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881
FXUS64 KEPZ 281045
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INTO
THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MILDER
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR
MASS. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER A MUCH MORE COMPLICATED...ACTIVE
AND CHALLENGING SITUATION WILL DEVELOP.

A COLD WILL FIRST MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THUS EXPECT TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INITIALLY
FALL AROUND 10 DEGREES. CONCURRENTLY A COMPLEX HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO CALIFORNIA AND BAJA BY AFTERNOON.
BACKING FLOW AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH RELATIVELY WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH INTO NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHICH WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BUT AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/BAJA BORDER REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH 700 MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KT OVER THE
CWA. MEANWHILE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED AS MODELS SHOWING PRONOUNCED 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE COLD AIR DOME DURING THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE VIA DIFFERENTIAL
PVA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. FINALLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL FORCE PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS FROM .75 TO 1 INCH
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR WINTER. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY WITH OVER AN INCH OF WATER FALLING OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE INFLOW OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 7500 FEET DURING THIS TIME WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA WILDERNESS. HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING
ANY WATCHES.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA WITH CLOSED LOW DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THIS WILL
ALLOW COOL BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO GRADUALLY
FLOW INTO THE CWA AND END THE THREAT OF PRECIP MOST AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 15,000 FEET AGL.
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH LOWEST HUMIDITY AROUND
30 TO 40 PERCENT AND WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE BORDERLAND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER A FEW AREAS WITH UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER A FEW LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. EARLY NEXT
WEEK MILDER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  42  61  41  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
SIERRA BLANCA           72  41  57  39  47 /   0   0  10  40  60
LAS CRUCES              70  40  58  40  46 /   0   0  10  60  70
ALAMOGORDO              69  38  59  39  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
CLOUDCROFT              52  30  43  30  36 /   0   0  20  70  80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  39  56  39  46 /   0   0  10  70  60
SILVER CITY             68  38  56  38  44 /   0   0  20  70  80
DEMING                  71  38  59  40  46 /   0   0  10  60  70
LORDSBURG               70  39  61  40  48 /   0   0  10  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  44  61  44  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
DELL CITY               72  36  58  36  46 /   0   0  10  50  60
FORT HANCOCK            75  42  63  43  53 /   0   0  20  40  60
LOMA LINDA              67  43  56  38  44 /   0   0  20  60  70
FABENS                  73  40  61  40  50 /   0   0  20  50  70
SANTA TERESA            71  40  60  40  48 /   0   0  20  60  70
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  41  59  41  46 /   0   0  20  60  80
JORNADA RANGE           68  36  58  36  47 /   0   0  20  60  70
HATCH                   72  38  60  40  48 /   0   0  10  60  70
COLUMBUS                71  41  59  44  47 /   0   0  10  60  70
OROGRANDE               70  41  59  39  47 /   0   0  20  60  70
MAYHILL                 65  37  48  32  37 /   0   0  20  70  80
MESCALERO               58  32  48  32  39 /   0   0  20  70  80
TIMBERON                61  37  49  33  41 /   0   0  20  70  80
WINSTON                 63  36  51  38  41 /   0   0  20  80  60
HILLSBORO               66  40  55  40  45 /   0   0  10  70  70
SPACEPORT               69  38  59  38  48 /   0   0  10  60  70
LAKE ROBERTS            65  34  56  38  45 /   0   0  20  80  80
HURLEY                  67  37  56  37  44 /   0   0  10  70  70
CLIFF                   70  35  61  39  50 /   0   0  10  70  70
MULE CREEK              66  32  59  33  47 /   0   0  10  70  70
FAYWOOD                 67  40  57  40  44 /   0   0  10  70  70
ANIMAS                  72  38  63  40  51 /   0   0  10  60  60
HACHITA                 72  37  61  40  50 /   0   0  10  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          72  38  62  40  55 /   0   0  10  60  60
CLOVERDALE              71  41  61  43  53 /   0   0  10  60  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





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