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190
FXUS66 KEKA 201051 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
351 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY. A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY RESULTING IN NICE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER TO MIDDLE 30S IN INTERIOR TRINITY COUNTY...SO A
FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE DRIER RIDGE
TODAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY
BRINGING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN -25C
AND -30C TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANY STRONGER SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING TUESDAY.
THUS WIDESPREAD SMALL HAIL SHOWERS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LIMITED. THUS SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FOR MID-NEXT WEEK AND NOW
INDICATES A WARM FRONT MAY NOT MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. THUS RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRIMARILY
FROM CAPE MENDOCINO NORTH. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY BUT MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED MUCH FURTHER IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. LITTLE
HAS CHANGED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHERE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATES A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST SENDING
SHORTWAVES TOWARD THE AREA. THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON THE
SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR
DECENT CHANCES OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE HAS RETURNED TO THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH COAST
AIRPORTS HAVE HAD POCKETS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
COASTAL AIRFIELDS. INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT PATCHY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING. MKN

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING AT THE COAST AT THIS TIME
WILL PEAK TODAY AROUND 16 TO 17 FEET. THIS MORNING SIG WAVES AT BUOY
46027 NEAR CEC IS SEEING 18 FEET AT 16 SECONDS AS SWELL FRONT
ARRIVES. HIGH SURF ADVISORY COVERS THE THREAT AT THE BEACHES WITH
HIGHEST BREAKERS AROUND 22 FT EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN AFFECT FOR HAZ SEAS OVER ALL WATERS
AS THIS LARGE SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE SEA STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS IT GRADUALLY
SUBSIDES AND DECAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS. NONE OF
THESE FRONTS WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE
WET AND INCLEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MKN





&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON CAZ001.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON CAZ002.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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