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527
FXUS64 KEPZ 011947
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
147 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TONIGHT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT WILL HELP
DROP THURSDAY`S HIGHS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THE
WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US SUNNY AND WARM WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... AND WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MONSOON SEASON IS OVER BOTH METEOROLOGICALLY SPEAKING
AND ON THE CALENDAR. THE WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED IN AND THAT HAS
ALLOWED SOME VERY DRY AIR TO INVADE THE REGION. MOISTURE IS
LURKING TO OUR SOUTH IN MEXICO...BUT IT NEVER GETS DRAWN UP BACK
TO THE NORTH. TODAY A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH
THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WE WON`T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN MAYBE
A FEW CLOUDS. THEN LATER TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL HELP SLICE A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR
HIGHS...SO TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP US SUNNY AND DRY AND HELP OUR TEMPERATURES RUN 4 TO 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN AND WE WILL SEE RETURN TO A MORE DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CONTINUATION OF WARM WEATHER. FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A VERY STRONG PUSH NOR DOES
IT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AN
SEE WHAT FUTURE MODELS RUNS DEVELOP FOR US.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z - 03/00Z...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU END OF FCST PD. A WK LEE TROF IN
ERN NMEX WILL ALIGN THE GRADIENT FROM W TO E. THRU ABOUT 09Z. AFT
09Z A WEAK CLD FROM THE N WILL SIFT WINDS AS IT PUSHES SWD INTO SRN
NMEX. THRU PD: SKC-FEW 080. WINDS 00Z-09Z: 230-270 12G22KT. WINDS
AFT 09Z:  290-010/12KTS. OCNL LGT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES
COURTESY OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE. A DRY WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS TONIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE HAINES INDEX WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 4 CATEGORY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM RH FIELD WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 15% TO 25
LEVEL LOWLANDS AND 20% TO 30% ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY,

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 61  82  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  75  49  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  78  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  76  47  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              41  59  36  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  77  47  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  72  45  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  52  79  47  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  80  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      61  81  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               57  80  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            59  81  50  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              59  74  52  70  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  83  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  80  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  74  48  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           48  76  42  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   50  74  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                55  79  53  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               56  75  51  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  65  41  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               47  66  42  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                46  64  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  68  39  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  71  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  77  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  71  37  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  75  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   44  76  43  76  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              41  74  40  74  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  73  46  71  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  55  80  51  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 51  78  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  78  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  79  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN






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