVE SEASON TEMPERATURES FOR A SHORT TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MODELS POINTING TOWARDS A RAPID BREAKDOWN
OF THE RIDGE ND INCOMING TROUGH. EXPECTED UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
HERE ON.   GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY
OUT OF OUR CWA...LEAVING A FEW TRAILING AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ARE BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOWFALL...BUT SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH AND MAY BE MORE INDICATIVE OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX. ALTHOUGH
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT
SNOW COULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY. AS THE GROUND HAS NOT HAD A
CHANCE TO FREE AND STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. MAYBE A TRACE TO LESS THAN 0.25
INCH.

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
WILL LIKELY ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THAW AGAIN AND PRECIP TO
BE DRIVEN AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THIS SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD IS WHEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY AND LEAST CONFIDENCE.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN EMBEDDED SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT MAINLY IN SOME CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL
NOT VERY BULLISH ON MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA ALLOWING
A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND FURTHER TO THE WEST LATE IN THE MORNING.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






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