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001
FXUS66 KEKA 301106
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
406 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE
SAME TIME AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP TURNING
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO INTERIOR
VALLEYS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
AREAS OF TRINITY COUNTY TO EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON. ADDITIONALLY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR COASTAL STRATUS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT EACH NIGHT. THUS LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH NIGHT AFTER
THE COLDEST MORNINGS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE WEST COAST. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND. BEHIND
THIS FRONT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY. ALONG
THE COAST...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND...EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NORTHERLY MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 6-8 FT. THERE WAS NO ASCAT PASS
OVER OUR WATERS THIS MORNING, BUT THE BUOYS WERE GENERALLY WITHIN 5
KT OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING
TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TODAY, PERSISTING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ZONE 475 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SO UPGRADED THE GL.A TO A GL.W FOR THIS ZONE. ZONE 470
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS, SO DROPPED
THE GL.A AND WENT WITH A SC.Y. BUT THIS WILL BE A HIGH END SC.Y.
HOWEVER, SEAS IN THAT ZONE WILL BECOME STEEP, SO ISSUED A SE.W FOR
THAT ZONE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE
SC.Y`S GOING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SEE THE MWW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING FROM BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A STRENGTHENING THERMAL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN POORER
RH RECOVERIES ON RIDGETOPS EACH NIGHT AND LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FALLING INTO THE TEENS OR POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL LIKELY REDUCING THE RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS CURRENTLY REDUCED. THUS ONLY A
HEADLINE FOR THE WIND AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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