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037
FXUS64 KEWX 310420 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1120 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...ALL CONVECTION HAS NOW CEASED WITHIN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...NOT THAT ANY OF IT WAS THREATENING THE AERODROMES ANYWAY.
LEFTOVER CIRRUS FROM THIS CONVECTION AND CIRRUS STREAMING UP FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS THE MOST EXCITING THING OVER THE EWX CWFA
RIGHT NOW...WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HANGING ON.
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...AN MVFR DECK OF STRATUS WILL
FORM AND PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AERODROMES AS THE SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTEN. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AROUND MID-MORNING ON
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME MODERATE WITH BREEZY GUSTS AS CEILINGS
RISE. THE REVERSE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL COUPLE WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING CEILINGS TO ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE MVFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE NOTED ON KDFX RADAR... BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER...
WINDS AND DEW POINTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO A MAJORITY OF THE
EXISTING TAFS FOR WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...AND CLOUD COVER. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS APPLIED TO THE DRT TAF...AS KDFX
RADAR SHOWS A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CITY FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THUS...INSERTED A QUICK TEMPO FOR EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR RIGHT NOW
WILL YIELD TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DECK OF
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR MAY
TRY TO SHOW ITS HAND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





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