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257
FXUS65 KFGZ 290409
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
ARIZONA BORDER HELPED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
UP INTO THE UTAH BORDER REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
ARIZONA.

ON TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION STRADDLING THE MEXICAN BORDER. THE POSITION OF THIS
RIDGE IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TAPPING INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
WE NEED TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL INSTEAD MOVE INTO
ARIZONA FROM THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN LOWER STORM ACTIVITY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS IN OUR LONG RANGE MODELS THAT
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTATION. THIS CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS FAVORABLE
FOR A DEEPER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
POTENTIALLY A RETURN TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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