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426 FXUS64 KEPZ 202017 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 217 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEK. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND DRY. && .DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY PORTION OF WELL DEFINED DEEP UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN PRODUCING A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WITH TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR MASS. MIXING HEIGHTS TO NEAR 600 MB ALSO ALLOWING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH AND WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY AIR INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THUS EXPECT TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES LOWER. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK INDICATING LIGHTER WINDS. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THAT BOTH MODELS MOVE UNSEASONABLY DEEP HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY WITH SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY. CONCURRENTLY RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS. RESULTANT GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MOISTURE INFLOW POSSIBLE. THE GFS INCREASES DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 50 F OVER HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES WHERE CAPES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE AN INCH INDICATING RISK OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN CONTRAST HOWEVER ECMWF KEEPS DRY LINE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST WITH A REDUCED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STAY WITH THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND FORECAST SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ELSEWHERE CONTINUED INFLOW OF DRIER AIR VIA SOUTHWEST WINDS SUGGESTS A PERSISTENCE OF WARM DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY 18 TO 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 28 TO 33 KNOTS...BRIEFLY HIGHER IN AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. KELP WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH THE LOWER END OF AWW CRITERIA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS FOR TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NE AZ WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH THE LOWER-END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH FOLLOWED BY A QUICK REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING WITH ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATING SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE DRYLINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC-GEM KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE TRANSPECOS AND EASTERN PLAINS. LIKEWISE THE GFS HAS THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EAST COMING IN ON SATURDAY...FIGURING ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEND SOME OUTFLOW WESTWARD HELPING PUSH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY...DRIER/ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 67 88 65 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 59 85 58 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 55 85 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 54 85 55 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 40 61 40 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 84 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 50 82 51 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 52 86 53 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 51 86 53 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 64 85 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 52 86 54 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 62 90 59 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 55 78 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 FABENS 64 87 61 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 59 85 59 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 64 85 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 47 85 47 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 HATCH 58 81 56 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 58 86 59 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 55 88 54 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 46 72 48 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 MESCALERO 41 73 42 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 TIMBERON 39 72 42 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 WINSTON 45 75 48 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 53 81 52 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 55 83 51 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 45 77 45 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 51 80 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 47 87 46 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 37 83 37 88 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 51 80 53 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 53 86 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 53 85 51 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 55 87 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 50 82 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055. && $$ 05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN