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089
FXUS64 KEWX 190850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LAST MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ALL OF THIS COMING TOGETHER OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO
INITIATE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND OVERALL STORM MOTION COULD BE A SLOW
5-10 KTS FOR RIGHT MOVING STORMS...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE NEARLY
DUE EAST GIVEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE ST. LOUIS
UNIVERSITY CIPS WEBSITE ANALOGS SHOW WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY FROM PAST SIMILAR EVENTS. AGREE WITH THE DAY 3 SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THIS THREAT AND HAVE TAKEN THE UNUSUAL STEP OF
INCLUDING IT IN THE HWO AND ZFP AT THIS RANGE AS A PRECAUTIONARY
HEADS-UP COMING OUT OF EASTER WEEKEND. THIS COULD IMPACT METRO
AUSTIN WITH SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...
BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26






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