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548
FXUS64 KEPZ 152010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDY...WARMER AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
WARM DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ARE BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BUT
SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SUSTAINING TRANSPORT OF
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER
WAVE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE LEE SURFACE CYCLONE
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY LOW AND MID LEVEL
WESTERLY GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THE INFLOW OF WARM
DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RAISE AFTERNOON MIXING
HEIGHTS TO 550 MB RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. AT
MOMENT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER
TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES AT MOST AS AIR MASS
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

CLOSED UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERLY BRANCH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE CWA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY
WHILE DPVA/DYNAMIC LIFT ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM
.7 INCH IN THE WEST TO AN INCH IN THE EAST. LITTLE RAINFALL
FORECASTED ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER LIFT. HOWEVER WILL FORECAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EASTERN HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES
WHERE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 50 KT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR
FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND EVEN MID LEVEL ROTATION SO ANY STORMS
MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 7000 FEET AGL ALSO INDICATE
THREAT OF HAIL DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

AFTER UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND IT WILL PUSH WARM DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS MOVES A VERY
DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WHILE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL OUTLOOK WARM DRY WEATHER EXTENDED PERIODS
UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z-17/00Z...
P6SM FEW150-200 FEW-SCT250 THRU PD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10KTS
THROUGH 12Z THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO
15-25G30-35KTS AROUND 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
THEM TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S CREATING EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL TAP SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 52  84  56  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           42  82  48  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  80  51  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              43  79  48  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              32  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  79  51  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             39  72  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  39  81  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               42  80  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  82  55  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  81  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            47  88  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              46  74  47  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  47  84  52  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            47  82  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          51  80  57  77  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           37  79  41  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   40  79  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  80  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               43  82  47  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 36  66  40  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               34  68  36  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                32  66  36  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  72  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               46  75  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  77  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  70  39  72  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  38  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   36  79  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              28  75  31  76  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 40  73  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  82  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  80  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  82  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  77  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ








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