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574
FXUS64 KEPZ 232133
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH ROARED INTO THE BORDERLAND TODAY...WILL
EXIT TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DECREASING AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY...AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
STARTS TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR WEST WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH ITS WAY UNIMPEDED THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
STATE OF NEW MEXICO BY MIDNIGHT. HENCE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER AND DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS AIR IS ALSO VERY DRY AND
WILL PUSH OUR DEW POINTS INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG DOWN IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AND FURTHER DEEPEN THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST U.S. WHICH IN TURN WILL INTENSIFY
THE RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE F COOL DOWN OF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR OUR AREA.

WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY FAST AND PROGRESSIVE 5 TO 6
WAVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET
VERY ACTIVE PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 35 DEGREES N LATITUDE. THUS OUR
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL START TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AFTER
MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER DRY SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND
THANKSGIVING FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD
SOME BUT THE NET RESULT WILL STILL BRING US WARMER AND CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WE SEE AT THIS TIME IS A MODERATE
TO STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST AROUND DECEMBER
3. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATIONS WITH
THIS SYTEM WHILE THE EURO IS LESS INTENSE IN AMPLITUDE AND BRINGS
IT ACROSS AS A MINOR DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEC 2.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS...HIGHEST EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER MORE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THEY DIMINISH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
SKC-SCT300...WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AS WELL.
EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE AFFECTED A WIDER AREA OF THE
LOWLANDS THAN EXPECTED...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...
AND OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...YIELDING MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.
ALSO EXPECT SOME FRIGID NIGHTS AHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 34  55  30  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           31  53  27  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              28  54  26  50  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              28  49  25  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  36  14  35  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  51  26  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             29  48  24  47  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  26  54  25  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  54  22  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      34  53  29  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               30  54  26  51  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            33  57  28  54  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  48  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  30  55  26  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            30  54  27  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          32  51  29  49  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           20  52  23  50  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   23  53  26  51  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                30  55  28  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               29  51  27  50  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 23  44  17  43  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               21  42  17  41  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  43  19  41  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 21  46  21  46  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  50  27  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               24  53  22  51  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            21  47  21  48  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  27  50  23  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   17  53  19  50  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              16  51  15  48  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 30  49  27  47  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  27  56  24  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 26  56  23  53  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          28  58  25  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  57  27  52  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ402-403-407>417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN






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