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913 FXUS63 KEAX 240459 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014 The main challenge for tonight is the potential for dense fog tonight or whether the lower stratus will redevelop. The boundary layer is very moist both from recent rainfall but more so from moist advection into the area. This is leading guidance depicting high probabilities for fog development. The 23/15Z SREF shows probabilities of seeing less than a mile visibility around 75%. But there is an equal probability of low stratus. Soundings suggest that we don`t fully decouple and the result would be low stratus with more minor fog development. For now, have added areas of fog to northern/northeastern MO and patchy fog for the rest of the forecast area. Have also increased cloud cover for the overnight period to get some mention of clouds but not certain on when/if or even where any stratus may redevelop have at this point have not gone more than about 50% sky cover over the forecast area after the current stratus either moves away or breaks up. Otherwise, the weather for the weekend looks to be calm and warm for this time of year. For Friday, highs near 80 seem likely given the very warm air aloft. However, if cloud cover hangs on later than expected, temperatures may not rebound as high as forecast. Clouds seem more likely to linger over the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area so temperatures closer to 70 look more likely in the Kirksville area. A weak front may move into/through the area on Saturday and knock a few degrees off temperatures compared to Friday. This should be short-lived through as winds again return from the south and allow temperatures to climb to or above 80 degrees. This around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year so very warm for late October. Our next good chance for rain looks to be Monday and Monday night. A progressive shortwave trough will track across the Central Plains and into the Midwest with its associated front trailing through our region. This should lead to showers and a storms during the day Monday with thunderstorms diminishing Monday night as instability wanes. The precipitation should move of the area by Tuesday, though the GEM is the slowest with the trough and keeps a fair amount of rain in the area through the day. Have side more with the GFS and ECMWF, which have been handling the recent upper waves more consistently, and trimmed back POPs for Tuesday to just the far eastern zones. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge will rebuild over the west with northwesterly flow regime over the Plains and Missouri Valley. This looks to keep temperatures closer to seasonal normals with dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014 Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts. Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Friday FOR MOZ003>008-013>017- 021>025-030>032. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...73