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429
FXUS63 KDMX 242336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING WITH DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...KOTM AND KALO LIKELY WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING IN MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROF WITH AREAS OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS REMAINING. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
TROF...ANTICIPATE BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY AS DRY AIR ENTERS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




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