781
FXUS65 KFGZ 040340
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...STRONGER
WINDS...AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM OVER NEVADA AND UTAH SHOW AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN
NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND ALLOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
LATEST DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA BY THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THERE REMAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
THERE ARE MANY MORE SIMILARITIES. THUS...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
A LARGE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY WINDS...AND INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIY CONDITIONS WITH
CLOUD BASES AT 6-10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE UNTIL 18Z...WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH CEILING OF 4-6 KFT AGL. SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS
WILL CONTINUE IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NE OF HIGH TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY
WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DB
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF