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286
FXUS63 KDLH 231743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT A BIT. DEFORMATION AREA
WAS TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
HOLDING IT OFF A BIT DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA RANGED FROM THE TEENS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO
20S ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
MODIFICATIONS AND MAY EVEN HAVE TO RAISE THEM MORE IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NE MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY SE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM DRY AIR OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
AROUND 8 TO 12 KFT. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
STRETCHING FROM NE NORTH DAKOTA TO SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE INTO THE NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...SUCH AS AT KDLH AND KHIB WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME -SN MIXED IN WITH THE -RA.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW AT
KDLH/KHIB/KINL...LATER THURSDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE KBRD AND KHYR COULD SEE BRIEF WIND SHEAR ISSUES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SSE WINDS OF
ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT. THESE WINDS ARE
NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING WIND SHEAR TO THE
FORECASTS...BUT IF NEWER MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS...THEN WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR. IT APPEARS THE SSE WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONGEST AT KBRD AND KHYR...SO THAT IS WHERE WIND SHEAR
WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  33  42  32 /  10 100  90  60
INL  57  36  43  32 /  10 100  90  70
BRD  49  38  49  35 /  80  90  80  20
HYR  57  38  49  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  51  36  45  33 /  10  80  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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