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823
FXUS64 KEPZ 290920
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
320 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUD BUILD UPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT UP WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN A STABLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE THAT WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL NOT IMPROVE
UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.

WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY EACH DAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON BUILD UP OF CLOUDS OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. DRY AIR WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW AREAS
ALONG THE BORDER GETTING CLOSE TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK DURING THE
WEEKEND. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAY INCREASE WINDS FROM THE
WEST INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE PART OF THE DAY.

AFTER LABOR DAY WEEKEND ON TUESDAY...MODELS PROJECT THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REFORM MORE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND MAY NEED A BOOST
FROM AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION NEXT
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z - 30/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FEW-SCT100 MAINLY EAST OF KELP. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY.  A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP TO 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
LOWER MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH UPPER TEENS
EXPECTED. MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL RAISE VALUES BACK UP
TO 50 PERCENTILE RANGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 10
MPH MOST DAYS. A PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH MAY INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 95  72  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           93  65  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              94  66  96  67  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              93  65  94  67  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              73  48  72  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  65  94  67  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             87  59  88  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  94  64  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               94  62  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      93  70  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               95  66  97  66  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            95  69  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              89  67  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  98  68  96  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  68  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  66  96  67  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           92  62  94  64  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   95  65  96  64  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                92  67  95  68  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               94  68  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 81  54  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               84  55  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                81  56  83  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 79  56  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               87  61  88  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               90  65  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            85  52  86  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  90  61  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   90  56  92  59  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              87  54  89  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 86  61  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  94  65  92  67  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 94  61  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          94  63  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              89  63  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN






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