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784
FXUS64 KEPZ 201029
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
429 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TO HELP FUEL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE
MAY GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION. WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THE HIGH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH GENERALLY SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE IN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE BACK
INTO TO THE WEST AND INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATER FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF RIO GRANDE
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
HEAVIEST RAIN FALL POTENTIAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE RIVER. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY DROP ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RAIN
AN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND GENERALLY LIGHT
IN INTENSITY.

FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LARGE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE WEST
COAST AND PULL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON
HOW SUBSEQUENT MODELS HANDLE THIS EVENT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
QUITE STRONG AS THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z - 21/12Z...
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH VSBY AOB 1-2SM POSSIBLE TILL 15Z.
AFT 15Z GENERALLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE VALID PD. AFT 18Z...ISOLD
1-3SM +TSRA BKN020-030. VARIABLE EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 8KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE COMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT INCREASE ON
BACK SIDE OF FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  68  85  67  82 /  20  20  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           83  62  80  63  77 /  30  30  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              85  65  83  65  81 /  20  20  40  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              87  64  84  65  83 /  20  20  40  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              68  49  63  48  62 /  40  40  60  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   85  64  83  64  82 /  20  30  30  40  30
SILVER CITY             82  61  79  61  78 /  30  30  40  40  30
DEMING                  85  64  84  64  83 /  20  20  30  40  30
LORDSBURG               88  64  84  65  85 /  20  30  30  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      88  69  86  67  83 /  20  20  40  40  30
DELL CITY               88  64  84  64  83 /  30  30  50  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            89  68  86  67  84 /  20  20  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              80  63  79  61  76 /  20  20  40  40  30
FABENS                  91  65  88  66  84 /  20  20  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            86  66  85  65  83 /  20  20  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  65  84  65  79 /  20  20  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           87  61  85  62  81 /  20  20  40  40  30
HATCH                   85  62  82  63  81 /  20  20  40  40  30
COLUMBUS                86  64  85  65  82 /  20  20  30  40  30
OROGRANDE               86  66  83  66  81 /  20  20  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 74  54  68  53  69 /  30  50  60  50  50
MESCALERO               77  54  72  55  72 /  30  40  60  50  50
TIMBERON                74  53  70  53  69 /  30  40  60  50  50
WINSTON                 77  54  73  55  73 /  30  30  40  40  40
HILLSBORO               82  60  77  60  76 /  20  30  40  40  30
SPACEPORT               86  62  82  62  82 /  20  20  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            81  55  79  56  77 /  30  30  50  50  40
HURLEY                  83  61  80  63  80 /  30  30  40  40  30
CLIFF                   85  58  83  59  83 /  30  30  40  40  30
MULE CREEK              83  52  82  53  80 /  30  30  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 83  61  80  62  78 /  20  30  40  40  30
ANIMAS                  86  64  85  64  85 /  30  30  30  40  30
HACHITA                 89  62  85  62  84 /  20  20  30  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  61  85  61  83 /  30  30  30  40  30
CLOVERDALE              84  59  82  61  82 /  30  40  30  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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