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339
FXUS64 KFWD 212319 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LIGHT FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. IN
THE METROPLEX...VISIBILITIES OF 5-6SM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT
12-15Z. FOR WACO...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1-3SM
BETWEEN 10-15Z.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT...THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO/MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY MIDWEEK
AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE CANADIAN AND NAM DO NOT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
LOW POPS IN FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FOR THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS WELL AS LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  80  62  79  60 /   5   0  10  20  10
WACO, TX              57  81  57  80  57 /   5   0   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  79  56  74  54 /   5   0  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            56  81  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  56  77  55 /   5   0  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            61  81  62  77  61 /   5   0  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  57  77  57 /   5   0  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         60  81  59  78  59 /   5   0   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            57  81  57  80  58 /   5   0   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  82  58  80  56 /   5   5  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






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