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133
FXUS62 KFFC 210648
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER DRY FROPA
ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. WE STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TRANSLATED SFC PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND
FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE GRADIENT WINDS FOR OUR AREA OUT OF THE
NW. MAGNITUDES SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF AREA /SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GA
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S/ AND HIGHS WED GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
NICE AND FALL-LIKE.

BAKER

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN AND POSSIBLY KCSG. SOME LINGERING CIRRUS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER DRY FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD SHOULD INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF NW THROUGH
TODAY INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS AFTER 15-17Z...THEN
DECREASING TO 4-7 KTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  44  69  40 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         73  48  68  46 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  38  62  33 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  41  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  49  72  44 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  65  43 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           79  45  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            75  42  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  42  69  38 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  52  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






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