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794
FXUS65 KFGZ 251005
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, BRUSHING ARIZONA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD BEFORE THE SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT PRESCOTT AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. ON
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WIND A COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE
EXTRA SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY (COMPARED TO
THE EUROPEAN MODEL). OTHER THAN THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR VIS
IN SMOKE AT KGCN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AFT 18Z SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
-SHRA EXIST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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