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[Printable]
610
FXUS63 KFSD 232339
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
639 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VORTICITY LOBE PRESENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AS EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATER TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AND
LOWER NORTHWESTERN IOWA ZONES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE BETTER
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES HOVERING
AROUND 500 J/KG...SO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. DO
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO FALL OFF IN OUR WEST TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING OVER THAT AREA INTRODUCED
PATCHY FOG OVER THERE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY THE VORT LOBE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH THIS AND WARMING PROFILES IT WILL
BE A MUCH NICER DAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE EAST TO AROUND 80
IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WIND...LIKELY BECOMING A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY. BOTH DAYS...FRIDAY
BEING A BIT WARMER...WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. FAR ENOUGH OUT THE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
SMALL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A CHANCE THAT THE WAVE COULD WRAP UP TO THE
WEST AND PUSH NORTHWARD. BEYOND THIS SMALL CHANCE A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL KEEP ALMOST SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT THIS RIDGE LOOKS A BIT LIKE
THE ONE THAT SET UP CAMP FOR A MONTH OR SO BACK IN MARCH OF 2012. IF
THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH IS SLOWER TO EJECT OR EJECTS IN MORE OF A
NORTHWARD FASHION AROUND THE PERIFERY OF THE HUGE RIDGE WE COULD SEE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR NOW THE
ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO BERAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ONE CLUSTER OF TSRA EAST/SOUTHEAST OF FSD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. THE OTHER AREA OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL IT DEVELOP VERY FAR TOP THE NORTH. WILL INCLUDE
MENTION IN KSUX BUT AT THIS TIME NOT AT KFSD...WILL MONITOR.
OTHERWISE VFR OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA WITH MVFR
CEILINGS OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST SD WILL CONTINUE. EVENTUALLY AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN STRATUS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
EAST AND IFR IN FOG WILL DEVELOP WEST AND MAXIMIZE 09Z-14Z. AFTER
14Z STEADY IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST TO VFR 14Z-20Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...




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