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000 FXUS64 KEWX 101123 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 523 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 10Z THURSDAY. SFC WINDS TODAY AT THE I-35 TERMINALS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS...KDRT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/ DISCUSSION... MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY ON THERMAL PROFILE OF THE AIRMASS WHICH WOULD DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SPEED OF UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD DETERMINE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECASTS AS MODEL AVERAGE SHOWS NO TRENDS. THE UPPER LOW SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO BORDER REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TODAY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS MORNING SPREADING TO REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY, THE STRONGEST LIFT, UPPER DIFFLUENCE, AND MOISTURE COINCIDE RESULTING IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE EVENT. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET AND SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WET BULB EFFECTS AND THE ENDING OF THE EVENT DUE TO COOLING OF THE AIRMASS COLUMN. EXPECT MOSTLY A COLD RAIN, HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ESCARPMENT AREAS. DUE TO WARM GROUND AND AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER EXPOSED SURFACES MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. OVER WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN STATES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED AND HAVE GONE WITH 10 POPS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN, OTHERWISE WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HPC QPF SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW, EXCEPT WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 45 35 41 35 55 / 40 100 100 70 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 36 42 34 56 / 40 100 100 70 - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 33 41 36 56 / 50 100 100 70 - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 43 33 37 32 51 / 40 100 100 70 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 38 44 36 67 / 50 70 60 20 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 45 34 39 34 52 / 30 100 100 70 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 37 44 34 60 / 70 100 100 60 - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 36 42 36 56 / 40 100 100 70 - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 46 37 43 38 52 / 30 80 100 80 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 45 36 43 36 59 / 60 100 100 60 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 45 37 43 35 60 / 60 100 100 70 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04/13