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FXUS64 KEPZ 032145
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
AGAIN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FIRST UP...AN OPEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL TRIGGER
A DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER THIS
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MAY SURPASS SUSTAINED 30 MPH WITH 50 MPH
GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BORDERLAND. AS RESULT A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SELECTED AREAS
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN A WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL EARLY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS DUST PRONE AREAS...SO A DUST
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT.
STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID DAY MONDAY AS CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH MORE AREAS
SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY
GUSTY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS AS EASTERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DEEPEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE
BORDER AREAS. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THOSE
AREAS. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR MASS KEEPS SNOW LEVELS AT 8000 FEET OR HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND ALONG EASTERN SLOPES.
THE LATE SEASON WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A
CLOSED LOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP TO 6000 FEET OUT WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
DOWN TO 5000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE WITHIN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CORE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING TO GENERATE LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG THE
WAY. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THE FOLLOWING MONDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
AVIATION....VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH P6SM SKC-SCT250 AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS. MINOR TO MODERATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING DUST MAY
DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS...MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE...BUT BRIEF/LOCALIZED
IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION....VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z.
WSW-W WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND GETTING INTO THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS. BLOWING DUST SO FAR NOT A
PROBLEM BUT STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE LRU/DMN/ELP. LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ELP AND OTHER EAST-SLOPE LOCATIONS...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW AWW CRITERIA AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH ALOFT SO LLWS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
BUT TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH
TOMORROW.
SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH STRONGER WINDS AND
MORE BLOWING DUST AND MVFR-IFR VISBYS. STILL A FAIRLY MODERATE EVENT
BY LOCAL STANDARDS BUT WINDS 25-30KT WITH GUSTS 40-45KT LIKELY LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE FINALLY
CATCHING UP AS OF 2 PM. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST SLOPE
LOCATIONS INTO PART OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL REDUCE RH RECOVERY.
BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...
BRINGING STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOWLAND AREAS...BUT THE COOLER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH
AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT OF CRITERIA...INCLUDING
THE GILA AND THE SACRAMENTOS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL WED-THU WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND INCLUDING
LOWLAND AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 54 78 46 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 73 39 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 42 72 39 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 74 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 52 20 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 74 38 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 39 68 35 66 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 71 36 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 71 35 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 76 47 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 74 35 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 42 78 40 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 43 70 35 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 40 79 39 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 74 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 73 43 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 72 29 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 37 71 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 75 39 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 40 77 36 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 39 63 25 54 27 / 10 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 35 60 22 55 31 / 10 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 34 60 22 51 23 / 10 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 67 25 58 33 / 10 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 69 34 60 36 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 73 32 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 64 26 61 32 / 10 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 40 66 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 35 71 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 67 24 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 68 34 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 72 34 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 73 30 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 75 31 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 70 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ404>407-
410>413-417.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR NMZ111-112.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR NMZ413-415-416.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR NMZ401>417.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>412-414-417.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ113.
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR TXZ055-056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR TXZ419-420.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR TXZ418>424.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418-421>424.
&&
$$
04/25 LUNDEEN/HARDIMAN