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261
FXUS63 KDLH 310616
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
116 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

WE ADJUSTED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SHOWERS WERE PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THEY WERE NOT LASTING FOR VERY LONG. THE OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BOTH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
SNOWBELT OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WHICH WILL SEE LES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW-SE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND INTO NRN/NWRN WI THIS EVENING WITH
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF ASHLAND
AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH FRI MORNING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR IRON COUNTY FROM
7 PM THROUGH 11 AM TOMORROW WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
UPSON TO MONTREAL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 8 PM TONIGHT AND 4 AM FRI MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL S/W IS CURRENTLY SLIDING SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND
WILL BRUSH THE ARROWHEAD AND WRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER NRN LAKE MI...BUT THE FLOW ON THE WRN EDGE
OF THE LOW...ACROSS NE MN/WRN LS...IS BEING ENHANCED BY A LARGE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA WHICH IS TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING GUSTY N/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER S/W IS CAUSING AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WHICH IS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL/BL INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE TO ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES. THE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER FROM THE NAM/RAP AND LOCAL WRF MODEL ARE ALL INDICATING
AN AREA OF FAVORED CONDITIONS FOR LOCALIZED HVY SNOW BANDS. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LOCATIONS IN WRN ONTARIO EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MDT-HVY SN WAS REPORTED...AND HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT OF BRIEF VERY
HEAVY SNOW SOUTH OF I-FALLS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND REGION WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
30S. AS THIS AIR MASS ROLLS SWD THROUGH THE REGION THE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND AS THIS AIR MASS MOVES
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE THIS
EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES...IN THE
ELEVATED REGIONS OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES IN
ASHLAND...AND 2-4 INCHES IN IRON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER NRN WI FROM WEST TO EAST FRI MORNING
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MORNING...BUT DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE THE SEASONS COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. WIDESPREAD TEENS ARE FORECASTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH LOWER 20S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY MODERATING TO THE MID 40S
ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THE
NORTHLAND WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON TUESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEFORE ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHLAND. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS...IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG WINDS CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS OVER THE SOUTH
SHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LONGER OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
UNTIL DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  20  41  29 /   0   0   0   0
INL  35  17  42  26 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  20  42  28 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  36  16  42  27 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  37  21  45  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...LE








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