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139
FXUS62 KFFC 301140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OF DRY WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THU AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A COOL/DRY PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WAVE IN THE MAIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES SE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND BEGINS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION THU. THE MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF GA THOUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE STATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT BUT THEY ARE STILL VERY WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD
IS THE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS EXPECTED TO START OUT OF THE NW THEN
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH FROM THE NW TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE NE THEN CONTINUE TURNING TO THE EAST
AFTER 00Z THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  87  67 /   0   5  20  30
ATLANTA         84  68  85  68 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  58  79  62 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    85  62  86  66 /   0   5  10  20
COLUMBUS        87  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
GAINESVILLE     83  66  82  67 /   0   5  20  30
MACON           89  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
ROME            84  62  84  66 /   0   5  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  86  64  86  67 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         92  71  92  72 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...01






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