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775 FXUS64 KEPZ 030905 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 305 AM MDT THU OCT 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE BORDERLAND WE CAN EXPECT WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THEN CROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH ENROUTE TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PLACES US UNDER A CONTINUATION OF BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RATHER BREEZY DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN JET ALOFT PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY WILL REMAIN MILD TO WARM ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AS WE WILL SEE ONLY A SMALL DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS PASSING SYSTEM WILL BE REALIZED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A RATHER STRONG SIDE DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA. 1000-500MB THICKNESS FALLS SUPPORT MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT INDICATING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE CAN EXPECT THE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO PERSIST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW. RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING US TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL AGAIN WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC- FEW250 AT ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH 24014G24KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WE WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS KEEPING OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES OUT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND WILL PUSH A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH SUNDAY REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WELL. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 88 61 84 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 87 55 82 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 88 52 83 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 88 60 82 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 65 42 61 31 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 86 56 79 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 78 49 73 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 87 50 83 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 86 53 84 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 89 60 83 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 89 54 83 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 91 52 84 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 83 54 75 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 FABENS 90 55 84 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 88 55 82 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 87 55 82 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 87 45 81 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 HATCH 84 54 83 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 88 53 85 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 88 56 82 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 73 49 68 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 MESCALERO 75 41 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 TIMBERON 73 52 68 41 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 WINSTON 74 42 71 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 80 53 76 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 85 53 79 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 77 46 73 39 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 80 51 74 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 81 44 77 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 81 36 76 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 78 49 78 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 87 53 82 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 86 55 83 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 86 57 85 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 81 55 78 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 27 LANEY