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291
FXUS64 KEWX 210826
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






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