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658
FXUS62 KFFC 210522
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...

MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS BUT WOULD AMOUNT TO
NO WORDING CHANGES IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS. HOURLY TEMPS WERE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL CURVE IS SETTLING DOWN
NOW. NO UPDATES TO PRODUCTS ANTICIPATED.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD PROGREES
FROM E TO SE...THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL BE AOB
10KT...SO WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  54  80  52 /   0  10  70  20
ATLANTA         75  59  77  53 /   0  10  70  20
BLAIRSVILLE     74  52  71  47 /   0  30  70  10
CARTERSVILLE    75  55  75  50 /   0  20  70  10
COLUMBUS        78  57  78  57 /   0  10  70  20
GAINESVILLE     74  56  75  51 /   0  20  70  10
MACON           77  53  80  55 /   0   5  60  20
ROME            76  55  74  51 /   0  30  70  10
PEACHTREE CITY  76  54  77  51 /   0  10  70  20
VIDALIA         77  54  81  59 /   0   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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