[Printable]
781 FXUS65 KFGZ 040340 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 830 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...STRONGER WINDS...AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM OVER NEVADA AND UTAH SHOW AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND ALLOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LATEST DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT THERE ARE MANY MORE SIMILARITIES. THUS...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY WINDS...AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIY CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES AT 6-10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE UNTIL 18Z...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CEILING OF 4-6 KFT AGL. SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NE OF HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DB AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/MCS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
