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463
FXUS65 KFGZ 191031
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY.  BY SUNDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDY AND
MILD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE...AND ALSO SOUTHEAST AZ. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD...COMBINING WITH MODEST DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. BY MONDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY... DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SLOWLY WARMING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER AZ. -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING AFT 18Z.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. PERIODIC
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...WITH OTHERWISE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS. SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFT 03Z SUN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMER WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NORTHERN AZ. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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