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314
FXUS66 KEKA 252307
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
307 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

...WET THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
IN TRINITY COUNTY...WILL PROBABLY SEE FOG AND LOW OVERCAST AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRATUS (AND PERHAPS FOG) THAT HAS BEEN
LURKING 10-15NM FROM SHORE WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY AS SE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER ALONG THE COAST TODAY THANKS
TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND
CLEARER SKIES HAS ALSO RESULTED IN HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PLACES LIKE KNEELAND AND YOLLA
BOLLA TOPPED OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS
IN THE TRINITY RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED INTO THE LOWER 50S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH AND MIDDLE LAYER CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THU AND PERHAPS IN THE INTERIOR OF
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES BY THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OREGON
CALIFORNIA BORDER...SO MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD BACK OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY THRU
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BODES WELL FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN DEL NORTE COUNTY...BUT NOT SO WELL FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS RAIN RAMPING UP FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE LENGTH TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. CONTINUOUS RAINFALL SHOULD
LET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY AND THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND WITH HIGHER RATES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AS STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR SHARP RISES ON RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREAKS AND FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROCK OR MUD SLIDES AS WELL AS LOCALIZED MINOR
STREET FLOODING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITS TO THE EAST AND
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE STORM THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...WITH SNOW LEVELS STAYING ABOVE
ALL THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA; ABOVE 5500 TO
6000 FT THAT IS. LEVELS WILL FALL EARLY NEXT WEEK, MON NIGHT AND
TUE. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL OFF TO SCATTERED OR
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
ANY OF THE MAJOR HIGHWAY PASSES OF NW CALIFORNIA. //END

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ONCE AGAIN FOUND ACROSS SOME OF
THE INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
REPORTED. VFR HAS PREVAILED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO HAZE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TO
PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR
RIVER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG FORM. STP

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING THEN
BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER WAVE TRAIN ARRIVES. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STEEP
SOUTHERLY WAVES BUILD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WINDS EASING AND
VEERING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDING SEAS LATE
MONDAY. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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