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715
FXUS64 KEPZ 011907
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
107 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A BIG THREAT INTO AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAIN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURN TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DO DIFFER ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WHICH IS TYPICAL
IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWING PW`S OF 1.6 THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER HAMPERING TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GILA REGION. LINGERING ELONGATED VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE BORDER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT TO SEE BEST CHANCE OVER EAST REMAINING WHERE
ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY AT...OVER EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN
OTERO COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING
WILL BE THE GILA REGION AND TOWARD LORDSBURG WHERE BETTER
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE. STORM MOTION ABOUT 5KTS OR LESS
ACROSS AREA SO WITH RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO
BE A THREAT AND WILL LEAVE FF WATCH GOING AS IS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR
SAT EXCEPT MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND SETS UP SOME DECENT LOWER AND
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIVER WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER AND MORNING
PRECIPITATION PLAYING HAVOC WITH SOLAR INSOLATION. COOLER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BETTER LATELY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST AND MAY BRING IN JUST ENOUGH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FAR EAST TO KEEP IT GENERALLY DRY THERE. KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING WEST AND TAPERED DOWN TO THE EAST...NOT SURE LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT AS MUCH DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS THE
GFS IS INDICATING. ECMWF SUPPORTS DRYING OVER HUDSPETH ON
MONDAY...JUST NOT AS MUCH AGAIN AS GFS. WENT WITH 40 POPS WEST AND
DOWN TO 20 IN THE FAR EAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES.

RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN A BIT GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATING INCREASED
POPS FOR WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
BACK EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING WITH PW`S DOWN TO AN INCH...SO SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN ALLOWING FOR HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-060 BKN-OVC100-120 WITH SCT TO NMRS 1-3SM
BKN020-030 SHOWERS AND TSMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS OVER
FAR WEST TX AND OVER GILA REGION THRU 12Z AND ALL AREAS AGAIN AFT
18Z. EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MTS COULD AGAIN SEE SCT-BKN010-020
BETWEEN 10Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND STARTING SUNDAY FROM THE EAST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
MOVE IN...HOWEVER A DAILY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS EACH
DAY WITH WESTERN ZONES HAVING GREATEST CHANCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  85  68  87  70 /  70  60  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           67  83  68  84  64 /  60  40  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              65  83  66  86  66 /  70  60  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              66  82  67  84  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  64  51  66  51 /  80  70  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  81  66  83  66 /  60  60  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             61  78  62  77  63 /  70  70  60  50  40
DEMING                  66  83  66  85  66 /  60  60  60  40  40
LORDSBURG               66  83  66  85  68 /  70  60  60  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  84  68  86  70 /  60  60  40  40  30
DELL CITY               66  84  67  86  66 /  60  40  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            67  85  67  87  69 /  60  40  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              64  85  65  83  64 /  60  50  40  40  20
FABENS                  68  85  66  87  68 /  60  50  40  30  20
SANTA TERESA            64  84  65  86  69 /  60  60  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  85  68  87  68 /  60  60  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  83  67  87  67 /  60  60  50  50  30
HATCH                   64  83  65  85  66 /  60  60  50  50  30
COLUMBUS                66  84  67  86  67 /  70  60  60  40  30
OROGRANDE               64  85  65  86  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  71  58  74  59 /  80  80  50  40  20
MESCALERO               56  71  57  73  57 /  70  70  40  40  30
TIMBERON                59  71  60  73  56 /  70  60  40  40  20
WINSTON                 58  79  59  79  60 /  70  80  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               65  84  66  86  65 /  60  70  50  50  40
SPACEPORT               65  82  66  84  66 /  60  60  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  82  62  82  61 /  90  80  60  50  50
HURLEY                  62  78  63  80  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
CLIFF                   54  81  55  83  63 /  90  70  60  50  50
MULE CREEK              62  80  63  82  64 /  80  60  70  50  40
FAYWOOD                 63  83  64  82  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
ANIMAS                  65  84  66  85  67 /  80  60  60  50  40
HACHITA                 64  85  65  86  66 /  80  60  60  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  83  65  85  66 /  80  50  60  40  40
CLOVERDALE              62  81  63  83  62 /  80  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

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