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881
FXUS64 KEPZ 222057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TONIGHT TO GIVE US A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. ON WEDNESDAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP GIVE US SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS NICE
WITH SUN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIR AT
THE SURFACE IS RELATIVELY DRY SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A
STORM FORMED. IF ONE DOES GET GOING WE DO HAVE ENOUGH SHEER AND
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
HAIL OR MORE LIKELY SOME STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. BY LATE
EVENING THE DRY AIR FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MOVED IN ENDING ANY
FURTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ON WEDNESDAY THE FIRST OF
TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH WINDS MIX DOWN OF STRONG WINDS TO GIVE US
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO I`VE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL GIVE US NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A NICE END TO THE WEEK.

THEN ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING WELL TIMED
TO BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GIVE US
SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS.
RIGHT NOW SATURDAY IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A VERY GOOD DAY TO BE
OUTSIDE. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WE WILL SEE A DRY BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE AN
EXTENDED COOL PERIOD WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A LARGE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE EXTENDED GFS HAS EL PASO IN THE MID 70`S
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
BEARISH ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60`S.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
SLGT RISK ISOLD CLD BLDUPS/CB/TSTM UNTIL 03Z MAINLY VCNTY MTNS N
SVC-ALM LINE (VRB30G40KT 6SM -TSRA BLDU BKN070CB). OTHERWISE WINDS
SSE-SSW 10G20KT SCT070 SCT120 SCT-BKN250. AFT 18Z WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR AIR TROUGH WINDS BECOMING SW 25-35 G 45KT 3-6 SM
BLDU. MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THESE STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAIN BUT HAVE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH DRYING AND
WINDY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING OF FUELS TO PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GENERATE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  86  60  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           54  84  53  80  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  84  52  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              55  83  52  77  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  59  36  54  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  80  53  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  75  41  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  51  82  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  80  48  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  86  58  80  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  81  46  82  48 /  20   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  90  56  86  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  79  52  74  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  85  54  81  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  85  52  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  82  62  78  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  82  45  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   49  81  46  77  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                60  81  53  77  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               54  85  53  80  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  70  42  66  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  71  37  67  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  69  37  65  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  75  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  78  51  73  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               54  78  50  75  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  73  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  77  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  76  38  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  74  35  72  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  76  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  56  82  52  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  81  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  83  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  79  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN






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