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955 FXUS63 KEAX 210345 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1045 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014 Tonight: On-going convection over northeast Kansas associated with pre-frontal trough out ahead of main cold front still draped through central Iowa into eastern Nebraska. As upper trough begins to carve out over Great Lakes this afternoon should see more of a southward push on the surface boundary bringing the threat for thunderstorms into the forecast area. Convection will likely be scattered so going 40-50 percent PoPs tapering from northwest to southeast for this evening still seems to be on track. Although decent instability is noted particularly over northeast Missouri thus far it has been insufficient to overcome weak capping. In addition wind shear appears marginal and mainly confined to the northeast of the forecast area. With that said threat for severe thunderstorms appears low, however isolated storms with some larger hail or damaging winds certainly cannot be ruled out. Sunday-Monday Surface cold front forecast to push southward overnight and clear the southern portion of the forecast area before 12z Sunday. Cooler and drier air should settle into the region as surface high builds in for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures generally in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014 By late Monday night the surface ridge will begin to move east of the area causing surface winds to come around from the south/southeast, allowing for some moisture transport to flow back into the area. With mid level ridging over the area expect the forecast to be dry through at least Tuesday morning before the next weak trough moves through for the middle part of next week. As the trough approaches it will provide enough mid level ascent to give a decent chance for some showers, however given that the moisture transport doesn`t look impressive, and neither does the amount of ascent expect rain to be generally light in nature. ECMWF hints that the mid level trough will have a hard time sustaining it`s low pressure through the late part of the week, which would suggest that the mid level ridge would become the dominant feature for the late part of the week. Once the ridge takes over, conditions should become dry through the late part of the week. Temperatures through the extended forecast should be near seasonal, with highs in the 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014 Clear skies will be the rule throughout the TAF cycle. Light northwest winds through the morning hours will pick up during the afternoon to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Winds will subside tomorrow evening becoming lgt and vrb as high pressure builds into the region. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mitchell LONG TERM...Leighton AVIATION...73